Nick Gerli Gateway

Florida’s migration reversal is getting ugly. Tampa, Orlando, and Miami all lost population in Q2 2026. In fact - Orlando and Miami lost more people than New York. Not only has Florida's pandemic migration surge dropped off, locals are leaving and some of the state's biggest

1) Comparisons like this show just how much the market has changed from pre-pandemic and initial pandemic periods. Back then, Nashville was the undisputed boomtown. And Detroit was the undisputed market that everyone liked to rag on for having too many vacancies.

Terrible economic setup for Trump 3 weeks from Midterms. - Inflation: sticky - Oil & diesel: surging - Interest rates: multi-decade highs - Consumer sentiment: Terrible - Iran war: worsening No wonder he's so bullish on AI. It's the only thing driving the economy...

TURKEY WEIGHS AIR DEFENSE SUPPORT FOR SAUDI ARABIA Turkey is assessing air defense assistance to Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks. Ankara stressed the Mecca Pact is defensive, ruling out deploying troops for offensive operations.

A historic disconnect is taking place in the U.S. economy. Corporate earnings are exploding. While job growth is non-existent. S&P 500 earnings surged 32% YoY in Q2 2026. Yet BLS payroll jobs grew only 0.3%.

1) Many in housing do not understand the scale for demand destruction that has occurred the last five years. Back in January 2021, at the peak pandemic frenzy, the MBA's mortgage purchase index hit 348. It's now at 145.

Andrew Tate just moved $1.87 MILLION worth of $HYPE to Binance. Tate deposited 20,950 HYPE, bought at around $4.48 nearly two years ago. The position has generated a reported $7.24M profit, a +1,317% return. He still holds 63,550 HYPE worth roughly $5.62M, as per lookonchain.

U.S. Sen. Gary Peters will lead the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future after completing his Senate term. He’ll serve alongside Republican strategist Mike Murphy, advancing bipartisan dialogue and student civic engagement.

1) This inversion is historic. Since 1999, the typical home bulider premium to new homes is +$39,000. But today it's -$35,000. That's a $74,000 swing in price disparity.

A historic disconnect is taking place in the U.S. Housing Market. The cost to buy a house is now $2,886/month, incl mtg, tax, insurance. While the cost to rent is $1,950/month. The $936 buyer premium is one of the highest on record.

1) This disconnect between buying and renting helps explain why home sales remained mired in the worst recession since 2008. Existing sales just fell below 4.0 million annualized, and adjusting for population, are at the lowest level in 40+ years.

U.S. homebuyer demand has fallen so far that pending sales are now worse than 2008. In August 2026, the NAR pending sale index registered at 71.2. Lower than during any period of the 2008-2011 crash.

1) Pending sales today turn into closed sales in the next 1-2 months, indicating the housing market is going to be very weak heading into the fall. There's many sellers who have been waiting to cut prices, thinking a recovery is going to take place.

Major housing deflation is taking place in the homebuilding sector. Lennar, the 2nd largest builder in America, has now cut net prices 30% from the pandemic peak. Dropping from $511,000 in 2022 to $359,000 in Q3 2026.

1) Lennar is leading the charge on reducing prices, cutting more than any other large builder. Overall, the home building sector has cut gross prices nearly 15% from the peak in 2022 through 2026. While the re-sale market continues to experience rising prices.

U.S. Mortgage Applications just fell back to the lowest level since 1995. And are now down 50% from the pandemic peak. Demand to buy with a mortgage today is shockingly at the same level as 31 years ago, even though U.S. population is 30% higher.

1) Today, the typical monthly mortgage payment (including taxes and insurance) is around $2,800/month, or $34,000/year. The typical U.S. household median income is $89,000/year. Meaning the typical household needs to spend 38% of their gross pre-tax income on montly mortgage cost

America is getting dangerously close to having more seniors than children. In 2005, there were 2.1 Americans under 18 for every person over 65. Today, there are only 1.2. And by 2030, the ratio will dip below 1.0, indicating the U.S. will be in organic population decline.

The U.S. is now officially in a K-shaped housing market. Sales volumes are still rising at the $1M+ luxury price point. (+3.9% YoY) But collapsing everywhere else. This shift in mix towards higher end buyers is causing something interesting to happen.

1) This is a phenomenom I've noticed anecdotally in my travels across the U.S. Housing Market. I keep finding houses in lower to middle income neighborhoods in Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Nevada where values are plummeting. Down 20-40% in some cases.

The 'housing shortage' is history. U.S. Months of supply hit 4.88 in August 2026, the highest level since 2015. That's an 11-year high. While these levels are still well below the 2008 crash, they are rising each year.