@RyanWeather
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Hodhodata@statistics @Statisticizer❄️🌀🌎 Early November 2026 — Stratospheric Warming Signal Early-November Polar Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Signal | 3–10 November 2026 The latest structural-analog analysis is showing a notable increase in the likelihood of a possible early-November sudden stratospheric warming episode during 3–10 November 2026, with the signal particularly pronounced across the Eurasian and North American sectors. This early November SSW had also oddly materialized in November 2025, which is considered a rare event . The forecast is based on 20 candidate structural analogs for November 2026, with the resulting pattern remaining robust after resampling across 10 independent random-season ensembles. The 10-hPa temperature composite shows a pronounced positive temperature anomaly across the Arctic/polar stratosphere, with the strongest warming extending through the Eurasian and North American sectors. The accompanying 100-hPa vector-wind composite also indicates a highly disturbed circulation pattern around the polar region, providing additional evidence of an anomalous large-scale dynamical configuration during the same period. ⚠️ Important: This is not a confirmation of an SSW event. At this stage, it represents an analog-based probabilistic signal. Confirmation would require the dynamical evolution to produce the characteristic weakening and/or reversal of the 10-hPa polar-night jet, particularly in the zonal-mean winds near 60°N. The next level of verification is therefore to examine the 10-, 30-, 50-, and 100-hPa circulation structure, including the evolution of the polar vortex and the potential role of upward-propagating planetary wave-1 and wave-2 activity. If the temperature and wind signals remain dynamically coherent as we approach November, the case for an early-November stratospheric disruption becomes considerably stronger. 🔹 Forecast window: 3–10 November 2026 🔹 Method: Structural Analog Modeling + Random-Season Resampling 🔹 Candidate analogs: 20 🔹 Validation: 10 independent random-season ensembles 🔹 Primary diagnostic: 10-hPa polar temperature 🔹 Dynamical support: 100-hPa vector-wind structure See the previous forecast for Nov SSW signal found from June in the comments please . Statistical Model by @Statisticizer 🔋Powered by Aviatech Jordan & UAE-Dubai — Poultry Farm Equipment & Integrated Farming Solutions Aviatech Jordan
Paul Roundy @PaulRoundy1It's obvious that this whole El Niño event traces profoundly back to the collosal April westerly wind event. But also look at the right panel, it is obvious that the event is also depleting Pacific warm water volume, with integrated Pacific wide volume of water above the 20C isotherm has been declining since April. Although some of that excess heat went directly to space, much of it was transferred as sensible and latent heat into the atmosphere, which will be impacting weather outcomes over the next several months. The event will almost certainly lead to a period of heat deficit (relative to the long term trend line) in the climate system. It is interesting that the warmest naturally achieved heat signals reflect times with the earth is actually cooling.
