wild
$STX double beat, raise guidance... massive after hours sell off
The Transcript @TheTranscript_Seagate CEO: "...another quarter of record profitability and our highest ever free cash flow in the September quarter" $STX: -8% AH
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Random Walk✓
@MosesSternstein
Idea Alpha https://t.co/l3xJa5ebPY Making capital markets interesting again Wide but not deep, but still deeper than most.
1.8K Following3.4K Followers17K Posts
Seagate CEO: "...another quarter of record profitability and our highest ever free cash flow in the September quarter" $STX: -8% AH
54306.8K- Random WalkRT @jbahrdestefano: huge insurtech m&a deal @Guidewire_PandC signed a deal to acquire @hxtweets (hyperexponential) for $1.7B in cash + up to $400M more tied to recurring rev targets hyperexponential builds AI-native UWing + pricing software for commercial P&C insurers, reinsurers & MGAs. hx powers UWing decisions across $75B+ in annual commercial premium (up from $45B a year earlier) w/ customers like Aviva, Allianz, + Beazley some math / estimates from the filing: > Guidewire ended FY26 w/ $1.24B in ARR & says hx adds 650+ bps to FY27 ARR growth, implying hx brings $80M+ in ARR > that's at most ~21x ARR on the $1.7B base > hx only raised ~$91M - at median Series B dilution then (~16.5%), its $73M B in '24 would've priced ~$440M post, so roughly a 4x step-up in < 3yrs by far Guidewire's largest deal ever, its prior biggest was Cyence for ~$260M in '17 Guidewire cofounder Marcus Ryu led hx's $73M Series B at Battery & joined its board expected to close in Guidewire's fiscal Q2 '2701015
- Paging Dr. BaumolsThe Wall Street Journal @WSJOpera is a pricey endeavor, and organizations around the country are struggling to cover the costs. 🔗000185
Opera is a pricey endeavor, and organizations around the country are struggling to cover the costs. 🔗
251035.4K- Random WalkRT @MosesSternstein: Goldman's "10,000 small businesses" program shows *very high* adoption (86%, of which 84% are paid), but also . . . less slop usage0102.4K
- Boomers+ dialing back on discretionary spend? since the end of last year, old folks have grown their discretionary spending *less* than everyone else
002239 - wutCohere @cohereWhile evaluating Qwen3.8-Flash-Next in a controlled sandbox environment, Cohere's research team observed something unexpected. Asked to generate a defensive cybersecurity detection rule, the model instead inventoried aspects of the machine it was running on and attempted to upload a probe file to an Alibaba Cloud storage bucket in Beijing. Notably, the model's reasoning trace stated that it would not invoke any tools before taking these actions. Cohere's sandbox blocked the attempt, and no external communication succeeded. We have not determined the root cause, and we are not asserting malicious intent. But the incident raises important questions for organizations deploying agentic AI systems: Can models take actions that differ from their stated reasoning, and how should security teams evaluate trust, provenance, and behavior in open-weight models? We are publishing our findings because organizations making model adoption decisions deserve as much information as possible. We hope this contributes to greater transparency, stronger security practices, and continued collaboration across the AI ecosystem. Read the full report:000319
While evaluating Qwen3.8-Flash-Next in a controlled sandbox environment, Cohere's research team observed something unexpected. Asked to generate a defensive cybersecurity detection rule, the model instead inventoried aspects of the machine it was running on and attempted to upload a probe file to an Alibaba Cloud storage bucket in Beijing. Notably, the model's reasoning trace stated that it would not invoke any tools before taking these actions. Cohere's sandbox blocked the attempt, and no external communication succeeded. We have not determined the root cause, and we are not asserting malicious intent. But the incident raises important questions for organizations deploying agentic AI systems: Can models take actions that differ from their stated reasoning, and how should security teams evaluate trust, provenance, and behavior in open-weight models? We are publishing our findings because organizations making model adoption decisions deserve as much information as possible. We hope this contributes to greater transparency, stronger security practices, and continued collaboration across the AI ecosystem. Read the full report:9591.3K10.9K2.9M- a lot more code, but it's not clear that it's being used --the number of weekly new/updated packages spiked, while the number of packages with 5k+ downloads continues on-trend (ignoring the reporting change)
010201 - learn to . . . blow things up? working with explosives pays pretty well in NC and NY it's also one of the youngest of the skilled-trades with ~70% aged 34 or younger
001238 - Random WalkRT @MosesSternstein: @TheStalwart right, but they may have been overweight to bolsonaro even with a corruption premium (which may reflect how brazen a steal it might be)...again, idk, but it wasn't just prediction markets caught offsides010363
- related: just another reminder of who is crowding out whom
Random Walk @MosesSternsteinspoke to a credit pm and the tl;dr is just "we're selling bc with so much supply coming online...where does demand come from"024397 - spoke to a credit pm and the tl;dr is just "we're selling bc with so much supply coming online...where does demand come from"010668
- lol, ok, "Bloomberg"Bloomberg @businessPresident Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva came from behind to win Brazil’s runoff election, halting a right-wing wave sweeping Latin America and defying predictions that the 80-year-old political veteran had finally reached the end of his extraordinary career.008614
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva came from behind to win Brazil’s runoff election, halting a right-wing wave sweeping Latin America and defying predictions that the 80-year-old political veteran had finally reached the end of his extraordinary career.3941.6K6.2K500K- Random WalkRT @DualityResearch: My friend @MosesSternstein is creating some 🔥 charts that are making the rounds and might even help put a bottom in the AI trade 😅 Make sure to give him a follow!a16z @a16zGPUs are aging like fine wine, with rental rates up across the board since January 1st Approximate change YTD: - H200: +160% - B200: +120% - RTX PRO 6000: +65% - H100: +35% Even the 6-year-old A100 rents for more than it did at the start of the year Charts of the Week:03016
a16z@a16zGPUs are aging like fine wine, with rental rates up across the board since January 1st Approximate change YTD: - H200: +160% - B200: +120% - RTX PRO 6000: +65% - H100: +35% Even the 6-year-old A100 rents for more than it did at the start of the year Charts of the Week:
1363732.3K948K- Random WalkRT @NVIDIAAIInfra: Good data showing that NVIDIA AI infrastructure is a durable, investable asset that retains value. New applications and workloads keep landing on our fungible platform, increasing demand because of its productivity. Chart by @a16za16z @a16zGPUs are aging like fine wine, with rental rates up across the board since January 1st Approximate change YTD: - H200: +160% - B200: +120% - RTX PRO 6000: +65% - H100: +35% Even the 6-year-old A100 rents for more than it did at the start of the year Charts of the Week:0215018
- Random WalkRT @MosesSternstein: capex all the way down ~80% of '27 EPS growth is expected from tech, of which ~63% is semis, etc.010531
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