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Dave Wasserman
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Dave Wasserman✓

@Redistrict

Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.

1.2K Following611K Followers20.9K Posts
  1. Dave Wasserman✓@Redistrict
    New @CookPolitical: Plenty of GOP districts that were unthinkable targets at the outset of the cycle are now in deep jeopardy (#IA02, #KY06, #TX15 for example). But when you consider their Democratic DNA, maybe it shouldn't come as such a shock.
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  3. Dave Wasserman✓@Redistrict
    Think back to 2006, last midterm w/ an unpopular war/GOP president. Where were the biggest House upsets? Places like IN, IA, KS, MN (Tim Walz!), NH, OH, WI, Upstate NY. That's why I think the Midwest & places w/ lots of secular white voters are especially ripe for surprises.
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  5. Dave Wasserman✓@Redistrict
    My personal hunch: if you're looking for upsets, they're more likely to be in places w/ lots of secular whites & independents (i.e. the Midwest) than in the Deep South. Not totally unrelated: my lunch locale today.
    Download
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  9. Dave Wasserman✓@Redistrict
    Look forward to discussing @CookPolitical’s midterm outlook on @cspanwj at 8am ET. Have a question about a competitive race? Be sure to call in.
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  10. Dave Wasserman✓@Redistrict
    A decent way to think about 2026: many of the places that have swung the most towards Republicans during the Trump era (Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, south TX, north country of NY) are the places we could see some of the biggest pro-Dem swings this year.
    Nathaniel Reed @ReedReports
    👀 NEW Siena poll in NY-21 (Retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's district): Blake Gendebien (D) 46% Anthony Constantino (R) 42% Undecided 8% Sponsored by local news outlets NBC5 (WPTZ), Times-Union & WAMC, conducted by Siena from Sept 30-Oct 6 among 496 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.6%.
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  11. Dave Wasserman✓@Redistrict
    Dave Wasserman
    RT @ReedReports: 👀 NEW Siena poll in NY-21 (Retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's district): Blake Gendebien (D) 46% Anthony Constantino (R) 42% Undecided 8% Sponsored by local news outlets NBC5 (WPTZ), Times-Union & WAMC, conducted by Siena from Sept 30-Oct 6 among 496 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.6%.
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  15. Dave Wasserman✓@Redistrict
    New @CookPolitical: with less than 40 days to go, the most critical voters are the "doubly disenchanted" - the ~17% of Trump disapprovers who aren't (yet) in the Dem column. The critical pain point for them? Energy/gas prices. My full analysis:
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  16. Dave Wasserman✓@Redistrict
    New @CookPolitical: with less than six weeks to go, the fight for the Senate is a true Toss Up, with three races shifting towards Dems: #GASEN: Lean D to Likely D #KSSEN: Likely R to Lean R #SCSEN: Solid R to Likely R Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor:
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  17. Dave Wasserman✓@Redistrict
    Dave Wasserman
    RT @amyewalter: Voters competitive CD’s polled for @CookPolitical see election not just as a referendum on Trump (who’s underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Indies prefer candidate who will “reform entire system” vs serve as a “check on Trump”by 39pts.
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