As @tracyalloway writes in today's Odd Lots newsletter... The logical endpoint is my agent battles some company’s algorithm until they reach the same equilibrium we would reached before AI, except we both spent a lot on tokens and the whole thing is value destroying.
My recent experiences with the DMV, TSA, and voting have all been great. High performing public services. Unfortunately, the Post Office is still the Post Office.
The College-in-3 trend is accelerating. Early movers experimenting with a 3 year bachelor’s degree were less selective schools like Merrimack or Weber State. Then states like OH, OK, and KS told their flagship universities to pilot the 90 credit degree. Now even NYU is doing it.
"The 4-year bachelor’s degree is a cornerstone of American society. It will continue to be the mainstay of what NYU offers across an array of disciplines. Reducing credits won’t always be practical. But four years of college is not an inviolable standard."
I left You Can See Everything with a nagging suspicion that I saw the clips and commentary that made the most entertaining movie rather than the most accurate portrayal of what the narrators saw/thought.
Apologies for the ‘it was better in the past’ story but..
From the 1880s through the 1910s, some packs of cigarettes included a baseball card as an add-on. In 1933, Goudey recognized the appeal of baseball cards to kids and began selling packs containing one piece of gum and one card. Gradually, cards became the focus and the gum became secondary. Given the appeal to kids and that it did have a stick of gum, general retailers sold baseball cards in the candy aisle.
By the late 1940s, manufacturers were selling packs containing multiple cards but still just one piece of gum. Topps eventually established a virtual monopoly on baseball cards sold alone or with gum, which lasted until 1981. After a long antitrust battle, two competitors found a way around Topps' exclusive contracts by including a sticker or puzzle piece rather than gum.
By 1992, MLB decided that no insert was necessary. The stickers and puzzles were superfluous, while the gum could actually damage the cards. Manufacturers abandoned these extras. Still, sports cards continued to be sold in candy aisles until roughly the turn of the century when stores increasingly gave them their own section.
The first box of baseball cards I bought, at age 13, was 1987 Topps for $12. Last week, for old times sake, I bought a vintage box of the same on eBay for $70.
The box was delivered while I was out of town but I couldn’t find it when I got home. Last night, when I went to get a piece of chocolate, I discovered the box in the candy drawer. I was confused. Turns out my housekeeper had unpacked it but didn't know what the box was, at least until she noticed the words “bubble gum cards” prominently displayed on the box. Without realizing it, she'd put the box exactly where it would have belonged a generation ago: with the candy.
It reminded me of a simpler time when kids opened packs to complete a set rather than chase autographs and pieces of game-worn jerseys. When $12 bought 36 packs instead of one. When the thrill was finding your favorite player or the star rookie, not calculating what a card might be worth. When there weren’t professional grading services. And when a stick of gum was still part of the experience.
French protestors want higher public spending, wages, subsidies and pensions. Meanwhile France has gov’t spending of 57% of GDP (among highest of Western countries), deficits of 5% of GDP, 10 year bond rate >5%, and a currency they don’t control. I don’t understand how this ends.
Alpha School is following the Gartman Hype Cycle. Expectations peaked early 2026. Today, there is increasing skepticism. The important question is not where they are today but where they will be in a few years when they reach the Plateau of Productivity.
I've been critical of @Alphaschool in the past for making bold claims but not offering transparency or allowing third-party evaluation. That opens them up to the criticism they're receiving now, like in today's NYT (some of which was unfair). I also think it's unclear how much internal motivation a student needs to succeed there.
That said, I greatly applaud them and @jliemandt for experimenting with a radically new model. The current K-12 instructional model doesn't work very well and may be even worse in the future preparing kids for a world with AI.
While the promise of ed tech has been a huge disappointment for 20+ years, that doesn't mean it always will be. AI probably isn't good enough to overcome the challenge of engagement with even the median student today. That very well might change in a few years.
If so, we need education entrepreneurs building the products, tools, and school models to translate that technology into better student outcomes. Alpha is an important org in that effort. It's important we don't judge that effort prematurely, but they also need to be careful of the claims they make, particularly as they inch into public education.
Alpha's outcomes might be short of what they claim but also better than the vast majority of other schools. There are real questions of selection effects and what it means to learn twice as fast (not what it may seem), as @KelseyTuoc has detailed.
Next-gen nuclear that could provide affordable, reliable, low-carbon, baseload power almost anywhere would be holy grail of the energy system. Continued public investment in developing the tech is 100% justified. That said, here is the reality of where the SMR industry is today.
The 37 members of Congress who voted against the ROAD to Housing Act don't get to run on an affordability agenda in midterms because that's obviously not your priority.
Likewise, members running on affordability don’t get to vote against energy permitting reform. You just don't.
A high school diploma should certify that a student has acquired the core knowledge and soft skills needed for employment, further education, or military service. But graduation standards in many states have been weakened such that a diploma no longer reliably signals anything.
"Shielding students from high standards signals to students that you don’t have to do the work to still graduate. That message is particularly dangerous: Why try if it isn’t going to matter? The result: more students unprepared for what comes next."
Take “credit-recovery” programs, which offer a way for students who are failing a course to catch up without having to repeat a whole semester. If done well, these programs make sense. Too often, however, absentee students “recover” by taking a low-effort, high-pass online program. In effect, all they learn is that adults will let them off the hook, so they can stay on track to graduate.
Whether they have a diploma or not, young people who cannot understand written directions or perform basic math are entering the workforce without the skills they will need. The same is true of soft skills. Showing up consistently, meeting deadlines and accepting responsibility for failure: These are requirements of adulthood. And there are no credit recovery programs for those who lack them.
Shielding students from high standards is not compassionate; it simply delays the consequences. It also signals to students that you don’t have to do the work to still graduate. That message is particularly dangerous: Why try if it isn’t going to matter? The result: more students unprepared for what comes next.
I wrote an op-ed.
States are boosting high school graduation rates by lowering the standards required to earn a diploma, with serious unintended consequences. Credentials only have value if they signify real knowledge and skills.
530A accounts ("Trump Accounts") are a great solution for many ultra-wealthy Americans who are philanthropically inclined, do not want a foundation staff, do want to give while living, and haven't been inspired by existing nonprofits. It's an American version of “GiveDirectly."
