@DjsokeSpeaking
pol/elections/econ here, @djneedstosleep with other nonsense
Dj @DjsokeSpeaking10am update! Not home rn, but hope to get Dallas/Bexar (and Harris pls) added when I get back Everyone gained vs 2024 here Still don’t know if rural turnout is backloaded within the day but thus far they’re not outperforming at all
Jon Ralston @RalstonReportsOne of the biggest upsets in Nevada history, a district never held by a Democrat in its 45 years of existence and a Trump+14 district.
Dj @DjsokeSpeaking9am update MontCo doing a bit better now, as you’d expect. Hays >80% 2024 total, Travis almost there Don’t know enough about rural voting patterns to make conclusions there
Politics Watch @politics_watch1Nate Silver’s model projects a D+9 baseline environment in 2028 if Trump’s approval stays the same.
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingNot even gonna bother trying to wait: Here's 4pm! Travis has been outpacing MontCo relative to 2024's eday the latter half of the day, no dent made in the large EV gap Rurals are just sluggish, three hours to go though
Dj @DjsokeSpeaking3pm update, will reply with it updated w/ Dallas and Bexar if/when they post I don't know if these two rural counties are representative but I certainly hope they are
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingDenton Talarico+10 EV Senator Talarico
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingI had hoped Alaska might do a couple interim results updates, but the fact that neither national chamber is close makes that less likely Might just end up having to wait until the 10th
Clay Lewis Jenkins @JudgeClayJOver 43,000 have voted thus far @DallasElections 🗳️🗳️❣️❣️
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingNot to already be looking ahead, but Presley could certainly do it in 2027 if he ran again, right? The underlying environment obviously wasn’t nearly as good in 2023
Clay Lewis Jenkins @JudgeClayJDRUMROLL..... As of 4pm, we've hit over 100k with 107,287 votes cast today! Less than 3 hours until the polls close. If you're in line at 7pm, stay in line!
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingSlow start in TX this morning, I'll add Dallas and Harris when we get the updates from their counties
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingRs got a narrow inflation backlash win in 2024, but the freaks in the Trump 2.0 circle somehow internalized it as having nothing to do with the cost of living, and then decided to make things materially worse for everyone in as many ways as possible
Arlington Elections @ArlingtonVotes9am turnout estimates show 8.12% of Arlington has voted in the election today. Precincts are reporting lines because of the very long ballot. Do your research before stepping into the booth! #ArlingtonVotes #Vote2026
Juan Wulff @juanfwulffElection Day Turnout in Texas is LOW. We are seeing a little signs of an Election Day surge. Election Day votes are only 28% of expected in Travis, 31% in Bexar, 34% in Dallas and 41% in Montgomery. None are reaching our expected remaining ballots. Source @DjsokeSpeaking
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingMississippi looks extremely close to me, I think the needle is again being too kind for Rs
Kaden @Kadennn12321I called Parker county and they have counted 11,887 votes as of 3:55 PM in 2024 they had about 15,400. This is a Trump +67 county.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024CNN exit poll President Trump approval ❌Disapprove 62% ✅Approve 38% (7 points worse than 2018)
Joe Bidenopoulos @james19872002@DjsokeSpeaking What’s your prediction on the final margin
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingNYT published an analysis showing this! Peltola gets a plurality of the decoy’s second choices and even a decent number of Heikes’ Of the Peltola second-rankings, an overwhelming majority go to the decoy
NBC News @NBCNewsBREAKING: Susie Wiles is out as White House chief of staff and will be replaced by Stephen Miller.
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingWhat it’d take on eday for Travis/MontCo to hit 2024’s raw vote total: Travis needs ~138k votes MontCo needs ~117k Around 140% of Travis’ 24 EDay Around 200% of MontCo’s 24 turnout was bad in Travis, though MontCo has grown much more since
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingDid some very quick math and ended up with Peltola at 50.2% of first-round votes But even if she needs an RCV run, she’s getting a plurality of the decoy’s second choices and 19% of Heikes’ non-exhausted ballots
Dj @DjsokeSpeaking2pm update: 5 hours of election day voting remain Election day turnout has been far weaker than I imagined it'd be across the board. I thought almost everyone was going to easily exceed 2024's EDay total (esp the ones who lagged in EV)
Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonniniNo news is good news for Scott Colom. No votes have been reported in 44 minutes, and Mississippi provisionals (called affidavit ballots) have leaned Democratic in the past. It is not guaranteed to repeat this time, but Colom would like to reach them with this narrow lead.
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingOn this note, Ds put up huge turnout advantage in Texas yesterday. We saw it develop over early voting and continue into EDay, but rurals and red exurbs lagged well behind the rest of the state I'd guess turnout alone contributed a ~6-9% swing
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingThe 80.1% of same-time 2024 is for Bell, not Hays, don’t have the hourly 2024 for Hays Sorry for the unintentional Hays slander
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingGave up waiting for Harris: 1pm update! Travis has been gaining on 2024 each update, MontCo lost some more ground there. Travis above 85% of 2024's final turnout now Halfway through, we'll see what the afternoon brings
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingSlow start in TX this morning, I'll add Dallas and Harris when we get the updates from their counties
Isaac Yu @isaacyu_Mayor John Whitmire said he has directed HPD to change policy on ICE interactions following the midterms, reversing a previous statement. "Contact that HPD has, no one has to worry about a warrant search... unless they are being charged with a jailable offense."
Brandon Wu @brandon_wuu@DjsokeSpeaking Any chance you could make a similar chart / analysis for the at-large congressional?
Isaac Yu @isaacyu_Houston controller Chris Hollins calls on city to revisit the HPD-ICE relationship. "Our excuse until now has been that we're doing what Greg Abbott wants because what he says goes. That is no longer the case."
James🗳 @_fat_ugly_rat_The 2028 house elections are gonna be so funny because there's gonna be so many random glup shitto dem incumbents trying to hold R+100000000 seats
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingSo, using the same outstanding estimates as in the Peltola one, this is what happens in the house race For Hill to win, he'd need the outstanding votes to be about 10% better for him than the existing EV/VBM
James🗳 @_fat_ugly_rat_I did a loooot of bitching and complaining about dems choosing South Carolina to come first in the primaries but honestly they completely earned that spot as far as I am concerned lol and I am happy to admit I was wrong!
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingSecond update has it nearly tied
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingHere's the raw total comparison Black voters held up way better than white voters vs 2024 and 2022, but nonwhite turnout broadly did extremely well for a midterm GA's SOS really needs to get on the "voters missing from the file" issue though, 300k is insane!
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingGeorgia's SOS Dashboard updated with election day votes, and EDay was 58.8% White | 24% Black. Much less white than 2022, despite an early vote that was already way less white Final %s: 54.6% Wh | 29.2% Bl - insane to see a midterm be way less white than a presidential
Dr. Annie Andrews @AnnieAndrewsMDIt is upon each one of us to listen, learn and be actively anti-racist. Here are a few suggestions from my learning this past year: Read An American Summer by Alex Kotlowitz Listen to the podcast 1619 by Nikole Hannah-Jones @nhannahjones Watch When They See Us by @ava
Dj @DjsokeSpeakingOH MY GOD PLEASE I NEED THIS
