Adam Ozimek✓

Archie Hall @ArchieHall

The same chart, one year on

Daniel Di Martino @DanielDiMartino

NEW: Anthropic's IPO considers U.S. restrictions to legal high-skilled immigration one of its biggest risks to growth in AI, new SEC filing shows: "changes to immigration policies that restrain the flow of professional and technical talent, including but not limited to U.S. immigration policies, may inhibit our ability to recruit and retain highly qualified employees. If we are unable to effectively manage the foregoing risks, our prospects, business, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected." Link:

NBER @nberpubs

Trade allows specialization, but specialization is risky. Workers avoid volatile sectors, often the ones where scale pays off most. Result: US gains from trade fall ~20 percent, from @xiaomaucsd and Natalia Ramondo

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

A reminder for those who forgot recent history that there was a time - not that long ago - when France used to have its own independent view of the world. A time when France's range of acceptable opinion on China was wide enough that its flagship news magazine (not at all known for its communist leanings) hailed Mao as "a giant of history, poet, strategist and prophet" on a 1976 cover 👇 And a time when a centre-right French president - Giscard d’Estaing - mourned him as "a beacon of world thought" ( Today, saying something even remotely positive - or even neutral/nuanced - about China immediately gets you branded as a "CCP propagandist paid by China to bring down the West" 😅 I laugh but it's actually pretty sad when you think about it: not that France should go back to calling Mao - or Xi - a prophet, but, almost by definition, a country whose range of acceptable opinions has so dramatically shrunk in so little time has entered a new dark age, branding every dissonant voice a heretic and every attempt at understanding an act of treason. Which means, somewhat paradoxically, that those who refuse the doxa and still dare to express nuanced opinions, and get called traitors for it, may actually be the most patriotic of the lot, those who believe in France the most.

Ethan Mollick @emollick

Given how out-of-nowhere it seems to many, it is astonishing that there was a small group of people who predicted with remarkable accuracy everything that is happening in AI today a decade ago (@kevinroose shows this in The AGI Chronicles). Many are now very rich and/or powerful

Marcin Piatkowski @mmpiatkowski

Poland 🇵🇱 and South Korea 🇰🇷: two global growth champions with two different growth models and social outcomes. Over three decades both grew fast (4.2% vs 3.7% a year per capita) and reached the same productivity (~$52/hour), but with very different R&D spending: 1.4% vs 5.1% of GDP. On social outcomes, Poland ranks #24 in world happiness vs Korea's #67, with half the suicide rate and a third of the old-age poverty (13% vs 40%) 👇 The shared challenge: among the lowest fertility rates in the world, 1.07 and 0.80. @Noahpinion @KoreaEconInst

Paul Johnson @PJTheEconomist

This puts into perspective. You can see average income growth over a 60 year period. This decade by the far the worst. Even worse than in 2010s which, at the time, were the worst in post war history.

Dan Roberts @danintheory

We are announcing three new discoveries in mathematics, computer science, and physics about harmonic analysis, complexity theory, and quantum field theory.

Justin Watt @justwatt

Zitron’s track record on being wrong about AI feels like when BlackBerry kept saying iPhones would go bust.

Jon Evans @rezendi

Some entertaining highlights from 20 months ago: - "Anthropic has projected (made up) that it will make at least $12 billion in revenue in 2027" - "This company is not worth $60 billion. Anthropic has raised $14.7 billion to create an also-ran Large Language Model company" - "Anthropic, much like OpenAI, has categorically failed to productize its Large Language Model" - "Its CEO is also a sleazy conman who, like Sam Altman, continually promises that his company's AI systems will become powerful and autonomous in a way that they have never shown any possibility of becoming." - "Any investor in Anthropic needs to seriously consider what it is they're investing in. Its products are both unpopular and commoditized, and it lost $5.6 billion last year! Stop dancing around this fact! Stop it!" - "there’s a lot of demand to put AI in stuff and some demand to buy stuff with AI on it by enterprises buying software, but little evidence to suggest significant user adoption or usage, I’d argue because Large Language Models do not lend themselves to features that provide meaningful business returns." - "When a company uses the term “agent,” they are intentionally trying to be deceitful, because the term “agent” means “autonomous AI that does stuff without you touching it.” The problem with this definition is that everybody has used it to refer to “a chatbot that can do some things while connected to a database,” which is otherwise known as a chatbot." - "It isn’t working. The users aren’t there. The revenue isn’t there. The best time to stop this was two years ago, and the next best time is as soon as humanly possible. I have said that generative AI is a group delusion in the past, and I repeat that claim today." - "we are approaching the limit of what the transformer-based architecture can do, if we haven’t already reached it. No amount of beating off about test-time compute and connecting Large Language Models to other Large Language Models is going to create a new use case for this technology" - "generative AI is OpenAI. The consumer adoption of this software has completely failed, and appears to be going nowhere fast. ChatGPT is sustained entirely on deranged, specious hype drummed up by a media industry" ... and my favorite ... - "I will keep writing this stuff until I’m proven wrong."

Elon Musk @elonmusk

@battleangelviv Saving money for the distant future is pointless with the advent of super intelligent abundance

Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch

AI productivity gains are showing up, but only in ~15% of jobs. The three heaviest AI adopters (information, professional services, finance) went from a 2.2% productivity trend to 5.0% since 2022. The rest of the economy: 0.9% to 1.4%.

Patricia Murphy @MurphyAJC

Gov. Brian Kemp is well known to have a copious reading habit. One day he read that Audi was looking to build a U.S. manufacturing plant and the wheels started turning. @FitzTrubey has the amazing ticktock on the many years and dozens, maybe hundreds, of people it took to bring Audi to Georgia.

BBC News (UK) @BBCNews

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