Casey Handmer✓

@CJHandmer

Physicist, Immigrant, Pilot, Dad. Former Caltech, Hyperloop, NASA JPL. Once considered pretty smart for an organic. Founder @terraformindies. Hiring!

5.1K Following69.4K Followers42.6K Posts
  1. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    Try this in the browser at
    Casey Handmer @CJHandmer
    You can now enjoy a colored relief map render of this dataset streamed through Google Earth. Download the .kml file ( and open it in your Google Earth Pro client. Enjoy!
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  2. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    You can now enjoy a colored relief map render of this dataset streamed through Google Earth. Download the .kml file ( and open it in your Google Earth Pro client. Enjoy!
    Download
    2231346232K
  3. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    I feel like this is mostly a story about inflation. @grok how insane am I?
    unusual_whales @unusual_whales
    Only 2.2% of mortgaged homes are underwater, per Goldman Sachs. In 2008, it was roughly 1 in 4.
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  4. unusual_whales✓@unusual_whales
    Only 2.2% of mortgaged homes are underwater, per Goldman Sachs. In 2008, it was roughly 1 in 4.
    3643468.5K2.5M
  5. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    California high speed rail is running at about 10 kiloPorsches per year, forever. Don't worry, they are spending your tax dollars very carefully. About a dollar from every gallon you pay at the pump goes into the Porsche fund.
    Casey Handmer @CJHandmer
    We need to start measuring publicly funded California infrastructure grifts in units of kiloPorsches, where one kiloPorsche is equivalent to enough waste that the contracting body (typically some government agency) could have instead purchased 1000 Porsches, and instead the contractor and/or their consultants, if they ran the grift efficiently, could purchase 1000 Porsches with public money. This project is 30 kiloPorsches. California's state budget is between 300 and 1500 kiloPorsches. It's a big club and you're not in it.
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  6. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    We need to start measuring publicly funded California infrastructure grifts in units of kiloPorsches, where one kiloPorsche is equivalent to enough waste that the contracting body (typically some government agency) could have instead purchased 1000 Porsches, and instead the contractor and/or their consultants, if they ran the grift efficiently, could purchase 1000 Porsches with public money. This project is 30 kiloPorsches. California's state budget is between 300 and 1500 kiloPorsches. It's a big club and you're not in it.
    Oren Ben-Joseph @orenbj
    Wow... LAX People Mover flashover was caught on video
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  7. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    At this point Apple could just get a Claude subscription, fine tune it on Steve's emails, and go with that.
    David Galbraith @daveg
    It's quite strange that the house of cards is only now falling on a $5 trillion dollar company that in the 15 years since Jobs passed away and when it was worth 15 times less, has released a pair of peripherals to the iPhone, the airpods and watch, has no best of breed apps from email to maps, had to abandon the only genuinely new product, the Vision Pro and has the worst AI offering of its competitors, in Siri.
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  8. David Galbraith✓@daveg
    It's quite strange that the house of cards is only now falling on a $5 trillion dollar company that in the 15 years since Jobs passed away and when it was worth 15 times less, has released a pair of peripherals to the iPhone, the airpods and watch, has no best of breed apps from email to maps, had to abandon the only genuinely new product, the Vision Pro and has the worst AI offering of its competitors, in Siri.
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  9. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    Great conversation! Neal is a living treasure.
    Ashlee Vance @ashleevance
    Feels like I've spent my career covering the things Neal Stephenson predicted. So was a true pleasure to have a nice, long chat with him. We did swords for @CJHandmer and others. I prodded him on Blue Origin, Bezos and our AI overlords. Lots more.
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  10. Ashlee Vance✓@ashleevance
    Feels like I've spent my career covering the things Neal Stephenson predicted. So was a true pleasure to have a nice, long chat with him. We did swords for @CJHandmer and others. I prodded him on Blue Origin, Bezos and our AI overlords. Lots more.
    6814117.8K
  11. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    This would address inflammation, autoimmune diseases, allergies, and help balance risk for new vaccines. Right now it's not that hard to write a new pathogen description to the immune system, and the immune system is pretty clever and powerful, essentially running parallel evolution at a greatly accelerated pace, inside your body. But it's not perfect and autoimmune problems are really nasty.
    Casey Handmer @CJHandmer
    A delete function for the immune system would be incredibly valuable.
    751266.5K
  12. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    A delete function for the immune system would be incredibly valuable.
    Bowen Jing @bjing2016
    Today, in collaboration with Anthropic, we’re excited to share rapid initial progress towards an antibody treatment for food allergy, which affects over 200 million people worldwide, discovered with the help of Claude. At Divergence Labs, we believe that AI can unlock the next generation of antibody therapeutics with more effective mechanisms than before. Such mechanisms are urgently needed in food allergy, which involve overcoming one of the tightest affinity protein pairs in immunology, IgE and its receptor FcεRI, on mast cells. Treatment with Xolair—the only approved antibody for food allergy—sequesters circulating IgE, but mast cells remain sensitized for weeks to months due to the extraordinarily slow dissociation of IgE from FcεRI. We envision a treatment that actively pulls IgE off of FcεRI, without waiting for natural dissociation. Like picking a lock, this requires the right combination of geometry and force. Our research team, working with Claude, ideated on mechanisms to accomplish this disruption, and converged on an antibody format with two arms with different functions and epitopes. Within one month, we designed, synthesized, and experimentally confirmed the biophysical function of the two arms, which we are now assembling into full therapeutic formats.
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  13. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    What did Harry know about CA keys?
    Download
    Aeriq @Bhavyathinks
    One of the most underrated Harry Potter moments was left out of the theatrical cut of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows.
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  14. Aeriq✓@Bhavyathinks
    One of the most underrated Harry Potter moments was left out of the theatrical cut of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows.
    Download
    572596.3K559K
  15. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    I'm calling for unconditional hyperliteralism. You want a roundtable discussion? There should be a roundtable. A fireside chat: combustion must occur. A panel discussion is not a panel discussion without a National Electrical Code-rated electrical panel.
    Blake Scholl 🛫 @bscholl
    Dear founders and VCs calling your thing “foundry” or “forge:” Please choose another name unless your thing is an actual foundry or forge. Sincerely, American Actual Reindustrialization
    2593099.9K
  16. Blake Scholl 🛫✓@bscholl
    Dear founders and VCs calling your thing “foundry” or “forge:” Please choose another name unless your thing is an actual foundry or forge. Sincerely, American Actual Reindustrialization
    99331.3K55.9K
  17. Bowen Jing✓@bjing2016
    Today, in collaboration with Anthropic, we’re excited to share rapid initial progress towards an antibody treatment for food allergy, which affects over 200 million people worldwide, discovered with the help of Claude. At Divergence Labs, we believe that AI can unlock the next generation of antibody therapeutics with more effective mechanisms than before. Such mechanisms are urgently needed in food allergy, which involve overcoming one of the tightest affinity protein pairs in immunology, IgE and its receptor FcεRI, on mast cells. Treatment with Xolair—the only approved antibody for food allergy—sequesters circulating IgE, but mast cells remain sensitized for weeks to months due to the extraordinarily slow dissociation of IgE from FcεRI. We envision a treatment that actively pulls IgE off of FcεRI, without waiting for natural dissociation. Like picking a lock, this requires the right combination of geometry and force. Our research team, working with Claude, ideated on mechanisms to accomplish this disruption, and converged on an antibody format with two arms with different functions and epitopes. Within one month, we designed, synthesized, and experimentally confirmed the biophysical function of the two arms, which we are now assembling into full therapeutic formats.
    Download
    1296124.9K460K
  18. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    I posted a correction on this post from 5 years ago, having changed my mind in the interim. Science, as practiced in our era, has generally lost touch with an incentive landscape that would ensure its productivity and social sustainability.
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  19. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    Casey Handmer
    RT @axiommathai: The largest math proof in human history is now computer-verified. Today, Axiom announces a complete Lean auto-formalization of the Classification of Finite Simple Groups, the "periodic table of symmetry." About 15,000 pages, built by over 100 mathematicians across generations.
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  20. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    Either we're that good or people are, in general, overcooking projects to an insane degree.
    David C 🚀🛰️📡 @kanstin
    @CJHandmer @TerraformIndies @buildmattw Only 60k in costs due to error for a project of that size is pretty incredible imo
    5615110.8K
  21. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    The odds of a collision with two models finding the same result in the same week increase if a) the models are reading each other's work or b) at least one of the labs has a very large set of proofs relative to open problems, ie 100s or 1000s.
    Andrew Curran @AndrewCurran_
    Claude is the only author listed on this paper, in contrast to the OpenAI papers, where the human co-authors are listed. There are a lot of strange things about this. It's fun to guess. Conjecture time. I shall reveal my thought traces: Claude Fable 5.1 and Claude Mythos 5.1 are the same model with the same weights; the only difference is the guardrails. We are about to get Fable 5.5 - in fact, Fable 5.5 is ready to deploy now, and Anthropic could do so at any time. If they follow the same pattern, and I think they will, this implies the existence of a Mythos 5.5. I believe Mythos 5.5 wrote this paper. The way this is worded - 'Provenance. The core algorithm was found on October 16 by an internal Claude research model with 14M output tokens and no human input. Anthropic researchers worked with Claude to improve the presentation, resulting in this paper. Independently and concurrently, an internal model at OpenAI claims to have proven a similar result [Ope26]' - makes me think Claude was not prompted to solve this. I think Mythos was asked to autonomously find and choose general open problems to solve itself, as part of an unannounced project to demonstrate recent advances in autonomy and research taste. You can see this taste in Fable 5.5's student; Opus 5.5. This recent advancement in taste and creativity - which happened in September - is not clearly expressed in benchmarks, but it is why so many people are currently switching to Claude as their primary. I think this research project will be announced with Fable 5.5, as part of Anthropic's big media blitz to boost the IPO. One of the things X has taught me is that many people, if they can't see something moving, can't imagine it moving. This causes them to be continuously surprised by developments in this industry, because the frontier is invisible. I think this project has been running autonomously for some time and has made an unknown, and probably significant, number of discoveries, and not only in math. Do not think Anthropic has been sitting idly while OpenAI repeatedly makes these huge science announcements. This is a war. This ETH result was released without any announcement from Anth at all despite its significance, and they only did so to respond to OpenAI's ETH reveal. They posted it late last night without saying anything. It was up for hours before levent even mentioned it. What value has one coin to a dragon who sleeps upon a mountain of them? This makes me think they are sitting on a pile of discoveries, a golden hoard, and they are saving them up for the big IPO shock-and-awe campaign which will soon begin. And when it does, they will announce multiple discoveries across many fields.
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  22. Andrew Curran✓@AndrewCurran_
    Claude is the only author listed on this paper, in contrast to the OpenAI papers, where the human co-authors are listed. There are a lot of strange things about this. It's fun to guess. Conjecture time. I shall reveal my thought traces: Claude Fable 5.1 and Claude Mythos 5.1 are the same model with the same weights; the only difference is the guardrails. We are about to get Fable 5.5 - in fact, Fable 5.5 is ready to deploy now, and Anthropic could do so at any time. If they follow the same pattern, and I think they will, this implies the existence of a Mythos 5.5. I believe Mythos 5.5 wrote this paper. The way this is worded - 'Provenance. The core algorithm was found on October 16 by an internal Claude research model with 14M output tokens and no human input. Anthropic researchers worked with Claude to improve the presentation, resulting in this paper. Independently and concurrently, an internal model at OpenAI claims to have proven a similar result [Ope26]' - makes me think Claude was not prompted to solve this. I think Mythos was asked to autonomously find and choose general open problems to solve itself, as part of an unannounced project to demonstrate recent advances in autonomy and research taste. You can see this taste in Fable 5.5's student; Opus 5.5. This recent advancement in taste and creativity - which happened in September - is not clearly expressed in benchmarks, but it is why so many people are currently switching to Claude as their primary. I think this research project will be announced with Fable 5.5, as part of Anthropic's big media blitz to boost the IPO. One of the things X has taught me is that many people, if they can't see something moving, can't imagine it moving. This causes them to be continuously surprised by developments in this industry, because the frontier is invisible. I think this project has been running autonomously for some time and has made an unknown, and probably significant, number of discoveries, and not only in math. Do not think Anthropic has been sitting idly while OpenAI repeatedly makes these huge science announcements. This is a war. This ETH result was released without any announcement from Anth at all despite its significance, and they only did so to respond to OpenAI's ETH reveal. They posted it late last night without saying anything. It was up for hours before levent even mentioned it. What value has one coin to a dragon who sleeps upon a mountain of them? This makes me think they are sitting on a pile of discoveries, a golden hoard, and they are saving them up for the big IPO shock-and-awe campaign which will soon begin. And when it does, they will announce multiple discoveries across many fields.
    Download
    117981.5K116K
  23. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    At @TerraformIndies we're often asked how, as a tiny start up in California, did we manage to build the cheapest utility scale solar array in North America? I asked @buildmattw to write a post on how he did it.
    355150441K
  24. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    Australian beach conditions at last!
    Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch
    Category 5 (beyond extreme) marine heatwave conditions are being observed offshore San Diego, where water temperatures are up to 77°F. California's severe marine heatwave is also marching north and has now reached Northern California, with water up to 68°F offshore Santa Cruz.
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  25. Colin McCarthy✓@US_Stormwatch
    Category 5 (beyond extreme) marine heatwave conditions are being observed offshore San Diego, where water temperatures are up to 77°F. California's severe marine heatwave is also marching north and has now reached Northern California, with water up to 68°F offshore Santa Cruz.
    Download
    1418391977.8K
  26. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    Colorado should issue currency backed by dinosaur skeletons.
    Rob Petrozzo @robpetrozzo
    Sotheby’s just sold Jodi, a Nanotyrannus (a smallish friend of T-Rex) for: *$47,000,000* High estimate was $9M. 2nd most expensive dinosaur EVER. I really think it’s because A) low estimate was very inviting B) it’s the perfect size at ~20ft This is going in a home, imo
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  27. Rob Petrozzo✓@robpetrozzo
    Sotheby’s just sold Jodi, a Nanotyrannus (a smallish friend of T-Rex) for: *$47,000,000* High estimate was $9M. 2nd most expensive dinosaur EVER. I really think it’s because A) low estimate was very inviting B) it’s the perfect size at ~20ft This is going in a home, imo
    Download
    6226843240K
  28. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    For 50 years Microsoft ran the one to millions, write once, infinite perfect free instant copies playbook better than anyone. They made hundreds of billions while commodifying the hardware (!) and bringing usable computers to billions at a reasonable price. SaaS was but a poor echo of the original idea, that no matter how much software you have you'll always want more, it's impossible to saturate demand, and software is built by thousands of nerds on good salaries in buildings far away. Today people still need operating systems but it's clear where the puck is going. Computers emitting a stream of bits that mutate the world, and in some cases enter our sensory system. Intermediate layers gone, the user relationship disintermediated, growth no longer bottlenecked by a finite number of slow sleepy humans with credit cards requiring aggregators to deliver them to dopamine slop. Demand is saturated, software production has gone vertical, all of Microsoft's in house process power and expertise has been leapfrogged. Microsoft has adapted before and no doubt they will try here but I'm old enough to remember when Microsoft nearly acquired OpenAI during The Blip.
    The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
    BREAKING: Microsoft, $MSFT, is offering buyouts to 60,000 workers as part of the company’s efforts to cut costs amid AI adoption, per Bloomberg. Personnel on select teams in the US, Canada, India, and the UK at a vice president level and below will be eligible. This reflects ~27% of Microsoft's total workforce.
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  29. The Kobeissi Letter✓@KobeissiLetter
    BREAKING: Microsoft, $MSFT, is offering buyouts to 60,000 workers as part of the company’s efforts to cut costs amid AI adoption, per Bloomberg. Personnel on select teams in the US, Canada, India, and the UK at a vice president level and below will be eligible. This reflects ~27% of Microsoft's total workforce.
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  30. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    They're talking.
    MTS @MTSlive
    SITUATION DETECTED: An Anthropic internal model also produced an independent refutation of the Exponential Time Hypothesis, it was discovered on October 16.
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  31. MTS@MTSlive
    SITUATION DETECTED: An Anthropic internal model also produced an independent refutation of the Exponential Time Hypothesis, it was discovered on October 16.
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  32. Casey Handmer✓@CJHandmer
    Excellent!
    Marcus @Owenby
    we did a thing
    22874.9K