Marshall Cohen
RT @PatrickSvitek: Someone bet almost $500,000 on Greg Abbott winning reelection, per @MarshallCohen. Analysts say it's the biggest bet on a single candidate in the midterms so far #TXGOV
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Marshall Cohen✓
@MarshallCohen
Senior Reporter for CNN. I cover election integrity, prediction markets and more. I've also covered the DOJ and major legal cases. Go Eagles! 🦅
8.4K Following67.7K Followers29.2K Posts
- 👀 Someone just bet $500,000 on Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to beat Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, per @betint_ai analysis of @Kalshi data. Unclear who placed the bet, but it was an institutional trader. Kalshi odds for Abbott victory currently stand at 68%37197.1K
- The Trump administration sued Utah, asking a federal judge to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction companies. Most of these CFTC lawsuits have been against Democratic states — this one is against a ruby-red, anti-betting state.CFTC @CFTC.@CFTC Sues to Block State Enforcement in Utah Amid Ongoing Efforts to Preserve Jurisdiction:27152.8K
- A federal judge on Monday refused to throw out the insider trading indictment against Gannon Van Dyke, the US solder accused of making $400,000 by betting on Polymarket about Nicolas Maduro's ouster. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty. Trial is slated for December.08203.3K
- Marshall CohenRT @DustinGouker: Breaking: NBA off the sidelines in the prediction markets space, officially.Mike Selig @ChairmanSeligI’m pleased the @CFTC and @NBA have signed an MOU continuing the Commission’s commitment to increasing data sharing between the agency and professional sports leagues. The NBA joins the @MLB and @NHL in taking a responsible step toward protecting sports integrity and market participants from abuses in prediction markets like insider trading and fraud. I thank NBA Commissioner Adam Silver for putting the integrity of professional basketball and America’s financial markets first and for working with the agency on this MOU.030127
I’m pleased the @CFTC and @NBA have signed an MOU continuing the Commission’s commitment to increasing data sharing between the agency and professional sports leagues. The NBA joins the @MLB and @NHL in taking a responsible step toward protecting sports integrity and market participants from abuses in prediction markets like insider trading and fraud. I thank NBA Commissioner Adam Silver for putting the integrity of professional basketball and America’s financial markets first and for working with the agency on this MOU.103424819.3K- Marshall CohenRT @Kellen_Browning: Interesting here that Senator Sullivan is actually giving voters permission to rank the other Dan Sullivan. Comes as Trump admin is arguing the other Sullivan could confuse voters.Dan Sullivan @DanSullivan_AK🎶 Dan S. - or even Dan or Gerry. Just don’t rank Mary!0320166
🎶 Dan S. - or even Dan or Gerry. Just don’t rank Mary!101219979286K- Polymarket's offshore site offered (and later removed) a betting market on whether charges will be filed against the Cornell students accused of rape. At @nextpredictio, I asked @CFTC enforcement director David Miller what regulators were doing about this. Here's his answer.
34136.4K - NEW: There's been over $1.4 billion in trading on prediction markets about the 2026 midterms, according to a new CNN analysis. @Kalshi is nearing $1.1b, @Polymarket is at $340m, @ForecastEx has $6m. This will rise as we reach the finish line06265.5K
- Marshall CohenRT @nextpredictio: Two weeks before the midterms, the national press wanted to understand prediction markets. So they came to the room. Thank you to @CNN's @MarshallCohen for covering NEXTPredict Summit New York, and for his conversation with David Miller, Director of Enforcement at the CFTC, on keeping these markets fair through election night. We’re proud the conversation happened here, and grateful it reached a lot further than Hudson Yards.010150
- I spoke with the CFTC enforcement director and he said his team has already investigated insider trading cases about the 2026 midterms — and to candidates or campaign staff thinking of cashing in before Nov. 3: "we'll come after you" @nextpredictio @CFTC @DavidMillerNYC211315.2K
- At @nextpredictio summit, NCAA official Mark Hicks says "we’re really concerned” that prediction sites are 18+, while most sportsbooks are 21+. He said the NCAA has data showing an uptick in gambling among student athletes, which he called “a very vulnerable population."2192K
- CFTC enforcement chief David Miller told me at @nextpredictio that the agency has scrutinized insider trading cases tied to the 2026 midterms. "We’re watching" and "we’ll come after you" if you're a candidate or campaign staffer doing insider trading.
14173.5K - At @nextpredictio conference, top Polymarket lawyer @livchalos says the company's surveillance hasn't picked up on any efforts by foreign governments to influence prediction markets about the 2026 midterm elections by boosting or tanking certain candidates.21112.1K
- At @nextpredictio conference, top Polymarket lawyer @livchalos says political candidates betting on their own races technically “is not insider trading” — but still violates Polymarket rules, because candidates can manipulate the market by influencing the outcome.34163.8K
- Marshall CohenRT @sam_mcquill: CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller on Polymarket’s Cornell rape case market and the agency’s communications with exchanges about sensitive markets like sports injuries, with CNN’s @MarshallCohen.020140
- Marshall CohenRT @BuchElisabeth: Absolutely PACKED room at the @nextpredictio Summit as @MarshallCohen puts CFTC Director of Enforcement David Miller in the hot seat. From the teleprompter settlement to how the CFTC is monitoring the midterms, no topic is off limits020130
- Marshall Cohen
010134 - I'm at the @nextpredictio prediction market conference today in NYC. In a few minutes, I'm interviewing David Miller, director of enforcement at the @CFTC, the federal agency that polices the prediction industry. Tune in!12141.9K
- Kalshi told federal regulators it's putting up betting markets on the admissions rate at top colleges, including @Princeton, @Stanford, @Penn, @DukeU, @UCLA, @WashU and others. This creates new insider trading risks at all these schools. (h/t @DustinGouker)1957966212K
- Posts @MarshallCohenMore schools where Kalshi plans to offer betting markets on admission rates: @NorthwesternU, @NotreDame, @UCBerkeley, @VanderbiltU, @RiceUniversity, @BrownUniversity, @Cornell, @CarnegieMellon, @dartmouth, @MIT, @Harvard, @Yale, @Caltech, @JohnsHopkins, @Columbia, @UChicago.10178.5K
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