I believe that 1) siRNA will change medicine, with new treatments for tens of diseases, 2) tens of millions of people will take an siRNA drug in the 2030s, with some chance of >100M people, and 3) I will have taken at least one siRNA drug within a decade.
I have never worked on siRNA, and I also don't think of myself as a hypester. So, why the confidence? There's the technical answer, then the structural answer.
The technical answer is that siRNA has several attractive properties as a drug modality, and enough of the chemistry problems have been solved that I'm confident more drug approvals are on the way (though there are many important unsolved problems left, e.g. in delivering siRNA to organs other than the liver). The four most attractive properties are that with siRNA you can reduce production of previously undruggable proteins by going after the RNA that codes for them; they’re “programmable” to a gene/protein you’re going after; siRNA can last long, with slow release inside cells; and siRNA drugs have the potential to be relatively cheaply made and self-administered.
The structural answer, I believe, is biotechnology’s combination of long timelines with particularly un-juicy, hard-to-remember concepts. If something takes 20 years, you can often spot it 10 years in -- but when it’s an acronym and involves chemical conjugation steps, it’s hard to remember to care. Many important ideas in biology are messy and technical and, unless you've caught the bug (intellectual or literal), boring. That means there are many important secrets lying in plain sight, as per
@nayafia's last book.
While disagreements and unknowns remain, it is not particularly controversial among scientists that siRNA holds a lot of promise (alongside some realised promise already!) -- and, yet, most people who will benefit from siRNA drugs in the 2030s have never heard of it.
(PS: given my job involves stewarding charitable dollars related to science, I don’t invest in individual pharma/biotech stocks personally; this post isn’t about the financial prospects of particular companies.)