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Lenny Bronner
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Lenny Bronner

@lennybronner

elections + data Currently https://t.co/oOO33Lfqig Previously @washingtonpost and @sidewireinc Originally 🇦🇹

2K Following8.6K Followers1.9K Posts
  1. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Georgia already posted who voted in 2026. In heavily Trump precincts, 1 in 3 of 2024’s voters stayed home, while in precincts Harris won overwhelmingly it was 1 in 4. 420K people who skipped 2024 showed up, with a 2:1 ratio in more Democratic areas.
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    Lenny Bronner @lennybronner
    Using precinct results from 11 states, we estimate ~75% of Democrats’ net gain came from the turnout gap and ~20% from vote switching. Exit polls imply 35% nationally, but turnout still leads. 8 in 9 Trump voters who didn’t vote GOP stayed home.
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  2. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Posts @lennybronner
    Using precinct results from 11 states, we estimate ~75% of Democrats’ net gain came from the turnout gap and ~20% from vote switching. Exit polls imply 35% nationally, but turnout still leads. 8 in 9 Trump voters who didn’t vote GOP stayed home.
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    1812238987.1K
  3. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Posts @lennybronner
    This is more evidence that most of Democrats’ gains came from who showed up rather than from people switching sides. But it’s not just Trump voters staying home. New Democratic-leaning voters are an important part of the story.
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  4. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Posts @lennybronner
    Switchers still matter, though. The data doesn’t show how anyone voted, but combined with precinct results it suggests roughly 40% of Democrats’ gain in Georgia came from switchers (very similar to my previous estimate). The exact number depends on how Democratic new voters were.
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  5. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    GOP politicians seem to be coalescing around explaining the midterm outcome as a result of Trump voters switching their vote to Democrats -- but so far the available data points at turnout as the main driver.
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  6. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Posts @lennybronner
    As per @Thorongil16's suggestion, I added TX (note: it's only 12 counties that cover 63% of the vote) and it bucks the trend! So far, Texas is the only state where our model indicates that persuasion explains more of Democrats net gain than turnout does!
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  7. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Posts @lennybronner
    @Thorongil16 This seems to be mostly (but not only) driven by the Hispanic parts of the state (e.g. 81% persuasion in Hidalgo). Even in the whiter parts of the state, Texas looks more like Georgia in terms of persuasion than any other state.
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  8. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    gonna tell my kids this was the blue wall
    Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome
    Lmao
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  10. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Hindsight is 20/20, but recent governor elections (I know partisanship plays differently in those) could have been an indication that Mississippi was more in play than some election analysts (myself included) realized
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    Gabe Fleisher @WakeUp2Politics
    Interesting Mississippi analysis from one Charles Schumer
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  11. Gabe Fleisher✓@WakeUp2Politics
    Interesting Mississippi analysis from one Charles Schumer
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  12. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Posts @lennybronner
    Also kind of fun. Cindy Hyde-Smith won by 10 in a D+3 environment. This year will end up being around D+13 -- a 10 point swing.
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  13. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Lenny Bronner
    RT @jakemarks42: South Carolina and Indiana Republicans drew 7-0 and 9-0 maps that never passed. In 2026, both would have backfired SC: 4R-3D on the House vote vs 5R-2D on the current map IN: Bayh (D) carried all 9 proposed districts for SoS. Dems won 3 seats on the current map @DecisionDeskHQ
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  14. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Lenny Bronner
    RT @thomasjwood: Even if you're familiar with the nationalization of politics and @dhopkins1776's brilliant book, the the uniformity of the senate shift in '26 is striking
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  15. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Lenny Bronner
    RT @JeremiahDJohns: Wave so blue that Democrats who dropped out and don't even want to be there are still getting elected
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  17. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Robeson county continues to be a contender for most interesting county in America. Whatley won it over Cooper, but Earls over Stevens
    Ryan Brune @BruneElections
    Anita Earls won Robeson county.
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  18. Ryan Brune@BruneElections
    Anita Earls won Robeson county.
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  19. Lenny Bronner@lennybronner
    Really interesting view into what could have happened in SC. In nearly all other states that GOP districted, it ended up backfiring on them (FL is the only state where the swing wasn't quite strong enough)
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    Josh Metcalf @josh_metcalf
    The SC GOP showed a surprising amount of political acumen in nixing last year's proposed redistricting plan. Had they gone through with their attempted 7-0 lockout map, it easily could have backfired and yielded a 6-1 split for Dems. Makes one wonder if southern Rs will think twice about dismantling the remaining VRA districts in GA, SC, AL, etc...
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  20. Josh Metcalf✓@josh_metcalf
    The SC GOP showed a surprising amount of political acumen in nixing last year's proposed redistricting plan. Had they gone through with their attempted 7-0 lockout map, it easily could have backfired and yielded a 6-1 split for Dems. Makes one wonder if southern Rs will think twice about dismantling the remaining VRA districts in GA, SC, AL, etc...
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