based16z✓

RT @mahasr199: I hear the way you get really rich is buying assets already valued at multi trillions of dollars.

Is my hoodie distressed enough? Guy just asked if I was DoorDash in the hotel lobby

Btc in that classic spot where vol still cheap to equities and everyone still thinks unaffected but in the 30% of the time it does go down 5% here everyone will storm the exits

Ok ppl freaking out but not hitting the exits like I would’ve thought tbh

RT @goodalexander: you're seeing a consistent pattern: - Fortinet: people bought bc of AI cybersecurity 'emergency'. turns out 4q decelerating, management price sensitive. stock -25% - ServiceNow: AI SAAS transformation requires forward deployed engineers, turns out 4q is decelerating - stock -25% - Google: spent entire time on TPUs and AI, going FCF negative while its core business (ads) is - you guessed it, decelerating in 4Q. stock -13% this was after youtube was supposed to be killing Netflix (stock -44% over past year) - Robinhood: big agentic push, Monthly active users sequentially decelerating. meanwhile the consumer sector (big ad buyer) is in beast mode. Cheesecake factory 15% comp, Chili's 10%. Norwegian cruise lifts full year guide - passengers up 22% year over year (983k vs 900k expected). which begs the question: if you have RSI, and AI is the future why are you underperforming fried mac n cheese sales or cruise billings in the middle of a war. like what are you actually investing against so company after company is going full tilt into AI, and not really getting a return - just as everyone is 1] locking in to multi year memory contracts (which is part of the price sensitivity fortinet noted) 2] going FCF negative 3] ready to absorb $2-4T of public equity issuance from the labs meanwhile market rejoices when Oracle *cuts back* investment guidance in data centers. Labs on fund raising roadshows are saying the new demand story is that software and hardware are insecure and need to be completely refactored for AI era. Which is just an expense, with no revenue acceleration - which brings to the macro question of 'is productivity going to accelerate' right now sub 2.5% - needs to be above 4% sustainably for debt dynamics to work out. if everyone has to rewrite their software to address cyber threat environment, and banks get hacked constantly (which is apparently the bull case for labs?) - you enter unustainable fiscal situation and decelerating growth which was buttressed by AI infra investment which (per Oracle) is likely to decel even at macro valuation level, China is far ahead of Europe in AI (non controversial). Hang Seng Tech index trades at 10.5x forward PE while French stock market (CAC Index) trades at 14x while Chinese 5 year yield is 1.3% and France is 4.3% so there's a completely believable world in stocks where you get a lot more inference, and a lot more AI, and multiples decline or costs accelerate. which seems like Blasphemy in SF but if you just listen to public companies seems closer to a base case

1k likes ppl are still long all this stuff

So you're telling me the guys who own the only ai hardware that's not a GPU, the datacenters, the model, and the user's entire life data just gapped 11% down? on an EPS miss? And you think the market understands what's happening?

Substack trynna send me notifications? Deleted

RT @willdepue: i think people underrate the degree to which crypto and ais fates are intertwined. we have even not seen the half of it yet radical decentralized capital technology with massive incentive to keep online + uncontrollable agentic forces which directly converts capital to labor

RT @citrini: You can’t deny it’s a funny coincidence

RT @paoloardoino: Tether froze more than 1.567B USDT related to a potential Binance exchange hack. Protecting the industry and our partners is our main priority. Stay safe everyone.

Fact checked by American Patriots

RT @clavicular: If you strip at the Booby Trap and you’ve had your pussy eaten by a Polymarket exec, DM me. Let’s do a stream and gamble on Duel!

RT @whop: This is Nik. He worked as a home service contractor and then realized he had the expertise to manage and scale his own business. Now he runs a lawn care business on Whop doing $45,000 a month in revenue.

Friendtech perp -> druck elon and nyse. What a long strange trip

RT @standuquesne: I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.

RT @grimboldee: My penis is stuck inside of a Gatorade bottle, help me @Gatorade

My friend got iPhone duo

FED VOTES 10-2 TO HOLD BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.75%-4% RANGE *FED: ACCUMULATION OF MORE INFO WILL HELP DETERMINE POLICY *FED: COOK AND BASED16Z DISSENT IN FAVOR OF RATE HIKE