Adam Livingston✓

@AdamBLiv

The Bitcoin Wizard | Vice President, Investments @Strive Christ. Family. Bitcoin. In that order.

300 Following89.4K Followers32.8K Posts
  1. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    I’m absolutely elated to announce that I have joined Strive as Vice President, Investments. As you can probably tell, I’ve been obsessed with Bitcoin, capital markets, and the extraordinary financial architecture emerging at the intersection of the two. Now I get to work on that frontier every day. Strive is building alongside one of the most consequential transformations happening in modern finance. Bitcoin becoming productive collateral for an entirely new generation of capital markets instruments, corporate finance, and digital credit. The opportunity to help think through these markets, communicate them, and contribute to what comes next is something I could not be more excited about. Even better, I get to do it alongside an incredible team of talented, ambitious people who are genuinely pushing the frontier forward. I also understand the responsibility that comes with the role. I intend to work relentlessly on behalf of Strive’s shareholders and do everything I can to contribute to the long-term value we are building for them. I’m deeply grateful for the opportunity. Time to build.
    Matt Cole @ColeMacro
    Strive had gone far too long without hiring a podcaster. As our Bitcoin holdings have grown exponentially through accretive capital formation, our podcasters-per-share metric was beginning to move in the wrong direction. Several astute investors have been calling on us to defend our lead in this critical metric, and I agree with them: now is the time to lean in. Today, I’m excited to announce that @AdamBLiv has joined @Strive. Adam represents true excellence as a podcaster, but the reason for this hire is rooted in one of Strive’s foundational principles: meritocracy. Strive has been publicly opposed to DEI from the beginning, but we have also consistently opposed credentialism. Rejecting credentialism has been one of the main reasons we have been able to hire with excellence throughout Strive’s Bitcoin journey. Credentialism causes institutions to outsource their judgment to resumes, pedigrees, titles, and conventional career paths. It puts too much weight on what someone has previously been permitted to do and not enough on the agency, principles, original thinking, work ethic, and demonstrated ability of the person in front of you. At Strive, we give people significant responsibility because of how they think and what they have demonstrated they can do. The results speak for themselves. Our board and management team are young by public-company standards because we select for deep, principled belief in Bitcoin and demonstrated track records, not age, pedigree, or the number of boards someone has served on or executive positions they have already held. When True North was getting started, I publicly supported the “kid analysts” there because they represented the same principle. They were not waiting for an institution to give them permission or a title. They were doing the work, publishing thinking that was better than both traditional media and institutional investment analysis at the time, and allowing the public to judge the quality of it. Adam is an exceptionally clear example of that principle. Before becoming a Bitcoin analyst and creator, his last full-time role was as a manager at @Target. A credentialist sees a former Target manager and asks why he should hold an important analytical role at a public financial company. A meritocrat studies Adam’s body of work and asks how quickly he can start. Adam has consistently published deeply researched, first-principles analysis. He works extraordinarily hard, communicates complex ideas clearly, and has the courage to put contrarian views into the public record where everyone can evaluate them. It also does not hurt that he is freaking hilarious. Nowhere has that been clearer than in his work on Strive. When Strive was at its weakest point in terms of public perception, Adam was buying and explaining why. What impressed me was not simply that he was bullish. It was that he independently arrived at his view through rigorous, first-principles work when sentiment was terrible and almost nobody else saw what he saw. Without any affiliation with Strive or access to internal information, his work was remarkably consistent with what we were seeing from the inside and, at times, even pushed our own analysis a step further. His analysis of Strive’s future growth has been among the most holistic I have seen anywhere, including internally. Most importantly, he was right. There was real value in having such a credible and completely independent voice analyzing Strive. But Strive has too many opportunities, too much complexity, and too much work ahead of us not to bring the best talent we can find in-house. I view Adam as a potential generational talent in financial analysis. The idea that someone could go from being a manager at Target to helping the most ambitious public company in capital markets navigate an extraordinarily complex competitive landscape may seem absurd to a credentialist. To me, it is meritocracy working exactly as intended. Adam will join Strive as Vice President of Investments, working within our investment function and reporting to our Chief Investment Officer, @Werkman. He will build a systematic research function around the most important companies across the pure-play Bitcoin landscape. He will read every consequential filing, analyze capital structures and capital-markets decisions, and continuously evaluate positioning, valuation, growth rates, competitive dynamics, risks, and forward trajectories. Adam will apply an even deeper level of that same rigor to Strive, now with full access to our internal data and dashboards. His work will help us pressure-test our assumptions, identify opportunities earlier, and make better long-term decisions for our shareholders. He was able to see Strive with extraordinary clarity from the outside. Imagine what he will be able to do from the inside. We also intend for Adam to continue publishing through his existing channel under the @TNorth brand, now with the appropriate disclosures and responsibilities that come with working for a public company. His ability to research deeply and communicate complex ideas in an entertaining way is part of what makes him special, and we want him to keep doing it. The bad news for public markets is that what I consider the best source of independent Strive analysis will no longer be independent. The good news for Strive shareholders is that we are bringing that mind in-house and putting it to work for them. Adam did not earn this opportunity despite lacking a conventional Wall Street resume. He earned it because his public body of work is better evidence of his ability than any conventional résumé could be. Credentialism would have missed Adam. Meritocracy brought him to Strive. Welcome to Strive, Adam. $ASST $SATA
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  2. Matt Cole✓@ColeMacro
    Strive had gone far too long without hiring a podcaster. As our Bitcoin holdings have grown exponentially through accretive capital formation, our podcasters-per-share metric was beginning to move in the wrong direction. Several astute investors have been calling on us to defend our lead in this critical metric, and I agree with them: now is the time to lean in. Today, I’m excited to announce that @AdamBLiv has joined @Strive. Adam represents true excellence as a podcaster, but the reason for this hire is rooted in one of Strive’s foundational principles: meritocracy. Strive has been publicly opposed to DEI from the beginning, but we have also consistently opposed credentialism. Rejecting credentialism has been one of the main reasons we have been able to hire with excellence throughout Strive’s Bitcoin journey. Credentialism causes institutions to outsource their judgment to resumes, pedigrees, titles, and conventional career paths. It puts too much weight on what someone has previously been permitted to do and not enough on the agency, principles, original thinking, work ethic, and demonstrated ability of the person in front of you. At Strive, we give people significant responsibility because of how they think and what they have demonstrated they can do. The results speak for themselves. Our board and management team are young by public-company standards because we select for deep, principled belief in Bitcoin and demonstrated track records, not age, pedigree, or the number of boards someone has served on or executive positions they have already held. When True North was getting started, I publicly supported the “kid analysts” there because they represented the same principle. They were not waiting for an institution to give them permission or a title. They were doing the work, publishing thinking that was better than both traditional media and institutional investment analysis at the time, and allowing the public to judge the quality of it. Adam is an exceptionally clear example of that principle. Before becoming a Bitcoin analyst and creator, his last full-time role was as a manager at @Target. A credentialist sees a former Target manager and asks why he should hold an important analytical role at a public financial company. A meritocrat studies Adam’s body of work and asks how quickly he can start. Adam has consistently published deeply researched, first-principles analysis. He works extraordinarily hard, communicates complex ideas clearly, and has the courage to put contrarian views into the public record where everyone can evaluate them. It also does not hurt that he is freaking hilarious. Nowhere has that been clearer than in his work on Strive. When Strive was at its weakest point in terms of public perception, Adam was buying and explaining why. What impressed me was not simply that he was bullish. It was that he independently arrived at his view through rigorous, first-principles work when sentiment was terrible and almost nobody else saw what he saw. Without any affiliation with Strive or access to internal information, his work was remarkably consistent with what we were seeing from the inside and, at times, even pushed our own analysis a step further. His analysis of Strive’s future growth has been among the most holistic I have seen anywhere, including internally. Most importantly, he was right. There was real value in having such a credible and completely independent voice analyzing Strive. But Strive has too many opportunities, too much complexity, and too much work ahead of us not to bring the best talent we can find in-house. I view Adam as a potential generational talent in financial analysis. The idea that someone could go from being a manager at Target to helping the most ambitious public company in capital markets navigate an extraordinarily complex competitive landscape may seem absurd to a credentialist. To me, it is meritocracy working exactly as intended. Adam will join Strive as Vice President of Investments, working within our investment function and reporting to our Chief Investment Officer, @Werkman. He will build a systematic research function around the most important companies across the pure-play Bitcoin landscape. He will read every consequential filing, analyze capital structures and capital-markets decisions, and continuously evaluate positioning, valuation, growth rates, competitive dynamics, risks, and forward trajectories. Adam will apply an even deeper level of that same rigor to Strive, now with full access to our internal data and dashboards. His work will help us pressure-test our assumptions, identify opportunities earlier, and make better long-term decisions for our shareholders. He was able to see Strive with extraordinary clarity from the outside. Imagine what he will be able to do from the inside. We also intend for Adam to continue publishing through his existing channel under the @TNorth brand, now with the appropriate disclosures and responsibilities that come with working for a public company. His ability to research deeply and communicate complex ideas in an entertaining way is part of what makes him special, and we want him to keep doing it. The bad news for public markets is that what I consider the best source of independent Strive analysis will no longer be independent. The good news for Strive shareholders is that we are bringing that mind in-house and putting it to work for them. Adam did not earn this opportunity despite lacking a conventional Wall Street resume. He earned it because his public body of work is better evidence of his ability than any conventional résumé could be. Credentialism would have missed Adam. Meritocracy brought him to Strive. Welcome to Strive, Adam. $ASST $SATA
    2881281.8K390K
  3. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Adam Livingston
    RT @ColeMacro: Our capital markets decisions are driven by what we believe will maximize our *long-run* total returns. We have been consistent that we believe the most powerful and sustainable engine to power total returns in excess of Bitcoin is our amplification ratio. We've built a leading amplification ratio today at over 60%, but maximizing our amplification ratio over the long-run requires continuing to support our Digital Credit products. Demonstrating continued access to capital markets during drawdowns and slower periods has been provably helpful in building a track record of success for the credit strength embedded in those instruments. I expect the importance of this track record, specifically how Strive executed during this bear market, to increase in the coming years. I respectfully disagree that a "honeymoon" period is over for Strive as I believe we've only now built an amplification engine that has a durable moat along with no PIPE warrants remaining. I don't think most investors even understand the value of our amplification engine yet, which makes sense as amplification is designed to generate returns when Bitcoin moves up, and its been largely flat this year. When Bitcoin slows down, our base case is patience, and we've demonstrated that several times during this past year, but we've also demonstrated we're always ready to take bold actions on a moments notice. Less macro than the above, but we think $SATA has continued to trade very strong with strong demand. Even with the significant spike in $SATA short interest reported on 10/15, which was shortly after the announcement of $SATS, $SATA remains not much below $99, without a single dollar of buybacks. There are index rebalances coming up which should put in some decent size orders for $SATA. We've generally leaned towards increasing the interest rate over buybacks, but have also demonstrated multiple times that patience (doing nothing) can do the trick as well, as these are very attractive products. Lastly, there is an interesting, but large divergence in the viewpoint among many retail investors vs institutional shareholders in terms of common equity ATM usage. The institutions overwhelmingly want more common equity ATM usage with any premium, many retail investors want less or none. Our view has consistenly been in the middle, and I believe taking the extreme on either side would raise our overall cost of capital. We recently explained this to several of our large institutional shareholders asking for more common equity ATM usage during the $SATS IPO, and I want to offer the same to the retail investors asking for the opposite. During the last bull market, the vast majority of excess returns for MSTR over Bitcoin were driven by accretive common equity issuance. We've been consistent in our belief that it wasn't a sustainable model because there was no amplification engine, but also believe it was the rational decision at the time, as a high mNAV without amplification wouldn't have been sustainable either. The ideal scenario has always been having an amplification engine that has scarcity and sustainable growth while also being able to issue common equity accretively. Importantly, accretive common equity issuance isn't a requirement, as the amplification drives the majority of returns, unlike the last bull market, but it's a potential return amplifier. What this means in practice is likely less relative common equity ATM issuance than what investors saw MSTR do during the last bull market. That said, it will probably be more common equity issuance than some retail investors would want, and less than many institutional investors want, driven by what we believe will maximize total returns based on all of the data and information we have access to.
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  4. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Adam Livingston
    RT @ColeMacro: Abundance from Super Intelligence will create exponential value for scarce assets. Bitcoin will be the most valuable scarce asset. The optimal play: learn & use Super Intelligence & buy Bitcoin. Ignore FUD from those who've been consistenly wrong.
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  5. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Bitcoin is 119 days off the June 30 bottom ($58.5K). At day 119 in past cycles, the next ATH was still: 2015: 652 days away 2018: 597 days away 2022: 350 days away Each cycle cut the wait by an average of ~27%. Do it again → ~256 days. That's a new ATH around July 2027. The bottom is the easy part. The wait is the hard part.
    Download
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  6. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Adam Livingston
    RT @HurdleRatePod: In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down Strive’s biggest buy ever, 6,182 BTC to reach 43,000, plus the new $1B $SATS ATM and hitting 61% amplification on $ASST. They also discuss SpaceX’s $SPCX $40B GPU deal, why perpetual Digital Credit beats time-bound chip financing, and whether capital is the last moat. Here’s the latest with @PunterJeff, @Werkman, @IIICapital, @AdamBLiv, and @TimKotzman. Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:39 - 43,000 BTC And The SATS ATM 04:41 - Our Largest Bitcoin Buy Ever 10:35 - Engineering Amplified $BTC 14:25 - Is The Bear Market Over? 21:49 - Inside SpaceX’s $40B GPU Deal 26:57 - GPUs Vs. Bitcoin As Collateral 31:29 - Why Perpetual Beats Time Bound 39:08 - Is Capital The Last Moat? 51:25 - Will AI Labs Hold Bitcoin? 56:05 - The Future Of Income 01:00:27 - Risk Is Mispriced
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  7. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Bitcoin just flipped bullish vs. gold. BTC/XAU has reclaimed its 200-day trend after a 316-day stretch below it. That’s only happened 3 other times: Jun 2015 → BTC +142% next 12M Apr 2019 → BTC +42% next 12M Jan 2023 → BTC +84% next 12M Signal #4 went live in August. And look at the backdrop it did it in: 10Y hit 5.31%, the highest in 13+ years. 30Y hit 5.67%. DXY climbed back to ~102. Despite all that, BTC is +37% off its June low while gold is flat. One BTC buys 20 oz of gold again, up 64% from the March low. Bitcoin is rallying against high rates and a firmer dollar. I think this means Bitcoin is a coiled spring:
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  8. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    More Bitcoin.
    Matt Cole @ColeMacro
    Strive acquired 6,182 $BTC for $511.4M at an average cost of $82,732 per bitcoin, bringing total holdings to ₿43,000. - Cash and marketable securities increased by $187.7M to $554.6M. - Established a $1B $SATS ATM program. $ASST $SATA $SATS
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  9. Matt Cole✓@ColeMacro
    Strive acquired 6,182 $BTC for $511.4M at an average cost of $82,732 per bitcoin, bringing total holdings to ₿43,000. - Cash and marketable securities increased by $187.7M to $554.6M. - Established a $1B $SATS ATM program. $ASST $SATA $SATS
    Download
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  10. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Neocloud panic over an Elon tweet. Doomer panic over AI cyber attacks. Political panic over war and elections. Buying Bitcoin and sleeping like a baby.
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  11. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Adam Livingston
    RT @TNorth: $MSTR holders are more convicted than Bitcoiners. And the data proves it. @SullyMichaelvan joins @AdamBLiv to break down the sentiment data behind amplified Bitcoin, $BTC's philosophical civil war, and why he thinks we’re in a disbelief rally. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:39 Bitcoin’s Philosophical Civil War 06:29 Why Buy Bitcoin Treasury Companies 11:30 The Merton Model Explained 22:33 Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Historic Lows 32:41 How Michael Measures Sentiment 37:47 MSTR Holders Vs. Bitcoiners 44:20 The Coldcard Divide 47:49 Strive Sentiment After The Reverse Split 53:48 Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? 57:07 Bitcoin’s Correlation With Gold 59:29 Closing Thoughts
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  12. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    “Bitcoin is too volatile.” Fine. Let’s price the volatility. Sharpe ratio since Jan 2020, after subtracting T-bill yields: Bitcoin 0.85 Nasdaq 0.71 Gold 0.69 S&P 500 0.58 Silver 0.54 The most volatile asset on the board paid the most per unit of risk. Bitcoin pays you for the volatility:
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  13. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    I had an awesome conversation with @SullyMichaelvan on a personal theory of mine: Investors deliberately choosing amplified Bitcoin exposure may have even stronger conviction than Bitcoiners themselves. @SullyMichaelvan and I put that hypothesis to the test using actual investor sentiment data. The findings are fascinating. Lots of interesting signal as we look into the data here. You’re gonna want to check this one out!
    True North @TNorth
    $MSTR holders are more convicted than Bitcoiners. And the data proves it. @SullyMichaelvan joins @AdamBLiv to break down the sentiment data behind amplified Bitcoin, $BTC's philosophical civil war, and why he thinks we’re in a disbelief rally. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:39 Bitcoin’s Philosophical Civil War 06:29 Why Buy Bitcoin Treasury Companies 11:30 The Merton Model Explained 22:33 Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Historic Lows 32:41 How Michael Measures Sentiment 37:47 MSTR Holders Vs. Bitcoiners 44:20 The Coldcard Divide 47:49 Strive Sentiment After The Reverse Split 53:48 Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? 57:07 Bitcoin’s Correlation With Gold 59:29 Closing Thoughts
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  14. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Bitcoin is now just 1.5× as volatile as gold. In Jan 2022 it was 6.1×. BTC 1-yr vol: 81% → 44% Gold 1-yr vol: 14% → 29% The “volatile asset” and the “safe haven” are converging, and it’s happening from both directions:
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  15. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    There are approximately 8 billion people on Earth and there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. Most people still think the important question is whether Bitcoin looks expensive today. I’m increasingly convinced the important question is what happens when the rest of humanity starts taking absolute scarcity seriously.
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  16. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Bitcoin is 535 days from the halving. The last 3 times BTC was exactly here, it was higher by halving day. Every time. 2015: +185% 2018: +100% 2022: +222% Median: +185%. From $80K, that’s ~$228K by April 2028. The clock is ticking:
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  17. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    This might be the wildest minimum wage statistic I've ever seen. In 1971, the federal minimum wage was $1.60 per hour. Gold averaged $40.92 per ounce. It took 26 hours of minimum-wage labor to earn an ounce of gold. In 2025, the federal minimum wage was $7.25. Gold averaged $3,432 per ounce. It took 473 hours of labor to earn that same ounce. Your hourly wage increased 4.5× in dollars. The amount of labor required to acquire gold increased 18.5×. Measured in gold, the federal minimum wage lost approximately 95% of its value. Fifty-four years of nominal wage increases, and one hour of work buys a fraction of the monetary asset it once did.
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  18. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Imagine telling someone in 2009 that governments would run multitrillion-dollar deficits, the largest asset managers on Earth would sell Bitcoin exposure, and people would STILL be arguing that the magical internet coins were the speculative part of the equation. Incredible civilization.
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  19. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Live on BTC Sessions talking Bitcoin, SATS IPO, and macro!
    BTC Sessions 😎 @BTCsessions
    Node2Shell Exploit Hits OpenAI Stack - Gold Drops as Iran War Fears Escalate
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  20. BTC Sessions 😎✓@BTCsessions
    Node2Shell Exploit Hits OpenAI Stack - Gold Drops as Iran War Fears Escalate
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  21. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Digital Credit volume is up ~22% week-over-week. Prior week (Oct 5–9): $1.04B This week (Oct 19–23): $1.27B $SATS started trading on the 20th and already put up $221.5M. Strive’s $SATA + $SATS together captured the bulk of non-STRC flow:
    True North @TNorth
    Digital Credit · Week in Review (Oct 19–23) Three up, three down. $1.27B traded. ▲ $SATS +1.74% · $221.5M* ▲ $STRC +1.65% · $738.8M ▲ $SATA +1.18% · $222.0M ▼ $STRD −1.62% · $30.2M ▼ $STRF −2.12% · $27.3M ▼ $STRK −3.00% · $32.2M $SATS is the latest addition to the digital credit market. Public trading began on the 20th. $STRC took 58% of the flow. Strive’s $SATA and $SATS took 83.2% of the rest:
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  22. True North✓@TNorth
    Digital Credit · Week in Review (Oct 19–23) Three up, three down. $1.27B traded. ▲ $SATS +1.74% · $221.5M* ▲ $STRC +1.65% · $738.8M ▲ $SATA +1.18% · $222.0M ▼ $STRD −1.62% · $30.2M ▼ $STRF −2.12% · $27.3M ▼ $STRK −3.00% · $32.2M $SATS is the latest addition to the digital credit market. Public trading began on the 20th. $STRC took 58% of the flow. Strive’s $SATA and $SATS took 83.2% of the rest:
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  23. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    SATS vs. SATA - What's the Difference? If you are interested in the differences between $SATS and $SATA, you're in luck! Today I want to explain why Strive offers two preferred equities with fundamentally different objectives:
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  24. Adam Livingston✓@AdamBLiv
    Posts @AdamBLiv
    Learn more about $SATS and $SATA at
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