RT
@DrProfitCrypto:
#Bitcoin – What’s Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown
I have finished building the long positions I announced and entered between $80K and $81K. My average entry is now $80,400 for the longs, while my average spot entry is between 60-64k. Remember the sequence: My earlier predictions called a breakout above $82,500, followed by $88K, and it happened, and the time I made the prediction Bitcoin was trading at 60k. After the move into that target area, I prepared for the correction. At $88K, when everyone was calling for $100K, I was calling for $79K. Bitcoin did indeed crash to $80K, so I closed my entire short at $80,600, bought more Bitcoin spot and opened a long at that same price. I stopped waiting for the exact $79K target. The short served its purpose. It was a correction WITHIN a bull market, not my announcement of another bear market. To this day, BTC is still trading in the region I identified when it was at $88K. This tells me one thing: the $80K–$81K area, even extending down to $79K, is an accumulation zone. This can be observed clearly: spot demand is higher in this region, while long positions are also being built. If we analyse retail behaviour at this stage, we notice that MOST retail traders are extremely bearish. I will discuss this further below.
The $80K area is also a VERY IMPORTANT support level for bigger players, and this is something smaller retail players ignore. The average buying cost of Bitcoin for treasuries is at $80,200, with treasury and US spot ETF average entry buys are around $80K–$81.5K. It also reported that Binance spot bids around $80K had rebuilt by October 20 after the earlier correction from $88k. Meanwhile, realized profit-taking had slowed to roughly half its pace around the September high. Overall, this means the average entry of institutional investors sits around $80K–$81.5K, and profit-taking has slowed significantly. This tells me that the current selling pressure is coming from retail investors, combined with short positions in the futures market, while spot selling can be seen at the current prices from short term holders, but mid and long term holders do not dare to sell their BTC they bought at 60-70k. These conditions usually occur at local bottoms, and this is exactly why I am going long in the $80K–$81K region.
Now compare this with market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is at 54, but I question this reading because I see much more fear in the market right now. The reason is very simple: the Fear & Greed Index uses a calculation model, and most investors who purchased BTC in the last two to three months are currently sitting in profit. Those investors are experienced because they bought the bottom, they knew when to enter, its correct to call it smart money, while inexperienced investors have either not entered the market yet or are among those who sold in the last few days. To make my point clear: if BTC were at $120K right now, retail concentration in BTC would be high, the Fear & Greed Index’s formula would place BTC in the fear zone. However, there has not been much panic selling from experienced investors so far, only a large number of weak hands have been shaken out. So the Fear and Greed formula analyses 100% of the BTC owners behaviour, and sees that the 80% of experienced traders are holding and not scared. But if the Fear and Greed would be applied on the remaining 20% in the market, which are a massive minority, the fear and greed would be at extreme fear levels right now.
Now I explained you my points why I believe this is the bottom region, and I hope it makes sense. I keep holding my spot positions from 60-64k, and my longs from 80-81k and my target is the area of 94k. What I would love to see now is BTC reclaiming the EMA50 and close the daily above, and even if it does not, it becomes an indicator the bears can use and nothing else. I am confident that this is the local bottom
This week’s calendar is HOT: we have the FOMC decision on October 28. The numbers show an 89.7% probability of unchanged rates and a 10.3% probability of a quarter-point hike. My live entries, additions and position updates are shared exclusively in Premium.(
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY.
