Max Colchester

RT @Steven_Swinford: The extraordinary rise in welfare spending continues It is going to rise by £19billon this year (5.7 per cent) to £353billion, equivalent to ***11.1%*** of GDP, reaching 12.3% in 2031 It is being driven by a rise in health and mentions benefit spending

RT @EdConwaySky: NEW On the basis of the numbers the Chancellor just read out in the House, the UK is set to borrow MORE in each of the next five years than previously planned

RT @danbloom1: GDP growth (forecast as of March 2026 in brackets) 2026: 1.2% (1.1%) 2027: 1.0% (1.6%) 2028: 1.6% (1.6%) 2029: 1.8% (1.5%) 2030: 1.7% (1.5%) 2031: 1.6%

RT @Frencheconomics: If this deficit profile survives next year’s Spending Review, AND the 2024 manifesto tax pledges aren’t broken, then the UK government will deserve a lot of credit.

Second, something way too often missed by commentators: the UK is doing more than anyone else in G7 to strengthen our public finances. We are delivering the fastest fiscal consolidation in the G7 and forecast to have the smallest deficit in 2031

RT @HugoGye: Grim!

RT @davidluhnow: More than one in every 10 people in the UK claim sickness or disability welfare. Here's our deep-dive, with @MaximColch, into part of Britain's welfare state that's started to spiral out of control, threatening the country's finances. via @WSJ

Some 10% of Britain’s population is on at least one sickness and disability benefit. The bill is on track to hit £130 billion by 2030. It’s a scandal that is hamstringing politicians and inching the U.K. toward a fiscal reckoning. W/ @davidluhnow

Man City's financial doping ripples to Burnham - who riffs on his persona as an everyday football fan - but is now trapped between a major UK investor and defending the integrity of the Premier League, a key export.

RT @rachaelmbade: This just might be the most bonkers political story I have read in my entire life

RT @davidluhnow: The incident at RAF Fairford showed how difficult it is for the UK, and the U.S., to protect air bases from new forms of attack like drones. Good explainer here from @MaximColch via @WSJ

RT @yarotrof: Europe’s biggest spy scandal of the century has just broken out.

Police have arrested the former head of Germany's BND foreign intelligence agency on suspicion of espionage. August Hanning served as the agency's chief from December 1998 to November 2005, before moving to the Federal Interior Ministry.

Inside France's fiscal time bomb. "We need shock therapy." Good piece by @SMeichtry @chelseydulaney

RT @shelbyholliday: New: Urgent concerns about a complex drone attack ordered by Iran’s IRGC prompted the U.S. to move B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford. The drones were part of a multifaceted plot to target the aircraft and kill American pilots, per officials: via @WSJ

RT @TomHCalver: In fact, if we add in the minimum auto-enrolment employee contribution, the international tax league table looks very different. Suddenly, on payroll taxes alone, the UK looks like a high tax country. We could go further, as the @CPSThinkTank has done: add in student loan payments and care fees, and Britain's tax take looks positively Scandinavian... 4/6

RT @shelbyholliday: New: The B-1 bombers were moved from RAF Fairford due to security concerns over suspected terror plots against the facility, American officials said Sunday.

U.S. abruptly pulls all B-1 bombers from Fairford due to concerns about security following a suspected Iranian plot against the RAF base, officials say. Major shift in strategy for the U.S. which used the base as a launch pad against Iran.

RT @faisalislam: NEW Astonishing growth of Chinese car market share in the UK, revealed in just released SMMT figures, albeit it should not be surprising, as I wrote three years ago. Just under 1 in 4 cars sold in the key month in September are Chinese brands/ built, just under 1 in 5 year to date, with Jaecoo 7 selling nearly 11k, top monthly seller (for second time after March and no 2 Year to date). In a market that is overall up 10% YTD and 12% in September vs last year, Chinese market share is up over 100% to 18%, 319k (YTD) and 24%, 84k (Sept alone). NB - am counting MG, BYD, Denza, Jaecoo, Chery, Omoda, Polestar, Smart, Lepas, Geely, Leapmotor, Changan, Xpeng, Aion, GWM, Skywell, Maxus.

Andy Burnham and the unapologetic socialist makeover of Britain. What happens when the "Burnham bounce" collides with fiscal reality? A few thoughts on Liverpool:

“U.S. officials were aware of an Iran-linked plot to attack bombers at Fairford and kill personnel at the base.”

RT @FraserNelson: What was once called the “moron premium” - the excess of UK borrowing rates over other major economics, a reflection of confidence - has hit a new high this morning.