iain✓
@ohiain
Personal Journal † Aggressive Momentum Swing Trader | Focused on Tension & Release | "keep it stupid simple" - NFA.
186 Following47.1K Followers13.6K Posts
- I firmly believe some traders would rather lose money being early than make $$ being patient. Are you seeing what I'm seein'? software, cybersecurity, semis, earnings, FOMC... we've got a ridiculous amount of potential market-moving catalysts right in front of us, and y'all are still trying to nail the exact bottom? I've spent the last 3 weeks warning about a risk-off environment + the possibility of a dead cat bounce, and I genuinely don't understand the obsession with being first. Why put your hard earned capital at risk guessing where the low is when you can simply wait (shocking, right?) for the first higher low, some healthy leadership + actual confirmation that buyers are stepping back in? I swear 90% of traders would rather catch the bottom tick than wait for the market to prove them right. I've taken 2 tiny losses since October 13th and have been sitting on my bum ever since. Could I miss the first 5% off the lows? Absolutely.... but couldn't care less. I've lost way more $$ trying to predict bottoms than I ever have waiting for more confirmation. and if you're wondering why I've been so hands-off, this entire account is a public journal. Go back and read the last 3 weeks of posts. I'm showing you exactly how I'm navigating this environment while new information is unfolding, not explaining it after the fact. I also share my Morning Commentary + Focus List with subscribers every morning for less than a cup of coffee a month. Just a closer look at how I'm thinking through the market in real time, good or bad. I'd love to hold your hand and walk n' talk. okay... I'm actually going to bed now, goodnight family!
iain @ohiainBeen cash heavy the last 2 weeks, taken exactly 2 trades since October 13th (both tiny Ls), and have been sitting on my bum ever since. Still tracking the market daily, but outside of a few mean reversion opportunities into declining MAs + relative strength in software names like $PLTR, $RBRK, etc... I'm genuinely not seeing much that's actionable for my system just yet. Am I doing this right?21363.5K - Been cash heavy the last 2 weeks, taken exactly 2 trades since October 13th (both tiny Ls), and have been sitting on my bum ever since. Still tracking the market daily, but outside of a few mean reversion opportunities into declining MAs + relative strength in software names like $PLTR, $RBRK, etc... I'm genuinely not seeing much that's actionable for my system just yet. Am I doing this right?22412820.3K
- Can't wait to wake up tomorrow and say I told you so. Y'all have been hammering me for sitting 100% cash, but today is exactly why I've been preaching patience the last few weeks… this is not the environment to be pressing risk, and sometimes the best trade is no trade at all. My only hope is that my commentary benefits you in some way, shape, or form. See y'all at the open tomorrow, goodnight & love y'all.iain @ohiainA low volume push into declining moving averages…I've seen this movie a time or two, and let's just say the ending isn't always pretty. They aren't going to make it that easy for us, but apparently 1/2 of #FinTwit already has their ATH hats back on.100766.4K
- You don't need 2 hours of scanning every morning to find the best opportunities. Give me 20 minutes, and here's where I'd start... 1) Market check: Look at $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM, and $VIX. ...is the market in an uptrend (higher highs/higher lows, above rising moving averages)? ...os $QQQ leading $SPY (growth risk on) or lagging? ...is $IWM participating or lagging (broad participation vs mega cap only)? ... $VIX elevated and rising (caution) or subdued? -- 2) Sector ranking: Rank the 11 Select Sector SPDRs ($XLK, $XLV, $XLF, $XLY, $XLC, $XLI, $XLP, $XLE, $XLU, $XLRE, $XLB) by relative strength versus $SPY. Focus on the top 3-4 and bottom 2-3. Note any sudden changes in ranking... these often signal rotation. -- 3) Theme scan: Within the leading sectors, check the relevant themes. this is just for an example, but... Technology leading... look at $SMH, $SOXX, $AIQ & $BAI, $CIBR, $DRAM, $IGV, $BOTZ. Industrials leading... check $ITA & $SHLD, $PAVE, $GRID. Energy or Utilities leading → check $NLR + $URA and related power/infrastructure names. Only then look for individual setups inside the strongest themes, and if the market or sector is weak, reduce size or stay in cash. Simple & repeatable.134943419.1K
- A huge focus for me heading into 2026 was getting better at buying pullbacks in leading names in leading groups as they turned back up off the moving averages, and I can confidently say it's been one of the most rewarding improvements I've made to my trading this year.iain @ohiainA main focus for me heading into 2026 is to put even more emphasis on buying pullbacks into the 9/21 EMAs on leaders in leading sectors/themes. I’ve been backtesting and refining this for the past couple of months, and the more data I review, the more obvious it becomes... the highest quality momentum runs are rarely caught by chasing the obvious breakout. They’re caught by getting positioned when the stock turns back up out of a pullback, with structure underneath you and a clear line in the sand. The reason pullback buys fit my style is simple: risk is tighter and more logical. When a leader pulls back into the 9/21 EMAs, I am buying a defined area where demand has historically shown up, where weak hands often get shaken, and where I can lean against a pivot with precision in execution. If it holds, I'm early in the next leg. If it fails, I'm wrong quickly. ... and that’s the entire game. It’s consistently finding entries where I can define asymmetric risk and let momentum do the dirty work. A great example from the past couple of weeks was my $RIVN trade. It had the first range move out of a multi week base, then pulled back into the 9/21. I bought it right as it started turning back up on the right side of the V. and that pullback entry gave me everything I wanted. A clean spot to risk against, and that’s the blueprint I want to repeat over and over again. Not every pullback is buyable, but the first pullback after a range expansion is one of the most consistent patterns I’ve seen in my own data. It can show up as a smaller base within a larger base, or as the first pullback after a new ATH is made. either way, it’s the same idea... heavy demand is present, then the market gives you a reset to enter without chasing. This is also where U&R setups become my favorite entry model. I love when price undercuts a major pivot (prior day lows, a weekly low, an important swing low, an obvious level everyone’s watching) shakes out the weak hands, and then reclaims. Stops cluster at obvious levels, liquidity appears, and once it reclaims, the trapped sellers become fuel as they must cover their positions. When that U&R happens near rising EMAs or a higher TF pivot, it’s one of my favorite entries. That’s really what 2026 is about for me... buying HLs with multiple layers of probability stacked all together. because of this I'll be practicing more patience to let the best ones come to me. and the more I study my past winners, the more I realize the same theme keeps showing up: the best moves started with tight risk at the moment price started turning back up.61847.1K
- A main focus for me heading into 2026 is to put even more emphasis on buying pullbacks into the 9/21 EMAs on leaders in leading sectors/themes. I’ve been backtesting and refining this for the past couple of months, and the more data I review, the more obvious it becomes... the highest quality momentum runs are rarely caught by chasing the obvious breakout. They’re caught by getting positioned when the stock turns back up out of a pullback, with structure underneath you and a clear line in the sand. The reason pullback buys fit my style is simple: risk is tighter and more logical. When a leader pulls back into the 9/21 EMAs, I am buying a defined area where demand has historically shown up, where weak hands often get shaken, and where I can lean against a pivot with precision in execution. If it holds, I'm early in the next leg. If it fails, I'm wrong quickly. ... and that’s the entire game. It’s consistently finding entries where I can define asymmetric risk and let momentum do the dirty work. A great example from the past couple of weeks was my $RIVN trade. It had the first range move out of a multi week base, then pulled back into the 9/21. I bought it right as it started turning back up on the right side of the V. and that pullback entry gave me everything I wanted. A clean spot to risk against, and that’s the blueprint I want to repeat over and over again. Not every pullback is buyable, but the first pullback after a range expansion is one of the most consistent patterns I’ve seen in my own data. It can show up as a smaller base within a larger base, or as the first pullback after a new ATH is made. either way, it’s the same idea... heavy demand is present, then the market gives you a reset to enter without chasing. This is also where U&R setups become my favorite entry model. I love when price undercuts a major pivot (prior day lows, a weekly low, an important swing low, an obvious level everyone’s watching) shakes out the weak hands, and then reclaims. Stops cluster at obvious levels, liquidity appears, and once it reclaims, the trapped sellers become fuel as they must cover their positions. When that U&R happens near rising EMAs or a higher TF pivot, it’s one of my favorite entries. That’s really what 2026 is about for me... buying HLs with multiple layers of probability stacked all together. because of this I'll be practicing more patience to let the best ones come to me. and the more I study my past winners, the more I realize the same theme keeps showing up: the best moves started with tight risk at the moment price started turning back up.2934367141K
- btw... there's a difference between a market bouncing off oversold conditions & a market rallying because demand is returning. The 1st can happen through oversold mean reversion/short covering. The 2nd requires improving leadership, constructive price action & follow-through.124938.6K
- Finding the right stock and finding the right time to trade it are 2 completely different skills. You can find the strongest stock in the strongest group, execute a precise entry, and still get stopped out simply because the broader market isn't cooperating. I like to think about it like swimming against a current. You might be the strongest swimmer in the water, but you're making your life unnecessarily difficult fighting something much bigger than yourself, and I think the same applies to trading. A huge portion of an individual stock's performance is influenced by the broader environment + its respective industry group. That's why, during corrections, I'm not necessarily looking to buy the stocks holding up best. I'm studying them. Which names are holding their 9/21EMAs while the indexes lose theirs? Which groups are refusing to make new lows? Where is volume drying up on pullbacks, and where are buyers consistently defending key weekly levels? Those are the footprints I'm paying attention to while everyone else is trying to predict the exact bottom. Then, when the $SPY & $QQQ begin curling off the right side, reclaiming key moving averages (like today) and showing broader participation, I've already done the homework. I'm not scrambling through 100s of charts trying to figure out what's strong. I've spent the entire correction adding and subtracting names from my watchlists, identifying the strongest groups, and narrowing down the leaders within them. From there, I'm looking for my familiar setups such as constructive daily pullbacks, tight consolidations, 9/21EMA reclaims, etc where I can define risk against a nearby low. I'll typically start with smaller exposure and only press as my positions begin working + the market confirms the turn. I'm just trying to be prepared enough to recognize leadership when the wind finally shifts in my favor. Some of my best opportunities have come from the work I did when there was absolutely nothing worth trading. That's the part of this business I wish I'd understood sooner.iain @ohiainA friendly reminder: “When the market is going down, don’t trade relative strength, just track it.” “When the market starts to trade higher, then you trade relative strength.” - @RealSimpleAriel610918.4K
- A friendly reminder: “When the market is going down, don’t trade relative strength, just track it.” “When the market starts to trade higher, then you trade relative strength.” - @RealSimpleAriel102030217.6K
- Between working a 9-5, getting my Master's, running my own businesses, ministry, trading + somehow tweeting like I'm unemployed, I've learned a thing or two about time management. You can make just about every excuse in the world for why you're not consistent or profitable in the market yet. Not enough time, too much going on, the market sucks, your account isn't big enough. Trust me, I've made plenty of those excuses myself over the last few years. Here's what my life looks like right now: I work a 9-5 Monday through Thursday, take Master's classes all day Friday, have retreats every other weekend, live with 16 other people in the heart of downtown, serve in ministry throughout my community, run my own businesses, trade part-time + somehow tweet like it's my full-time job. I'm also trying to prioritize my relationship with God, my health, and the people around me. I'll be trading full-time next summer, but until then, I've had to simplify and automate as much of my trading process as possible. I could argue that I don't have enough time to study charts, journal, or improve as a trader. And some days, I genuinely don't, but there's a big difference between not having time and not making time for what you say matters to you. You cannot 1/2ass the work and expect extraordinary results. there are absolutely 0 shortcuts in this business. You can buy every course, join every community, and follow every successful trader on this app, but NONE of them can do the work for you. At some point, you've gotta study 1000s of charts, review the trades you screwed up, understand why your equity curve keeps rolling over, and actively change your behavior. You don't need 12 hours a day staring at screens, but you DO need to identify the few things that actually move the needle and consistently execute them. This has easily been the busiest season of my life, but also one of the most rewarding. I'm learning that working hard doesn't mean neglecting your relationships, sacrificing your health or making trading your entire identity. I want trading to give me more freedom to love people, serve my community and be present, not chain me to a screen for the next 40 years. and please don't mistake this for me having everything figured out. I've lost a stupid amount of $$ learning this business, still take trades I shouldn't, and struggle with balancing everything on my plate. This account is my personal journal. I post what I want, when I want, and share what I'm learning along the way. I'm not interested in pretending to be some flawless trader. Hard work doesn't guarantee profitability, but refusing to put in the work makes developing a lasting edge almost impossible. My encouragement is to start doing the 1 thing you know you should be doing but keep putting off. Review your last 30+ trades, build a repeatable playbook, cut your position sizes or get serious about managing risk. Stop waiting for the perfect schedule or market environment, because there will always be something competing for your attention. life is ridiculously short. Bet on yourself, stay curious, learn from people better than you, and don't forget to enjoy the life you're working so hard to build. Above everything, I'm grateful to God for the opportunity to do what I love and serve others in sharing this journey with y'all. I'm not perfect. just a youngin' trying figuring it out, one day at a time. TGBTG, my friends!;)12518814.1K
- I'd like to formally apologize to $FSLY for demoting it on my watchlist 2 weeks ago. Back on my radar heading into Q3 earnings on Nov. 4 (AMC). Edge cloud/AI infrastructure + cybersecurity theme.
iain @ohiainIf we were in a true greenlight environment, I think $FSLY would be one of the more attractive fat-pitch setups on my screens right now, with a massive base and a potential Stage 2 transition. The environment has been difficult, so I'm not forcing anything, but if the group + broader market start cooperating, I think $FSLY could have a pretty explosive move out of this base. From compression comes expansion! Chart: $FSLY.50577.2K - If we were in a true greenlight environment, I think $FSLY would be one of the more attractive fat-pitch setups on my screens right now, with a massive base and a potential Stage 2 transition. The environment has been difficult, so I'm not forcing anything, but if the group + broader market start cooperating, I think $FSLY could have a pretty explosive move out of this base. From compression comes expansion! Chart: $FSLY.
1635710.8K - Someone told me years ago to think of price action as compression → expansion, and it forever changed how I look at charts. $QCOM is an example of just how simple (not easy) this business can be sometimes. Rinse, repeat & manage risk. Chart: $QCOM.
iain @ohiainBig inflection pivot here on $QCOM as price is sitting right at last week's highs. - multi-week base > the 200day - low vol. PB into support - reclaimed the 50ema today - sellers lacking aggression These are all signs of absorption that I take note of, watching a move > 180s.53738.8K - Big inflection pivot here on $QCOM as price is sitting right at last week's highs. - multi-week base > the 200day - low vol. PB into support - reclaimed the 50ema today - sellers lacking aggression These are all signs of absorption that I take note of, watching a move > 180s.
507111.2K - I break most of my pullback entries into 3 parts: 1. LOCATION: Stock pulls into the 9/21EMA, prior support or another meaningful level. 2. CONFIRMATION: Buyers respond + a 15/30 minute pivot develops. 3. EXECUTION: Enter through the pivot with risk defined against the relevant low. The mistake I made for years was skipping step 2.101322112.6K
- $IWM is sitting at a pretty logical spot for a potential interim bottom on the weekly chart, with a weekly pivot retest + 50week EMA support aligning with today's intraday 200day reclaim. This is the confluence I'd want to see buyers defend aggressively here. @YousufTrades:)
83527K - Some of the most expensive trades you'll ever take begin with the words, "There's NO WAY this can go any higher/lower." Ask me how I know.iain @ohiainBeen cash heavy the last 2 weeks, taken exactly 2 trades since October 13th (both tiny Ls), and have been sitting on my bum ever since. Still tracking the market daily, but outside of a few mean reversion opportunities into declining MAs + relative strength in software names like $PLTR, $RBRK, etc... I'm genuinely not seeing much that's actionable for my system just yet. Am I doing this right?52667.7K
- I got much more consistent at trading when I stopped trying to get better at entries. Sounds backward, right? The first 2+ years, I'd obsess over the exact candle, reclaim, checklist, and tactic while completely ignoring whether the stock was actually a leader. Sometimes I'd nail the entry and still lose, but now I spend most of my time identifying the strongest stocks in the strongest groups. The entry only comes later!! Relative strength first, setup second, and then entry third, because a B+ entry in an A+ stock beats an A+ entry in a C stock every single time. I wish someone had told me that sooner.222330214.5K
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