My full conversation with @based16z
0:19 the Hyperliquid call
5:01 almost losing his $HYPE airdrop
8:27 life after life changing money
10:12 dating a billionaire's daughter
14:37 from online poker to Crypto
16:40 two trades made his year
20:56 the Snapchat trade
27:43 Sydney Sweeney $AEO trade
31:14 posters move markets
41:42 loot and rob
44:23 advice for a 20 year old
47:23 math lore
51:49 why he has no social media
RT @modmax0: GoodAlex says Google's search monopoly is dead and explains how they lost it to 15 AI agents
“Google used to be a monopoly. They had basically complete market share on search.
Now you have 15 different agent platforms, whether it's Muse, Rockbot, Google's own agnostic search platform, or ChatGPT. ChatGPT is a billion-user product that has search enabled in it, and everyone's doing it.
So you're going from a one-player market to a four- or five-player market in terms of user interface for search. That's causing a decelerating ability to charge, which is very bearish.”
RT @LH: No, it definitely won't. I personally spent several years building SHA-256 as a Boolean circuit and then using all the most sophisticated techniques known to math and cryptography to try to invert that function (to execute a preimage attack). I know the math of SHA-256 more deeply than most people on this planet. It's exceptionally well-defined as a trapdoor function, and inverting it is most certainly NP complete.
I also spent over 30 years trying to prove that P = NP, and threw my entire 30 years of knowledge of this problem at frontier LLMs to try to crack it. What they ended up doing was to thoroughly and convincingly refute every single line of reasoning and "clever" trick I came up with over those decades, which has now left me believing for the first time that actually P≠NP.
Today, we are announcing an agreement to acquire ADT.
Home security has the qualities we look for in the businesses we own: an essential service built on specialist expertise and earned trust.
We see an opportunity to build on that foundation for decades, investing in its people and technology to deliver the best outcomes for customers.
Our ambition is to help ADT define the next era of trusted home security.
Today, we are announcing an agreement to acquire ADT.
Home security has the qualities we look for in the businesses we own: an essential service built on specialist expertise and earned trust.
We see an opportunity to build on that foundation for decades, investing in its people and technology to deliver the best outcomes for customers.
Our ambition is to help ADT define the next era of trusted home security.
RT @LeviGMI: goodalexander explains why people are second guessing the AI trade
"Right now if you look at the overall state of the inference market like, Claude Code or vibe coding, those are starting to clump very negatively quarter over quarter. I think this is happening because vibe coding was hot and now it's not hot. People didn't get the ROI. They thought they we're going to make an app that made money but they just didn't"
"I also think a lot of these AI driven narratives from these publicly traded companies are not paying off. Google just imploded, their advertising business is decelerating. Fortinet said AI was gonna cause an acceleration in cybersecurity and it didn't. ServiceNow just dropped a ton of FDEs"
"So, you have three different segments, advertising showing a deceleration, Enterprise/SAAS showing a deceleration and cyber security that was supposed to be a massive acceleration, showing a deceleration"
RT @mostluckiestmax: Goodalexander explains why Google stock dumped due to lower monetization on AI search and growing competition
“The answer is because monetization on artificial intelligence based search is lower than traditional search”
“Google used to be a monopoly, they had a basic complete market share on search, and now you have 15 different agent platforms, whether it's Grok, whether it's Google's own agentic search platform, whether it's ChatGPT”
“You're going from a one player market to a four player or five player market in terms of user interface for search, and that's causing a decelerating ability to charge, which is very bearish”
RT @CryptoMikli: Threadguy says he might never have started trading stocks if it weren't for Hyperliquid and trade[XYZ]
“In 381 days, they’ve added 100 assets. Without Hyperliquid, I’m not sure we start trading stocks. I’m not sure we hit the HIMS trade. I’m almost positive we never trade oil. I don’t think we trade any of these things.”
“I don’t know how well we start covering stocks, or whether we start covering any of these markets. Are we paying attention to Brazil without Hyperliquid? Maybe, maybe not.”
“I think it’s pretty understated what you’re now capable of doing from one balance on this platform. It’s genuinely incredible.”
“It feels like one of those magical moments in crypto. The first time I used Hyperliquid, I said, ‘Oh, this is magical. This product is magical.’”
Stream sponsors update: Counterparty has concluded year one sponsorships with Phantom and Polymarket. I want to sincerely thank both teams for their incredible support, belief in our vision, and collaboration over the past year.
Phantom took a bet on me when I was streaming out of my living room in 2024 to nobody. I wouldn’t be where I am today without them and I'm eternally grateful to Will, Brandon, and the entire Phantom team.
Polymarket came in a little later to help us scale the show to the next level. Throughout our partnership the stream has grown 10x in live viewership and many multiples in clip impressions and they played a significant role in increasing the quality of our news coverage.
As the stream and Counterparty continue to evolve, we are stepping into an exciting new chapter. Thank you to our community for the ongoing support. Stay tuned, there is so much more to come.
our stream today in 40 minutes
2:41 AI killed analysts reading S-1s
4:29 spent my morning buying MREs
5:46 AI cyber risk is the next COVID
14:18 hackers demanding $50m ransoms
27:31 the only doomsday prep is cash
30:05 running Anthropic aged Dario
31:38 Jason is bearish BTC and long TAO
34:57 everything is AI except Bitcoin
I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.
RT @counterpartytv: our stream today in 40 minutes
2:41 AI killed analysts reading S-1s
4:29 spent my morning buying MREs
5:46 AI cyber risk is the next COVID
14:18 hackers demanding $50m ransoms
27:31 the only doomsday prep is cash
30:05 running Anthropic aged Dario
31:38 Jason is bearish BTC and long TAO
34:57 everything is AI except Bitcoin
I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.
RT @mostluckiestmax: Alexander Goodale explains how cheap AI models like DeepSeek impact corporate margins and drive AI trade fatigue
“The problem is if you start to look at the cost curve of the tokens and the capability of stuff like DeepSeek, DeepSeek is so cheap relative to Opus”
“If the pro model comes out at a similar capability level to the current Opus, then you might have a situation where margins go to 10 to 15% gross margins, then it's a disaster”
“The overall AI trade, I think people are seeing the fatigue, and the reason is just because everyone's at peak investment”
RT @mostluckiestmax: Alexander Goodale explains how TradFi metrics are driving the growth for Hyperliquid ($HYPE)
“If you look at Robinhood for example, monthly average users are decelerating”
“Hyperliquid has turned into this like if you look at the volumes it's like 50% trade XYZ at this point, it sort of varies by day”
“The actual TradFi metrics are the areas driving growth for Hyperliquid”
RT @themashlands: @notthreadguy is good because he doesn't pretend to be the smartest guy in the room. he explores his curiosities in the most normal way possible.
Love that guy. Very relatable.
RT @LeviGMI: Threadguy says if the apocalypse lasts more than a day he’s calling it quits
"Basically any scenario, outside of one day, without power I just opt out. Any scenario that is more difficult than one day no power or one day no internet I would just rather not play"
"This is the crux of the whole bunker thing. For a while I was pro bunker and I had a plan to get a bunker. But now, I'm like, a world in which you are living in the bunker is like.... No, absolutely not"
I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.