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Bud Davis
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Bud Davis

@JBudDavis

CFB Analytics |🏆 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge

1K Following9.7K Followers7.6K Posts
  1. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    📊Recruit Expected Value v3 ▫️Updated using latest & greatest data & model fit ▫️Assuming high-end 3 Star (Rank #300) is "replacement level": - #1 Recruit is worth ~20X - Top 10 Recruits: 8-15X - Other 5 Star: 5-8X - 4 Stars: 1-5X ▫️Spend NIL accordingly
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  2. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    Explosives aren't just positive plays. We saw Jones do a great job navigating pressure and avoiding sacks. Personally, I prefer him here vs UGA. But at the end of the day, I trust the coaches much more than my data, and will root enthusiastically for whoever is getting the snap
    Bud Davis @JBudDavis
    📊WLOCP Adv Stats Preview ▫️Florida must win the explosive battle ▫️UF OFF: WR+TE vertical passing; RB runs & screens probably can't get you there. Need QB to do a lot w/ their legs ▫️UF DEF: DBs can't be liabilities. S help for WR at expense of Run/TE/RB passing. Blitz?
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  3. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    📊WLOCP Adv Stats Preview ▫️Florida must win the explosive battle ▫️UF OFF: WR+TE vertical passing; RB runs & screens probably can't get you there. Need QB to do a lot w/ their legs ▫️UF DEF: DBs can't be liabilities. S help for WR at expense of Run/TE/RB passing. Blitz?
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    12213.7K
  4. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    Posts @JBudDavis
    The Georgia Defense gap rush numbers are interesting
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  5. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    I love this take. Using data to push back against traditional ideals is really where analytics is most valuable (and fun and interesting!).
    Seth Walder @SethWalder
    Mark me solidly in the "throw [much more] because EPA go brrrr" category. I think it's the No. 1 thing where we lose the forest through the trees in football: NFL run-pass split is sub-optimal and it stares us in the face!
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  6. Seth Walder@SethWalder
    Mark me solidly in the "throw [much more] because EPA go brrrr" category. I think it's the No. 1 thing where we lose the forest through the trees in football: NFL run-pass split is sub-optimal and it stares us in the face!
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  7. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    Posts @JBudDavis
    I'm long on pass rates. I think over 10-20 years we'll slowly see it creep up in neutral game states
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  8. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    Posts @JBudDavis
    Not saying to totally get away from the run game. But in 20 years do you think the pass rate will be lower, the same, or higher? I think it's more likely to go up than down is all.
    200715
  9. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    Pretty cool candid interview here. Generally jives w/ the eye test. Especially the issues w/ playcalling that @SethVarnadore and I used to discuss on @GatorsGameday (one day we'll bring it back) Interesting to hear the meddling issue. Would explain a lot
    David Soderquist @Hightop_Dave
    Johnathan Odom opens up about Billy Napier’s tenure at Florida.
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  10. David Soderquist✓@Hightop_Dave
    Johnathan Odom opens up about Billy Napier’s tenure at Florida.
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  12. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    📊Opp-Adj EPA/Play Wk 1-8 ▫️BYU goes down in the Bounce House ▫️Brent Brennan vs Brent Crude. Basically a Q1 matchup ▫️Gators get Kirby coming off a BYE and a Loss. Have a cocktail ready ▫️Five consecutive victories for Dam Nation ▫️Take the fall! Act hurt! Get indignant!
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  13. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    Posts @JBudDavis
    OFF/DEF Rushing & Passing
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    2092.1K
  15. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    DC is the #6 recruiting metro in the nation One day somebody is going to figure it out
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    bomani @bomani_jones
    always fascinated by these jobs with lots of local talent that can’t wait to go somewhere else.
    32636.6K
  16. bomani✓@bomani_jones
    always fascinated by these jobs with lots of local talent that can’t wait to go somewhere else.
    231738146.1K
  17. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    Alabama Keelon Russell is great. But an 11% Sack Scramble rate with -0.32 EPA/play is going to make it hard for any offense to stay consistent
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  18. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    Florida Blitzed on a ridiculous 63% of Dropbacks vs Texas. And it worked. Success Rate dropped to 38% on Blitzes comapred to 56% on non-blitzes. EPA/play similar 0.03 to -0.34. Sacks & Scrambles at 13% (at -1.68 EPA/play!)
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    42215540.5K
  19. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    📊Adv Stats Playcalling Sheets Wk 1-7 UCLA ▫️Designed run gods (#2 in EPA/play) ▫️RB and Outside Rushing both #1 in FBS ▫️Top 20 in Gap run usage; Top 5 in Gap EPA/play ▫️Low typical "offense helpers" usage: HU No Huddle, Motion, RPO, and PA below avg Comment requests below
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  20. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    Cooper and Black look like Sunday players. Mendoza TBD. Interesting.
    Bud Davis @JBudDavis
    The NFL Draft is going to be a big tell. An old title winning team should have 10-12 guys drafted. Right now Indiana only has 3 projected to go in the first 3 rounds. Comparatively, OSU might have 3 Top 10 picks.
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  21. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    Posts @JBudDavis
    The NFL Draft is going to be a big tell. An old title winning team should have 10-12 guys drafted. Right now Indiana only has 3 projected to go in the first 3 rounds. Comparatively, OSU might have 3 Top 10 picks.
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  22. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    📊Opp-Adj EPA/Play Wk 1-7 ▫️Demon Deacons Domination (poor Cal) ▫️Great showdown between two Big 12 perennial title contenders, Utah & Houston ▫️Nebraska is looking right except for the Win column ▫️I wouldn't wish the last 12 years of FSU football on my worst rival
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  23. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    Posts @JBudDavis
    Offense/Defense Rushing & Passing
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    1161.7K
  25. Bud Davis@JBudDavis
    Kirby Smart should 100% be on the hot seat.
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