Friends:
Hein Goemans and I have a piece in Foreign Affairs explaining why negotiated peace is very unlikely because of Russia.
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Branislav Slantchev✓
@slantchev
Professor of Political Science at the University of California San Diego IR theory and conflict, formal modeling. All views expressed here are strictly personal
500 Following22.8K Followers37.7K Posts
- That 77% of Republicans who said the Iran war was not a factor in their vote are the share of the 6% who said that. And since Republicans contributed about 43% of the overall vote, this means that (77x6)/43=10.744 percent of Republicans said the Iran War was not a factor. In other words, nearly 90% said that it was.
Steve Krakauer @SteveKrakHOW103268 
- Not a threat. Just a reminder that it would be a shame if something happened to them.Clash Report @clashreportThe White House warned more than 3,000 conservative groups that it is monitoring their public statements following Republicans’ crushing midterm defeat. The warning comes as prominent Republicans blame Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war for losing control of Congress. The administration says the memo is not a threat but an effort to keep its increasingly divided conservative coalition united. Source: WSJ0013348
The White House warned more than 3,000 conservative groups that it is monitoring their public statements following Republicans’ crushing midterm defeat. The warning comes as prominent Republicans blame Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war for losing control of Congress. The administration says the memo is not a threat but an effort to keep its increasingly divided conservative coalition united. Source: WSJ
205421630.6K- This is going to go nowhere fast. The Kremlin’s demands are ludicrous. The Russians are behaving as if they have defeated NATO when they are still stuck at Mala Tokmachka. In Donetsk, they are still hurling themselves at the old fortified line and haven’t even reached the massively expanded fortifications the Ukrainians built over the past two years. This is delusional nonsense that only a cretin like Trump could believe.Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 @jurgen_naudittThe Russian Federation is working on "post-war arrangements" while simultaneously issuing ultimatums, reports journalist Pavlyuchenko, citing statements made by Dmitriyev during negotiations with U.S. representatives. Putin is reportedly open to declaring a so-called "energy ceasefire" before the end of the year. However, the Russian side has conditioned this on Ukraine completely halting all attacks on civilian infrastructure, as well as on oil and gas facilities within Russia. The Russian delegation has been instructed to draft a package of documents concerning the "post-war future." The Kremlin intends to incorporate these into a comprehensive treaty that—reportedly—would include "security guarantees" for both sides, as well as a new deterrence system in Europe. According to the Russian side, the plan is to have these documents finalized by the spring of next year. Dmitriyev stated that Putin is prepared to consider a "territorial compromise" that would allow Ukraine to retain control over the unoccupied parts of the Donbas. This, however, is strictly contingent upon the fulfillment of a broader list of demands from the Kremlin. These include: a significant reduction in the size and armament of the Ukrainian armed forces; concessions regarding the language issue; the restoration of the influence of the Russian Orthodox Church; and the complete withdrawal of NATO infrastructure from the Baltic states and Scandinavia. 😂😂😂 Furthermore, Russian representatives signaled that they might consent to the deployment of a "coalition of the willing" force into Ukraine—though only within its western regions, and strictly on the condition that Russia’s security demands are met.418911.2K
The Russian Federation is working on "post-war arrangements" while simultaneously issuing ultimatums, reports journalist Pavlyuchenko, citing statements made by Dmitriyev during negotiations with U.S. representatives. Putin is reportedly open to declaring a so-called "energy ceasefire" before the end of the year. However, the Russian side has conditioned this on Ukraine completely halting all attacks on civilian infrastructure, as well as on oil and gas facilities within Russia. The Russian delegation has been instructed to draft a package of documents concerning the "post-war future." The Kremlin intends to incorporate these into a comprehensive treaty that—reportedly—would include "security guarantees" for both sides, as well as a new deterrence system in Europe. According to the Russian side, the plan is to have these documents finalized by the spring of next year. Dmitriyev stated that Putin is prepared to consider a "territorial compromise" that would allow Ukraine to retain control over the unoccupied parts of the Donbas. This, however, is strictly contingent upon the fulfillment of a broader list of demands from the Kremlin. These include: a significant reduction in the size and armament of the Ukrainian armed forces; concessions regarding the language issue; the restoration of the influence of the Russian Orthodox Church; and the complete withdrawal of NATO infrastructure from the Baltic states and Scandinavia. 😂😂😂 Furthermore, Russian representatives signaled that they might consent to the deployment of a "coalition of the willing" force into Ukraine—though only within its western regions, and strictly on the condition that Russia’s security demands are met.
1679032419.4K- Branislav SlantchevRT @michaeldweiss: How bad is it, you ask? Here is the former PiS-appointed Polish ambassador to the United States. Very pro-American. Or was. MAGA is burning it all down.0814066
- That’s just another way of trying to break the EU. I sure hope the Europeans don’t fall for the “sovereignty” nonsense as they have to pool their sovereignty if they are not going to be dismembered into a bunch of inconsequential states at the mercy of the giants around them.Alex Raufoglu @ralexdcNEW!!! Kushner says the Trump admin is pursuing a new European security framework built around sovereignty and territorial integrity, with no country holding a veto over another’s security alliances. The push comes ahead of next week’s U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks with Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi.615651.4K
NEW!!! Kushner says the Trump admin is pursuing a new European security framework built around sovereignty and territorial integrity, with no country holding a veto over another’s security alliances. The push comes ahead of next week’s U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks with Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi.
Alex Raufoglu @ralexdcNEW!! Kushner says U.S. held high-level security talks with Ukraine, NATO and European partners in Brussels today, focusing on security guarantees and a new European security architecture. 👇365213961K- Branislav SlantchevRT @atrupar: Here's the full 2 minute clip where Trump says he met today with a top Putin crony, adds that a Russia-Ukraine deal will involve "all of Europe," admits he didn't meet with the Ukrainian delegation, then downplays Russia's ongoing atrocities in Ukraine, claiming "Russia is losing civilians also"0980076
- Branislav SlantchevRT @ralexdc: UPDATE!! A U.S. official tells me this was not Trump’s first meeting with Kirill. The two have also met during previous WH visits The official pushed back on suggestions that sanctions barred Dimitriev from traveling here, saying waivers were put in place to clear the tripAlex Raufoglu @ralexdcKirill Dmitriev remains under U.S. Treasury sanctions as of Nov. 5, 2026, designated under a Russia-related executive order first imposed in February 2022. Despite ongoing discussions over sanctions relief, no official de-listing has been announced.0158065
- Kirill Dmitriev remains under U.S. Treasury sanctions as of Nov. 5, 2026, designated under a Russia-related executive order first imposed in February 2022. Despite ongoing discussions over sanctions relief, no official de-listing has been announced.
617828520K - Branislav SlantchevRT @clement_molin: Finally, Russian 🇷🇺 blogger Rybar is putting into question the Russian MOD claims All what is in yellow on his map is in fact under Ukrainian control, but he probably can't say that because it would mean saying that the Russian MOD is lying...0357066
- Trump got his wish: the Democratic voters turned out as if this was a presidential election. The Republican voters treated it as a midterm. Probably also because Trump told them to think of him being on the ballot. It’s a repudiation of Trumpism from both sides.
1226845 - Branislav SlantchevRT @RepStenyHoyer: It is inconceivable that $400 million in appropriated military assistance still hasn’t been delivered to Ukraine. I urge the Pentagon to secure the delivery of this essential equipment right away in order to save lives, protect civilians, & help bring about the victory that must be this war’s end.01.5K083
- Why is she talking in third person? What kind of dissociative disorder is this?Cindy Hyde-Smith @cindyhydesmithCindy Hyde-Smith is going to represent Mississippi in the United States Senate for the next six years. We believe thousands of votes remain to be counted from dozens of Republican counties, and we are confident those votes will reinforce her path to victory. Election officials are continuing the normal process of counting outstanding ballots, including absentee ballots. They must have the time to complete that work and ensure every lawful ballot is accurately counted and every Mississippian’s voice is heard. We expect Democratic lawyers to pull out every stop, and we are prepared. Our focus is on completing the count and returning Cindy Hyde-Smith to the Senate to keep fighting for Mississippi values.3029750
Cindy Hyde-Smith is going to represent Mississippi in the United States Senate for the next six years. We believe thousands of votes remain to be counted from dozens of Republican counties, and we are confident those votes will reinforce her path to victory. Election officials are continuing the normal process of counting outstanding ballots, including absentee ballots. They must have the time to complete that work and ensure every lawful ballot is accurately counted and every Mississippian’s voice is heard. We expect Democratic lawyers to pull out every stop, and we are prepared. Our focus is on completing the count and returning Cindy Hyde-Smith to the Senate to keep fighting for Mississippi values.3.9K1811.7K1.9M- “Population density has become a veto over the rest of the state.” It’s really a fucked up way to run the country with an electoral system where the majority of voters decide who gets to govern. These people are unreal. They keep posting the same idiotic maps of mostly empty areas colored red as if cows had the vote too.Matthew Kolken @mkolkenRural conservatives in deep-blue states are effectively governed without consent. In New York, Republicans win most counties yet still lose statewide by 20 points because dense urban and suburban voters in New York City and its suburbs cast the decisive ballots and vote overwhelmingly Democratic. The result is that rural and upstate communities pay the taxes, live under the regulations, and absorb the costs set by politicians they consistently reject. Same story in California and Illinois. Population density has become a veto over the rest of the state.36581.6K
Rural conservatives in deep-blue states are effectively governed without consent. In New York, Republicans win most counties yet still lose statewide by 20 points because dense urban and suburban voters in New York City and its suburbs cast the decisive ballots and vote overwhelmingly Democratic. The result is that rural and upstate communities pay the taxes, live under the regulations, and absorb the costs set by politicians they consistently reject. Same story in California and Illinois. Population density has become a veto over the rest of the state.2.6K6583.9K768K- The rats are leaving the sinking ship but they will find only pitchforks waiting for them on the shore. Nobody is escaping the disgraceful mess they created.Attorney General Todd Blanche @AGToddBlancheToday, I accepted the resignation of Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon, who led the Civil Rights Division with conviction the past 18 months. She has defended the civil liberties of every American and enforced the law without fear or favor. The Department is grateful for her dedicated public service, and we wish her every success in her future endeavors.1022918
Today, I accepted the resignation of Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon, who led the Civil Rights Division with conviction the past 18 months. She has defended the civil liberties of every American and enforced the law without fear or favor. The Department is grateful for her dedicated public service, and we wish her every success in her future endeavors.3.1K2.4K16.6K879K- He speaks the truth. Obama needs to shut up about this or apologize and make amends. Cozying up to Putin never worked, ever.Mikheil Saakashvili @SaakashviliM1/5 What a hypocrisy - President Obama: Trump betrayed Ukraine. As a Ukrainian National, former governor of Ukraine’s strategic Odesa region, and President of Georgia in 2004-2013. I bitterly remember Obama’s betrayal of America’s strategic partner, Ukraine, in 2014,3222004.9K
Mikheil Saakashvili@SaakashviliM1/5 What a hypocrisy - President Obama: Trump betrayed Ukraine. As a Ukrainian National, former governor of Ukraine’s strategic Odesa region, and President of Georgia in 2004-2013. I bitterly remember Obama’s betrayal of America’s strategic partner, Ukraine, in 2014,167544217.9K- Branislav SlantchevRT @typocatCAv2: Subpoenas Coming for Law Firms Who Capitulated Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) said, law firms “that struck deals with President Donald Trump in early 2025 can expect to be subpoenaed by the House Judiciary Committee next year.” Raskin: “There are major law firms in America,... 1/2047076
- Branislav SlantchevRT @Mariam__Lambert: TWO PICTURES TO DESCRIBE THE DYSTOPIAN WORLD WE ARE LIVING IN‼️🇷🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦 One of the most horrifying spectacles we are witnessing: human suffering turned into a celebration for the cameras. In the first picture, US-sanctioned Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev presents the First Lady with a drawing, reportedly from a Ukrainian girl supposedly said to have “chosen” to be evacuated to Russia. He represents Vladimir Putin, wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes involving the unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children. Yes, you read that correctly. A Ukrainian child taken to the country invading her homeland, presented as a heartwarming story by the representative of the man wanted over the deportation of Ukrainian children. In the second picture are the mothers and grandmother of Oleshky, whose children with disabilities were abducted by Russia in 2022. At Emile Foundation, we worked alongside their relatives to trace them and establish their locations. We know who they are. We know where they are. Yet despite repeated requests, Russia refuses to return them. Four years later, these families are still waiting. Still pleading. Still holding photographs instead of their loved ones. Is this the new world order? The aggressor celebrated as a saviour while the families of those it abducted are left behind? After Alaska, I consider this the most embarrassing and morally horrifying spectacle yet. A ceasefire turned into a carefully staged public relations show, while families continue to suffer. Where is the shame? Where is the humanity? Watching this, I see human lives pushed aside for publicity, political trophies and awards. Officials congratulate one another while mothers beg for their children. And then you wonder why you lost the elections. Americans have empathy. They care about human lives. That includes Republicans who refuse to associate themselves with this shameful spectacle. You cannot expect people to abandon their humanity out of political loyalty. Look at these two pictures. Then tell these mothers what, exactly, they are supposed to celebrate.0642072
- Branislav SlantchevRT @JacobRubashkin: There’s a real irony in Republicans hoping that the late mail votes in Mississippi will rescue Cindy Hyde-Smith — just months after the RNC sued to void Mississippi’s ability to count late-arriving votes and lost at SCOTUS, 5-4.01.8K077
- Branislav SlantchevRT @michaeldweiss: Bad boyars, deranged tsar. “The Trump administration's push to reopen Lithuanian ports to Belarusian potash exports is being driven by U.S. envoy John Coale and does not reflect a broader policy shift in Washington, multiple U.S. and European officials told the Kyiv Independent.”088047
- No, there won’t be any big agreement. Not before Putin agrees to fold.Rapid Response 47 @RapidResponse47.@POTUS: "There's going to be an agreement. It's going to be a big agreement, and it's going to involve more than Ukraine... I could even say it might involve all of Europe. It's going to be a big, beautiful agreement — and everybody is going to be thrilled."1191251.4K
- Get a load of this fucktard: bulldozes half of the White House without congressional permission to construct a monstrosity that can only appeal to the vain empty tasteless bitches like him and thinks he can protect it forever? In just a couple of years, the Trump brand will be so toxic, it will come down every fucking building he’s ever touched.Bulwark Clips @BulwarkClipsTrump announces he's making the Oval Office a national monument so that there can be no major modifications done without the approval of Congress:17491.4K
.@POTUS: "There's going to be an agreement. It's going to be a big agreement, and it's going to involve more than Ukraine... I could even say it might involve all of Europe. It's going to be a big, beautiful agreement — and everybody is going to be thrilled."9622.9K15.4K731K
Trump announces he's making the Oval Office a national monument so that there can be no major modifications done without the approval of Congress:191146240.3K- The Moron in Chief is so devoid of any semblance of humanity and morals that he’s a daily embarrassment to our country.Aaron Rupar @atruparQ: Putin right now kills Ukrainian civilians in their apartments, on buses, in schools. Did you bring that up? TRUMP: I did bring that up, and I always bring it up the other way. The other way they kill too. Russia is losing civilians also8231262.1K
- No European in their right mind should be discussing any matters of security with these two dolts who have Putin on speed dial.Alex Raufoglu @ralexdcNEW!! Kushner says U.S. held high-level security talks with Ukraine, NATO and European partners in Brussels today, focusing on security guarantees and a new European security architecture. 👇6291651.6K
Q: Putin right now kills Ukrainian civilians in their apartments, on buses, in schools. Did you bring that up? TRUMP: I did bring that up, and I always bring it up the other way. The other way they kill too. Russia is losing civilians also5635882.3K405K- NEW!! Kushner says U.S. held high-level security talks with Ukraine, NATO and European partners in Brussels today, focusing on security guarantees and a new European security architecture. 👇31277865.6K
- Branislav SlantchevRT @ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Russian soldiers are reportedly starving to death in a pocket within Russia's Kursk region which has been described as "a second Stalingrad". Thousands are said to have perished, with the unburied bodies and skeletons of Russian soldiers strewn in the streets and woods. ⬇️01.3K060
