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Warren Pies
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Warren Pies✓

@WarrenPies

Founder @3F_Research | PM $RAA | $FCTE | Formerly with Ned Davis Research | Recovering Attorney (step 4) - Not investment advice

1.9K Following80.3K Followers10.6K Posts
  1. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Historically, during soft landings, the S&P 500 rips in 6 months leading into a first Fed cut. Would put the market at 5,200 by May... First time speaking w/ the great @ScottWapnerCNBC was a blast!
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    CNBC's Closing Bell @CNBCClosingBell
    "Our first [rate] cut [forecast] is for May," says @3f_research's @warrenpies
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  3. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Warren Pies
    RT @Chartfest1: Good stat
    Warren Pies @WarrenPies
    Post-midterms, the question is whether the bull market can continue without semis participating. This year owning the S&P 500 on days the semi industry is positive has produced a 70% gain. Semi down days SP500 has lost 34%. No industry has dictated index performance this much.
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  4. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Post-midterms, the question is whether the bull market can continue without semis participating. This year owning the S&P 500 on days the semi industry is positive has produced a 70% gain. Semi down days SP500 has lost 34%. No industry has dictated index performance this much.
    Download
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  5. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Posts @WarrenPies
    I'll say it again, midterm seasonality is not a strong enough argument to offset the obliteration of an undisputed market leader.
    Warren Pies @WarrenPies
    Ignore the consensus opinion on midterm seasonality for now. “Bluenami” is not an immediate buy. Excerpt from 10/26 @3F_Research report…
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  6. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Ignore the consensus opinion on midterm seasonality for now. “Bluenami” is not an immediate buy. Excerpt from 10/26 @3F_Research report…
    Download
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  8. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Warren Pies
    RT @fejau_inc: 👇
    Warren Pies @WarrenPies
    Enjoyed the conversation. Of note, we discuss why a "bluenami" is positive for hyperscalers (once the dust settles).
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  9. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Enjoyed the conversation. Of note, we discuss why a "bluenami" is positive for hyperscalers (once the dust settles).
    fejau @fejau_inc
    New episode recorded yesterday with @WarrenPies ! His base case was a blue tsunami so this conversation aged very well. Enjoy
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  10. fejau✓@fejau_inc
    New episode recorded yesterday with @WarrenPies ! His base case was a blue tsunami so this conversation aged very well. Enjoy
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  11. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Warren Pies
    RT @stevehou: Great call! "Blue tsunami may signal that Tech is being served up as the sacrificial scapegoat."
    Warren Pies @WarrenPies
    Ignore the consensus opinion on midterm seasonality for now. “Bluenami” is not an immediate buy. Excerpt from 10/26 @3F_Research report…
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  12. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Warren Pies
    RT @MarkHalperin: It is far too soon to reach any definitive conclusions about where things will end up. But based on the totality of what I know right now, my sources in both parties believe the two most likely overall results are Blue tsunami and giant Blue wave. Based on the voting so far, the odds of a Democratic Senate are higher than I had them ten hours ago. Watch closely Texas and Ohio. DEVELOPING…
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  13. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Despite the (deserved) nervousness in the market, the S&P 500's three-month trading range has compressed to ~3.5% (closing basis - historic average range ~10%). This is below the 1st percentile historically (i.e. extremely narrow range).
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  14. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Warren Pies
    RT @mark_biller: Great balanced overview of where things stand after a nerve-wracking end of the week
    Warren Pies @WarrenPies
    Enjoyed chatting after the close with @michaelsantoli and @MelissaLeeCNBC on @CNBCOvertime Discussing why we cut risk early this week, and what we are looking for to add exposure back.
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  16. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Warren Pies
    RT @JPCote60: If you not already follow him just do it!
    Warren Pies @WarrenPies
    Enjoyed chatting after the close with @michaelsantoli and @MelissaLeeCNBC on @CNBCOvertime Discussing why we cut risk early this week, and what we are looking for to add exposure back.
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  18. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Posts @WarrenPies
    Some visuals for the conversation...
    Warren Pies @WarrenPies
    Three things I don't love about the current market set up: 1) Hyperscaler credit spreads have broken above their July (Leopold Liquidation) wides (chart below). 2) Index momentum has stalled and entered a consolidation. 3) Financials/Staples ratio falling apart.
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  19. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Three things I don't love about the current market set up: 1) Hyperscaler credit spreads have broken above their July (Leopold Liquidation) wides (chart below). 2) Index momentum has stalled and entered a consolidation. 3) Financials/Staples ratio falling apart.
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  20. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Over the past month, the 10y has become much more correlated to the Nasdaq than oil. This is a more risky regime...If the Fed decides that it must slow AI to calm inflation, then there is no easy "supply side" end to the tightening cycle.
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  21. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Warren Pies
    RT @3F_Research: New report out to 3FR clients. Examining: -Why we reduced equity exposure this week. -How to resolve bearish technicals and bullish fundamentals. -Why tech's relationship with the inflation story has become a macro risk.
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  22. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    FED Based on SOFR, the Fed's focus has gone from oil to QQQ...The risk is Warsh hinting that the current AI credit wobble is not sufficient to slow the cycle.
    Warren Pies @WarrenPies
    So far, yields have fallen when tech weakens (Fed hikes priced out). This allows for defensives/non-AI basket to rally (broadening) and translates into S&P 500 chop. One negative way this all breaks is if the Fed signals that nasdaq weakness is not enough to stop the tightening and that they need to see the data improve before they relent. That type of signal would break the negative nasdaq/yield connection in an uncomfortable direction. 2018ish type of environment.
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  23. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Posts @WarrenPies
    So far, yields have fallen when tech weakens (Fed hikes priced out). This allows for defensives/non-AI basket to rally (broadening) and translates into S&P 500 chop. One negative way this all breaks is if the Fed signals that nasdaq weakness is not enough to stop the tightening and that they need to see the data improve before they relent. That type of signal would break the negative nasdaq/yield connection in an uncomfortable direction. 2018ish type of environment.
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  24. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    According to @silicondata the compute curve moved into contango. Looking at it from a traditional commodity perspective, contango *should* reflect negative market fundamentals. In this case, however, longer-dated contracts rose faster but in parallel with spot. This pattern is unheard of in other commodities - like oil - and reflects a scramble to lock-up compute.
    Warren Pies @WarrenPies
    I think it is a different market. A back-led rally indicates confidence and structural tightness. This type of move is virtually nonexistent in oil (as an example). In oil all major changes in term structure occur bc of near-dated volatility (ie contango happens bc of selloff in front of curve in n response to oversupply to open storage economics).
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  25. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Posts @VKMacro
    I think it is a different market. A back-led rally indicates confidence and structural tightness. This type of move is virtually nonexistent in oil (as an example). In oil all major changes in term structure occur bc of near-dated volatility (ie contango happens bc of selloff in front of curve in n response to oversupply to open storage economics).
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  26. Warren Pies✓@WarrenPies
    Posts @WarrenPies
    It's worth noting how this new market seems to be developing: GPU availability drops --> spot rents rise --> longer-dated contracts reset higher. Below is an excerpt from our 10/15 client report discussing some of these dynamics.
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