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RT @ZacharyDonnini: Indiana and Kentucky Election Night Preview (6pm, 7pm polls close) Indiana and Kentucky are the first states in the country to begin closing their polls and reporting results. Only the portions in the Eastern time zone close at 6 p.m. Eastern, though those areas include most of the population in both states. IN-05 and KY-06, the most competitive U.S. House districts in the two states, both close at 6 p.m. A Democratic win in either seat would signal a very strong night for the party. But be cautious: initial returns will likely be bluer than the final vote, making early Democratic gains look larger than they ultimately are. Florida will likely report results faster than Indiana and Kentucky, so by the time we have complete county results in their key races, we may already have a much clearer picture from Florida. Operations Indiana: Early votes usually report first, then more Republican Election Day ballots. The first hour may be mostly early-vote drops (so comparing to final 2024 results is not a good idea and will give you an inflated view of Democratic gains), so consider that margins will change as Election Day votes are reported. Later-counted ballots after Election Night may lean Democratic. Kentucky: Very small initial drops (<10% of the vote) may be mostly mail votes, and early in-person votes follow or come first in most places. More Republican Election Day ballots, about 70% of the vote, will generally be reported last. Expect early Democratic strength to fade as this happens. Most counting should finish by 10 p.m. ET. Key races IN-05: Victoria Spartz (R) faces J. D. Ford (D) in a district based in the Indianapolis suburbs. The district was Trump+17.1 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Likely Republican, favoring Spartz to win by 8.7 points. The Hamilton County early vote drop in IN-05 during the final quarter of the first hour was the first sign that Trump was set to perform well in 2024, as he beat my benchmark for a “good” night by 4 points. Democrats would love to see Ford win that first drop by double digits, compared with the Spartz+3.5 drop we got in 2024. KY-06: Ralph Alvarado (R) faces Zach Dembo (D) in a district around the Lexington area in eastern Kentucky. Trump won this district by 15 points in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Republican, favoring Alvarado to win by 2 points. It is an early litmus test of how deep Democrats can reach into seats Trump won by double digits. Indiana Secretary of State: Republican Max Engling faces Democrat Beau Bayh in the open-seat race to succeed Republican Diego Morales. We expect this race to be competitive, even though Trump won the state by 19 points. Kentucky Senate: Andy Barr (R) faces Charles Booker (D). Kentucky was Trump+30.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Solid Republican, favoring Barr to win by 19.1 points.

Widespread precipitation is forecast for Election Day, with the heaviest activity centered over the Ozarks and rain extending across portions of the Great Plains, Midwest, and Texas.

NEW — At a rally with Vice President JD Vance in Weatherford, TX, state Comptroller Don Huffines (R) says of early voting turnout: “It’s not going well. It’s ugly right now.”

NEWS — Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs says a preliminary review found “many” U.S. citizens among the Justice Department’s list of 405 alleged noncitizens registered to vote. Hobbs called the list unreliable.

Georgia Early Vote Tracking 🍑 As of Oct. 29, 2026 Total early votes: 2,258,400 (+175,559) 57.0% of projected final turnout. Modeled 2026 Vote: 🔵 Jon Ossoff: 53.3% - 61.5% 🔴 Mike Collins: 38.5% - 46.7% Remaining votes in Georgia will be more Republican. We rate this race as Solid D.

NEW — Rep. Don Davis’ (D-NC) reelection race against Republican Laurie Buckhout has drawn $52.9 million in ad spending and reservations, making it the most expensive U.S. House general election on record, according to AdImpact.

North Carolina Early Vote Tracking 🌲 As of Oct. 29, 2026 Total early votes: 2,094,293 (+182,361) 52.2% of projected final turnout. Modeled 2026 Vote: 🔵 Roy Cooper: 54.9% - 64.5% 🔴 Michael Whatley : 33.5% - 43.1% Remaining votes in NC will be more Republican. We rate this race as Solid D.

RT @ZacharyDonnini: North Carolina Early Voting, Day 14: Wednesday's new ballots: 🔵 Democratic: 64,319 (34.1%) 🔴 Republican: 56,655 (30.0%) ⚪ Unaffiliated: 67,211 (35.6%) Daily margin: D+4.1 Cumulative margin: D+14.6 Republicans hope to win their first day of early voting today.

RT @ZacharyDonnini: Florida Early Voting | Day 10 🔴 Republicans: 972,753 🔵 Democrats: 788,137 ⚪ Other/NPA: 449,703 Cumulative GOP Margin 2024: R+23.7 2026: R+8.4 Shift Toward Democrats vs. 2024 Day 1: D+24.4 Day 3: D+22.4 Day 5: D+19.0 Day 7: D+18.4 Day 9: D+16.3 Day 10: D+15.3

NEWS — Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) ordered a state investigation into whether Mary Peltola’s campaign helped recruit a second Dan Sullivan to confuse voters in the Senate race.

NEWS — A federal judge has allowed Mary Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC to intervene in the Justice Department’s Alaska Senate lawsuit, which seeks to block certification if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, per the Washington Sun.

NEWS — Judge David Carter rejected the DOJ’s request to force California to set aside mail ballots from roughly 20,000 people the Trump administration claims are not U.S. citizens, per CBS News.

6 days to go.

RT @ZacharyDonnini: Michigan Election Night Preview (8pm, 9pm polls close) Operations Michigan counts votes very slowly. Fewer than half of all votes may be reported by midnight, and a substantial number may still be outstanding at 3 a.m. Detroit often does not finish their Election Night reporting until around 9 a.m., and that doesn't even include ballots counted after Election Night in the trail period. Absentee ballots and votes from more Democratic-leaning areas often are counted last, making results in the early morning look more Republican than the final outcome. It’s crucial to keep this Republican mirage in mind during the early morning hours. Even if El-Sayed trails by 2–3 points at 3 a.m., he could still be favored to win, depending on where the remaining votes are coming from. If they are concentrated in areas that historically report after 3 a.m. as we expect, he would be favored to make up about 3 points. Democratic areas in Wayne, Ingham, Saginaw, Kalamazoo, and Washtenaw counties, along with Flint, often report last. Even at 6 a.m., votes from Detroit and other late-reporting areas could still be outstanding and help El-Sayed gain ground. Key races Michigan Senate: Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring El-Sayed to win by 3.3 points. El-Sayed, a progressive, defeated Haley Stevens in a contentious primary. Rogers, a former representative, narrowly lost to Elissa Slotkin in 2024, even as Trump won the state. Michigan Governor: Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Likely Democratic, favoring Benson to win by 8.6 points. Benson is favored to succeed Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, as Democrats expect the blue environment to help them hang on to the governor’s mansion in a state Trump won. James, a current representative, lost two statewide races in 2018 and 2020 and is hoping for a better result on his third try. MI-04: Bill Huizenga (R) faces Sean McCann (D). The district was Trump+5.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Republican, favoring Huizenga to win by 2.2 points. Huizenga has historically been a strong candidate, running more than 6 points ahead of Trump in 2024. However, he faces a challenge in this western Michigan district, which includes Kalamazoo and is likely to vote for Benson at the top of the ticket. He will likely need to outrun James to keep his seat. MI-07: William Lawrence (D) faces Tom Barrett (R). The district was Trump+1.3 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Democratic, favoring Lawrence to win by 2 points. In this district centered on Lansing and the surrounding area, Republican incumbent Tom Barrett is hoping to hold on even as Benson is heavily favored to win it at the top of the ticket. He is hoping that progressive insurgent William Lawrence will prove weak electorally, giving him an opening to win over swing voters. Lawrence, and national progressives, are hoping that a resounding victory in the seat will prove progressives can flip seats from red to blue and run close to the top of the ballot while doing it. MI-10: Christina Hines (D) faces Mike Bouchard Jr. (R). The district was Trump+6.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring Hines to win by 2.8 points. Hines is hoping to flip this open seat centered on Macomb County, a working-class suburban area outside Detroit. Our forecast currently has both Benson and Rogers winning the district, meaning the House race may come down to candidate quality.

Per Fox News, federal prosecutors are reportedly conducting a criminal investigation into how a second candidate named Dan Sullivan qualified for Alaska's Senate ballot, following allegations that Democrats recruited spoiler candidates to draw votes from the GOP incumbent.

RT @ZacharyDonnini: Yesterday was the most red day of early voting in Texas so far. Republicans will be hoping that trend continues through the end of the week, which would run counter to historical voting patterns. 2024 Electorate by Day 10/19: Trump+3.4 10/19: Trump +8.2 10/21: Trump+10.3 10/22: Trump+11.9 10/23: Trump+11.2 10/24: Trump+5.4 10/25: Trump+4.2 10/26: Trump+11.9 10/27: Trump+13.1

Texas Early Vote Tracking: Day 9 As of Oct. 28, 2026 Total votes: 5,468,144 (+550,301) 56.3% of projected final turnout. Modeled 2026 Vote: 🔵 James Talarico: 45.1% - 54.7% 🔴 Ken Paxton: 43.1% - 52.7% VoteHub currently rates the race as Tilt D.

NEWS - Pres. Trump has called on Alaska to exclude Mary Peltola and Daniel J. Sullivan from the general election ballot, alleging fraud. Absentee ballots have been sent out and early voting began last week.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) accuses Mary Peltola’s campaign of a “cover-up” following reports that it and the DSCC recruited Daniel J. Sullivan. “What has been revealed is a pattern of lies and coverups,” Murkowski said. Source: Alaska Landmine