Patrick Ruffini✓

Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini

AI summary of EV developments nationally today: Republicans narrowed the gap in the raw early vote almost everywhere in today's update, but the projections barely moved, and the few that did move went toward Democrats. Nearly all the new data is through Oct 27 (E-7), loaded today. Topline •Across the 31 states with a 2024 comparison, about 2.76 million ballots were added. They broke D+4.8, against D+12.4 for everything cast so far. The cumulative margin went from D+13.2 to D+12.4, and the swing from the same point in 2024 shrank from 11.0 to 10.4 points toward Democrats. •Turnout is holding at about 67% of where 2024 was at this point. •In all 44 states, 33.7M ballots are in (D 42.1 / R 30.6 / other 27.4). The projected electorate is D+2.7, against D+2.5 in the turnout model. Biggest raw-margin moves toward Republicans (day over day) •NJ +2.1, KS +1.9, CT +1.7, WA +1.6, IN +1.5, DE +1.5, IA +1.4, WV +1.4, AK +1.4, MD +1.4, NC +1.2, AR +1.1. •The gap with 2024 closed fastest in WA (−6.5 → −5.1), IN (−16.3 → −15.0), AR (−11.0 → −9.7), OR (−6.8 → −5.6), TX (−11.5 → −10.5), NC (−18.4 → −17.4) and GA (−12.3 → −11.4). Where the gap with 2024 grew toward Democrats •PA moved from −14.8 to −15.7 against the same point in 2024. The day's new ballots were still D+27.8. •ME (−11.1 → −11.5) and NH (−4.1 → −4.6) moved the same way. •ND's raw margin fell 7 points (R+64.7 to R+57.7), but the base is only 50K ballots, so treat it as noise. Projections
The Republican gains in the raw vote mostly came out of the "tank," so the projected electorates stayed put or ticked toward Democrats: •TN: R+16.3 → R+16.0, now 2.4 points more Democratic than the turnout model's R+18.4. That's the largest gap with the model of any state. •NC: D+1.9 → D+2.1, 1.9 points more Democratic than the model. The dashboard's note flags NC as a real-movement state: Democratic 2022 non-voters are banking at 2.0 times the Republican rate. •FL: R+10.3 → R+10.1, 1.1 points more Democratic than the model. •LA (−0.3) and AR (−0.2) also moved toward Democrats. •WA (+0.1) and MT (+0.1) were the only ones that moved toward Republicans. •PA is still the main battleground running more Republican than the model (D+4.2 against D+4.6), even though Democrats lead the raw vote by 40 points. Demographics •Black share of ballots dipped today in GA (−0.30), NC (−0.24) and AR (−0.23) as a whiter in-person electorate showed up. It's still well above 2024 at this point: GA +5.7, NC +4.0, AR +2.6, FL +1.4. MD went the other way (+0.78 today). •Hispanic share is running behind 2024 in NV and AZ (−1.9 each), FL (−1.4) and NM (−1.3). It ticked up in AZ today (+0.38). TX is the exception at +2.4 over 2024. House races •The biggest projected moves toward Democrats were in NC-01 (D+4.0 → D+4.3), FL-14 (−0.24), FL-07 (−0.17), NC-11 (−0.16) and TX-34 (−0.13). •No tracked district moved more than 0.1 point toward Republicans. •Running furthest to the Democratic side of the model: NC-01 (−1.7), CA-22 (−1.5), FL-14 (−1.2), FL-07 (−1.1), NC-11 (−1.0), TX-34 (−1.0). •Running to the Republican side of the model: PA-01 and MT-01 (+0.65 each), VA-01 (+0.6).

Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini

DEEP TROUBLE IN THE DEEP SOUTH? One worrying trend for Republicans is a big shift in early voting towards Democrats in the South. In most states, a 10-point EV shift hasn't shifted the projected final electorate. In North Carolina, it's shifted by 2 more points.