Predict the exact score between VALENCIA vs REAL MADRID to win $50
Prediction after 7:30pm is excluded
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Posts with #Predictive
#Predictive
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$GOLD GOLD CRASH 50% FROM HERE AS PER MY PREDICTION.491246381.8K
💥5th November, 2026 Cert-In, I4C warn financial firms of AI-driven cyberattacks, unauthorised fund transfers 1st November, 2026 #PredictionDr. Shah @ankitatIIMA💥The mid-term elections will be over in a few days. It is time to prepare for the Dedollarisation crisis event any time from there till November, 2027. 1. Change your net banking password. 2. Switch off all the online services from the net banking. You can put on any specific one when needed. 3. Keep a Physical copy of all your investments and the latest bank account statements.2121898636K- 💥The mid-term elections will be over in a few days. It is time to prepare for the Dedollarisation crisis event any time from there till November, 2027. 1. Change your net banking password. 2. Switch off all the online services from the net banking. You can put on any specific one when needed. 3. Keep a Physical copy of all your investments and the latest bank account statements.
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I predicted the 2024 election with 100% accuracy Here is my prediction for how the Senate races will turn out tomorrow
6558849.9K1.6M- 💥7th November, 2026 US Believes Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Had Romantic Relationship With Chinese 'Spy': Report #NVIDIA From ~$250 to $180 in weeks. 13th July, 2024 #PredictionDr. Shah @ankitatIIMA💥Very few will understand - November, 2001 Communication on the common asylum policy, introducing an open co-ordination method among the EU nations. 30th November, 2001 Nvidia Replaces Enron On S&P 500 from today 30th November, 2001 Goldman Sachs comes up with the Acronym BRICs1411157423.6K
- 💥Very few will understand - November, 2001 Communication on the common asylum policy, introducing an open co-ordination method among the EU nations. 30th November, 2001 Nvidia Replaces Enron On S&P 500 from today 30th November, 2001 Goldman Sachs comes up with the Acronym BRICs
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Dopamine does not spike highest for guaranteed rewards. It spikes highest at reward prediction error. If you want to have fun in life, you should stop avoiding risk and uncertainty.3451.4K13.6K1.1M- 💥5th November, 2026 Meta joins Microsoft and Google in offering voluntary exits to employees 16th June, 2024 #PredictionDr. Shah @ankitatIIMA💥Let's see how many years the FAANG will take to Defang. The ponzi scheme of buying back to shore up valuations by the money sponsored from the endless printing machine.718493028.3K
OK, wrote about the models vs. prediction markets debate. Actually, the real stolen valor is from NYT/Siena. But prediction markets converged toward FLIPR/model prices, not the other way around, and the models got to the right answer sooner and more confidently.
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Prediction: "In silico cures" for the top 5,000 diseases, as judged by virtual cells, within the next 2-3 years.Moonshots @moonshots_podAlex predicts AI will propose drug interventions for the top 5,000 diseases within three years. The question is whether the FDA keeps up.437673925.2K
- 💥2nd November, 2026 Canadian home prices have fallen 20.5% nationally from their early-2022 peak, close to the 26% decline the US saw during the 2008 housing crash. 9th November, 2024 #PredictionDr. Shah @ankitatIIMA💥15th August, 2026 US - Homebuyers fall to the lowest level in history. Sellers now outnumber buyers by nearly half a million in America. Australia - 16th August, 2026 Air is coming out of the housing bubble. Is now the time for first home buyers? A major bank has forecast property prices could plunge by up to 15 per cent over this year and next as the current market downturn intensifies across Australia’s largest capital cities. UK - 8th August, 2026 ‘The market is dead’: why aren’t flats in England selling? Figures show most leasehold flats in England do not find a buyer within six months, despite slashed prices Canada - 5th August, 2026 Ongoing multi-year correction (national prices already down ~20% from peak in some measures) There are signs of hope in Canada's housing market. But is it time to use the 'b-word'? 9th November, 2024 #Prediction182131.1K62.6K
- 💥15th August, 2026 US - Homebuyers fall to the lowest level in history. Sellers now outnumber buyers by nearly half a million in America. Australia - 16th August, 2026 Air is coming out of the housing bubble. Is now the time for first home buyers? A major bank has forecast property prices could plunge by up to 15 per cent over this year and next as the current market downturn intensifies across Australia’s largest capital cities. UK - 8th August, 2026 ‘The market is dead’: why aren’t flats in England selling? Figures show most leasehold flats in England do not find a buyer within six months, despite slashed prices Canada - 5th August, 2026 Ongoing multi-year correction (national prices already down ~20% from peak in some measures) There are signs of hope in Canada's housing market. But is it time to use the 'b-word'? 9th November, 2024 #Prediction333101.4K95.9K
- 💥2nd November, 2026 Brazil's Largest Exchange Mercado Bitcoin Halts Withdrawals After $40 Million Hack 2nd November, 2026 Multiple power outages in the Foggy Bottom area of downtown Washington DC affecting 1176 customers. 2nd November, 2026 Potential cyberattacks hit Swedish, Belgian supermarkets, fridge and freezer temperatures spiked overnight. 1st November, 2026 #PredictionDr. Shah @ankitatIIMA💥The mid-term elections will be over in a few days. It is time to prepare for the Dedollarisation crisis event any time from there till November, 2027. 1. Change your net banking password. 2. Switch off all the online services from the net banking. You can put on any specific one when needed. 3. Keep a Physical copy of all your investments and the latest bank account statements.262261K40.1K
A new RNA foundation model, published in Nature. Researchers introduce structRFM, an open, structure-guided RNA foundation model trained on 21 million RNA sequence–structure pairs. Unlike conventional RNA language models that primarily learn from sequences, structRFM incorporates base-pairing information directly into pre-training, enabling joint learning of RNA sequence and structure. Key highlights: • Structure-guided pre-training: A new masked language modeling strategy (SGMLM) captures RNA base-pairing relationships. • RNA structure prediction: Achieves state-of-the-art performance on secondary structure benchmarks. • 3D RNA folding: Its Zfold adaptation delivers competitive performance with AlphaFold 3 across established RNA structure benchmarks. • Broad generalization: Supports RNA structure prediction, splice-site prediction, IRES identification, and ncRNA classification. The complete dataset, model weights, and source code are openly available. From sequence-only learning to structure-aware foundation models, RNA AI is taking another step forward. Nature paper: #RNA #AIforBiology #FoundationModels #Nature
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After a year of trading, I'm finally in the prediction market millionaire club -- and then some. In the midterm elections I printed over $370,000, for a +50% gain on my portfolio. I started with $20K and zero trading experience. Thanks to everyone who's joined me on this weird journey. ❤️🪿
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Yet another correct prediction by AI 2027. In the scenario, speedup from AI is 2x around Dec 2026. I don't like that progress is roughly going as fast as AI 2027 predicted, given that in the scenario, ASI happens in 2027. (my actual median for ASI is 2028/2029)
METR @METR_Evals1. Benchmarks provide one piece of evidence for acceleration. Since Oct 2025, AECI scores for Anthropic’s models have grown at 1.9x [95%: 1.5–2.8] the earlier rate. Analysis choices affect this estimate, and it remains unclear how benchmark scores map to real-world capabilities.266478976.3K
METR@METR_Evals@METR_Evals1. Benchmarks provide one piece of evidence for acceleration. Since Oct 2025, AECI scores for Anthropic’s models have grown at 1.9x [95%: 1.5–2.8] the earlier rate. Analysis choices affect this estimate, and it remains unclear how benchmark scores map to real-world capabilities.
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Yen-Chen Lin@yen_chen_linSuch a cool way to teach ML in the age of AI. - Assignments: run experiments, worth 0% of your grade, just to train intuitions. - Quizzes: predict new experiment outcomes. > Isnt it unfair to predict arbitrary experiments? Why do i care if the loss is 3.1234… > We will pick outcome metrics that are relevant ... But also, the real world is unfair: your experiments depend on your prediction
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Prediction market prices are set, at the margin, by giant proprietary trading firms in NYC and Chicago who are filtering data from pollsters and professional forecasters (Nate Silver etc) and incorporating it in real time — trying to frame it as “the little guy who knows his home town better than any pollster” is so fucking disingenuous.Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands. I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ‘These people’ don’t really know much.” Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites. Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%. The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels. Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people. Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families. Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full. And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world. For generations, election night meant turning on the TV and waiting for a handful of people to tell you what happened. Prediction markets change that. You don't need a title, a large following, or an editor to publish you. All you need is a perspective and the conviction to back it. That changes who holds power over information. Anyone can see the market. Anyone can contribute to it. Anyone can question it. No title gives you the final word. No gatekeepers can filter your view. Sometimes the signal can be wrong. But anyone can challenge the consensus and improve it. And when people consolidate their knowledge together, something remarkable happens: millions of individual perspectives become a signal that we all can learn from. Over the last few months, the people showed up on Kalshi to tell the world what they were going to do. Last night, the megaphone was passed to them.40571.2K58K
Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands. I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ‘These people’ don’t really know much.” Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites. Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%. The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels. Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people. Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families. Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full. And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world. For generations, election night meant turning on the TV and waiting for a handful of people to tell you what happened. Prediction markets change that. You don't need a title, a large following, or an editor to publish you. All you need is a perspective and the conviction to back it. That changes who holds power over information. Anyone can see the market. Anyone can contribute to it. Anyone can question it. No title gives you the final word. No gatekeepers can filter your view. Sometimes the signal can be wrong. But anyone can challenge the consensus and improve it. And when people consolidate their knowledge together, something remarkable happens: millions of individual perspectives become a signal that we all can learn from. Over the last few months, the people showed up on Kalshi to tell the world what they were going to do. Last night, the megaphone was passed to them.
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I think this is one of the coolest #interactive #Python @matplotlib dashboards that I've ever made! Tune the #predictive #MachineLearning decision tree hyperparameter & visualize: 1. the model & data 2. train & test cross validation with conditional distributions 3. error vs. model complexity, overfitting On #GitHub @ ∀. #DataScience #MachineLearning #DataAnalytics6137852152K- Welp, the remaining daylight between FLIPR and prediction markets is pretty much gone.
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Prediction Announcement: Florida Gov and Senate Another state I have been endlessly tracking the early vote. Democrats have done substantial better in the early vote than prior years, but the overall shift has been one that I believe has created a sort of blue mirage for them. I am expecting a good Election Day margin and volume for Rs, giving Donalds the room he needs to win and Moody the padding she needs to get into double digits. Here is the good news for us all: Florida provides tracking votes by registration all tomorrow, so we will get live updates every 10 minutes starting when polls open. This prediction is based on a good Republican turnout that gets them to an R+9-10% advantage. If that does not happen tomorrow, you can shift these predictions down (shift up if Rs do better). Overall, Florida has not disappointed Republicans the last few cycles and I do not see that happening this year either.
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