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Ben Southwood
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Ben Southwood✓

@bswud

Founder & editor, https://t.co/AdNuyGzjaT @stripe. Fellow, @createstreets. Board, @sci_works. Advisory board, @FixBritain_.

743 Following23.7K Followers29.6K Posts
  1. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    It's very possible to run effective nationalised railways, but my worry all along has been that we will end up starving them of investment by putting every last penny into freezing fares.
    Politics UK @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: People with ADHD can now get a third off train tickets under Government changes to the disabled railcard to include people with neurodivergence
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  2. Politics UK✓@PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: People with ADHD can now get a third off train tickets under Government changes to the disabled railcard to include people with neurodivergence
    68456314.3K2.6M
  3. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    Ben Southwood
    RT @lugaricano: The UK has the deepest capital market in Europe and several of the world's top universities. Its governments make it ever more difficult to build anything. We at @LSEPublicPolicy and @LSELaw are co-organizing an event with Works in Progress on how to get Britain to grow again.
    Sam Bowman @s8mb
    Join Works in Progress at Building Abundance: How Britain can flourish in the age of AI, a day of ideas for rebuilding Britain’s economy and state so it can adapt to and embrace artificial intelligence and other opportunities for growth. Sessions include: - @Dominic2306 and Morgan McSweeney in conversation on the decline and fall of British state capacity, - @JohnFingleton1 on the Nuclear Taskforce and its implementation by the government, one year on from its pledge to implement it in full. - @bswud, @SCP_Hughes and me on why nearly every attempt to get Britain building has failed; - @rachelwolf on what the public really thinks about economic growth and AI; - @lugaricano on messy jobs and Britain’s labour market; - @jujulemons on why Britain needs gigawatt-scale compute, and how to get it built here; - @salonium on why fixing clinical trials is the best industrial policy Britain could have; - @MichaelDnes1 on building the first new tunnel under the Pennines since 1954; - @RobertBoswall on how to finance and power the data centre buildout; and - @daisychristo on why VAR matters for state capacity. ​It will be held on Thursday 3rd December at the LSE, from 1pm to 7:30pm (doors open 1pm for a 1:20pm start). We're hosting it in association with the LSE Law School and School of Public Policy. Tickets are free. See you there!
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  5. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    Ben Southwood
    RT @ethtwit: great read in this edition of @WorksInProgMag about the hyper-capitalist chinese meritocracy that turns their government officials into mega growth giga chads
    01022
  6. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    Ben Southwood
    RT @s8mb: Join Works in Progress at Building Abundance: How Britain can flourish in the age of AI, a day of ideas for rebuilding Britain’s economy and state so it can adapt to and embrace artificial intelligence and other opportunities for growth. Sessions include: - @Dominic2306 and Morgan McSweeney in conversation on the decline and fall of British state capacity, - @JohnFingleton1 on the Nuclear Taskforce and its implementation by the government, one year on from its pledge to implement it in full. - @bswud, @SCP_Hughes and me on why nearly every attempt to get Britain building has failed; - @rachelwolf on what the public really thinks about economic growth and AI; - @lugaricano on messy jobs and Britain’s labour market; - @jujulemons on why Britain needs gigawatt-scale compute, and how to get it built here; - @salonium on why fixing clinical trials is the best industrial policy Britain could have; - @MichaelDnes1 on building the first new tunnel under the Pennines since 1954; - @RobertBoswall on how to finance and power the data centre buildout; and - @daisychristo on why VAR matters for state capacity. ​It will be held on Thursday 3rd December at the LSE, from 1pm to 7:30pm (doors open 1pm for a 1:20pm start). We're hosting it in association with the LSE Law School and School of Public Policy. Tickets are free. See you there!
    039013
  7. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    Ben Southwood
    RT @sci_works: We have a new Data Centre Covenant. But, until now, there was no detailed overview of what data centre capacity the UK plans to build: how much, where, and when? What signals are there about demand for UK compute? Our new report has the answers – which may surprise you! 🧵👇
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  8. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    Ben Southwood
    RT @s8mb: This is good from the Chair of Shelter: "Every tenant is now incentivised to challenge any rent increase because they could get a significant rent reduction and not just a rent freeze."
    08021
  9. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    Ben Southwood
    RT @Hrushworth: All of these could have been built in London already, if we put investment before fare freezes.
    Standard News @standardnews
    All the London transport projects that will be unlocked by new powers for Sadiq Khan in the Budget
    04030
  10. Standard News@standardnews
    All the London transport projects that will be unlocked by new powers for Sadiq Khan in the Budget
    Download
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  11. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    UKIP South Thanet's Twitter spokesperson was ridiculed in 2014 for thinking that Westminster Cathedral was a mosque, but I actually think it shows a fairly subtle and impressive understanding of architectural parallels. The building it looks most like is the Hagia Sophia, which of course is both the world's most famous church, and a Byzantine church, which Westminster Cathedral is clearly drawing on.
    Download
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  12. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    One thing I've changed my mind a lot on recently is buying houses. I previously considered buying houses to be undiversified speculation and thus crazy: why put so much money into a single property in a single place when you could spread it out over all the stocks in the land, I thought. Now, I consider not buying a single house to be more speculative. I am structurally short housing, because I am always going to want to consume some at any given time in the future. If I own approximately as much housing as I want to consume them I am neutral on housing; if I own more, then I am long; if I own less, then I am short. Shorting housing seems riskier to me than being neutral on it. In fact, since I probably want to consume more housing in the future when I'm hopefully richer, I should probably even go long. If housing falls in price then what I lose in investment I gain in housing consumption, whereas if housing *rises* in price and I don't own any then I am doubly hit!
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  15. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    Important lesson here, which is that the price system itself comes under pressure during inflation. A significant portion of people will always see inflation as a kind of theft from them, and they won't just sit back and take it!
    Luke Tryl @LukeTryl
    And yet landlords are so seen to have broken their side of the bargain in the social contract the public are very happy to see them hit more - see also water companies.
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  16. Luke Tryl✓@LukeTryl
    And yet landlords are so seen to have broken their side of the bargain in the social contract the public are very happy to see them hit more - see also water companies.
    402328028.6K
  17. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    This is bonkers. The gas grid costs an amount to upkeep approximately proportional to the size of each person’s hookup, the most logical way to pay for which is through some sort of charge reflecting that. The price system is collapsing around our ears!
    Martin Lewis @MartinSLewis
    CONFIRMED. Gas Standing Charges to be scrapped. I've just come out of a meeting with the Chancellor. The gas standing charge will be scrapped in 2027 (my guess, either for 1 Oct price cap or the 1 Jan 28 price cap). Having campaigned against the moral hazard of standing charges for years, I'm pleased. It's currently £108 a year. That cost will be shifted onto unit rates. We don't know how much yet, but I suspect just under 1p per kwH. The Chancellor also said he will be talking to Ofgem about how they get rid of the charge on electricity as well, but that is 'trickier' apparently and will take longer. This is primarily about the price cap standing charges. There will still be an open market, so other firms can offer other forms of prices with or without the standing charge. My suspicion is that once it goes on the price cap, it will tend to be reduced on other tariffs as well. As for those on fixes: if you get a fix now, the rate of your fix is fixed, so this should not affect it. You will pay what you pay and if it has standing charges they will continue (some asking if they should delay fixing because of this, no if a fix is right for you and will save you money, don't let this change that - this is about the structure of bills, as opposed to the actual costs on bills). About 60% of people will pay less due to this, 40% more. My guesstimate is the dividing line will be somewhere around 12,500 kilowatt hours of gas (can't know until there is actual pricing). According to a study by Nesta, this switch would leave the majority of people in all income groups under £100,000 better off. Of course, when this does come in, if we're still in the nightmare that we are right now, there will need to be support put in for vulnerable higher users, who will have to pay more. Though hopefully by then the mid-east will have calmed and energy prices lower. --------------- That's all long term. The biggest issue in energy right now is that we're expecting a 27% rise in the price cap in January. I asked the Chancellor whether he will be intervening on that. He told me I'd have to wait for the budget, but reading between the lines, yes, there will be an announcement today. Whether it's an increase in the Warm Home Discount, or whether it's council tax banned, or whether it's done via a payout for people in say council tax bands A-D as a proxy for household income as Rishi Sunak did who knows.
    202229520.4K
  18. Martin Lewis✓@MartinSLewis
    CONFIRMED. Gas Standing Charges to be scrapped. I've just come out of a meeting with the Chancellor. The gas standing charge will be scrapped in 2027 (my guess, either for 1 Oct price cap or the 1 Jan 28 price cap). Having campaigned against the moral hazard of standing charges for years, I'm pleased. It's currently £108 a year. That cost will be shifted onto unit rates. We don't know how much yet, but I suspect just under 1p per kwH. The Chancellor also said he will be talking to Ofgem about how they get rid of the charge on electricity as well, but that is 'trickier' apparently and will take longer. This is primarily about the price cap standing charges. There will still be an open market, so other firms can offer other forms of prices with or without the standing charge. My suspicion is that once it goes on the price cap, it will tend to be reduced on other tariffs as well. As for those on fixes: if you get a fix now, the rate of your fix is fixed, so this should not affect it. You will pay what you pay and if it has standing charges they will continue (some asking if they should delay fixing because of this, no if a fix is right for you and will save you money, don't let this change that - this is about the structure of bills, as opposed to the actual costs on bills). About 60% of people will pay less due to this, 40% more. My guesstimate is the dividing line will be somewhere around 12,500 kilowatt hours of gas (can't know until there is actual pricing). According to a study by Nesta, this switch would leave the majority of people in all income groups under £100,000 better off. Of course, when this does come in, if we're still in the nightmare that we are right now, there will need to be support put in for vulnerable higher users, who will have to pay more. Though hopefully by then the mid-east will have calmed and energy prices lower. --------------- That's all long term. The biggest issue in energy right now is that we're expecting a 27% rise in the price cap in January. I asked the Chancellor whether he will be intervening on that. He told me I'd have to wait for the budget, but reading between the lines, yes, there will be an announcement today. Whether it's an increase in the Warm Home Discount, or whether it's council tax banned, or whether it's done via a payout for people in say council tax bands A-D as a proxy for household income as Rishi Sunak did who knows.
    9722732.2K890K
  19. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    Ben Southwood
    RT @Sam_Dumitriu: This is a very pithy explanation of why the 'induced demand' objection to roadbuilding isn't as powerful as anti-car campaigners believe.
    09031
  20. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    Here's @BritainRemade's tram project cost list, colored by electoral system. What do you notice? First past the post systems are more expensive than proportional representation systems. Generally, if you look through the data, you will find the same thing. But what is going on? I have a theory. FPTP vs PR is partly a cause of the story and partly an indicator of a broader range of differences between societies. The correlation between majoritarian FPTP systems and common law, for example, has been remarked upon by many people before. It indicates a broader 'administrative' versus 'majoritarian' divide. A range of commentators have tried to argue that 'common law systems are intrinsically adversarial, and we need consensus-based systems for cheap infrastructure', but this is obviously absurd, and easily refuted by the fact that British and American infrastructure flexibility, decisiveness, speed, and cost, was probably the *best* before the 1970s and 1980s (the common law existed then too!) Costs for common-law countries have exploded only since those decades. The proximate cause, as identified by @alon_levy and the Transit Costs Project – and this could easily be extended to a broader range of infrastructure than transit – is the consultant-outsourcing-accountability-sink model. (This interacts with or causes many of the other causes identified: gold plating, redesigns, delays, feast and famine, environmental regulation.) But I differ with Levy and co on whether this is simply an unforced error driven by ideology. Why make all these mistakes and keep making them? There is a myth in the UK that we are an 'elective dictatorship': we go to the election, elect MPs, and between them they have overwhelming power to do anything they wish on behalf of the nation. Does it feel like our MPs or PMs are all powerful to you? Did the huge Tory majority of 2019-2024 or the huge Labour majority of 2024-today seem to give them the power to enact massive social changes if they wished to? It *used* to be that a British public need only vote 30 or 40% for a given government, and this slim plurality or majority would be enough to make gigantic decisions. Back when the government had a lot of legitimacy, this gave Britain the most flexible system in the world. Unlike on the continent, where blockers, stakeholders, existing elites all had a formalized say within the system – whether union, or homeowner, or corporate producer interest – majorities in Britain and the US could overturn the deepest rules and interests easily. Before the 1970s, this was a huge advantage. But after the 1970s, this flipped into becoming a huge disadvantage. The less-flexible continental governments lost less legitimacy in the crises of the 1970s. But, more importantly, their decisionmaking had never depended so much on their legitimacy. Big social decisions had *always* involved more horse trading among stakeholder and interest groups, parties – more corporatism and more formalized bargaining. Before, this simply increased transactions costs. After, this meant they still had means to build consent for change. The flexible states did not. The important thing to note is that theoretically flexibility is USELESS if the public don't want you to have it. You are actively BETTER OFF putting all sorts of constraints on your ability to act, requiring yourself to ask unions, or agree with other parties, or whatever, so long as those limits help you generate consent for action. (This is the core insight about why Magna Carta and the Glorious Revolution gave Britain the most powerful, effective, vigorous, and active state in Europe, whereas absolutist monarchs were nearly all ineffective and unable to make profound changes to their societies.) The problem in Britain in the US is that elites have not accepted that they do not have full consent to govern without constraints. They are being dragged, kicking and screaming by populism, towards this conclusion, but refusing to see what is in front of their eyes. Getting European costs will require European methods: bringing a powerful enough coalition of those affected along to generate the legitimacy for major change.
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  22. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    Posts @bswud
    Really what I am trying to track here, which the electoral system only imperfectly proxies, is whether states have theoretical administrative flexibility, or whether there are formalized and systematized roles for residents, unions, producers, or other stakeholders in the process
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    002514
  23. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    When we initially brought in rent control in 1916, it completely halted the entire build to rent sector until 1988, when rent control was abolished. 1916-1988, the populations of all British city centres declined and people moved to the suburbs. Since 1988, the populations of British city centres have rebounded dramatically.
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  24. Ben Southwood✓@bswud
    This is a principal-agent problem at work. The result (the public refusing to fund improvements and/or removing discretion from administrative authorities to make improvements) is a situation that is worse for everyone than the 'build benches, enforce vagrancy rules' equilibrium
    The Suburbanist @The_Suburbanist
    How "public amenities" work: 1. "Bus riders need a place to sit." 2. "We have our seats! Yay!" 3. "Let's increase the budget for seats at bus stops!"
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  25. The Suburbanist@The_Suburbanist
    How "public amenities" work: 1. "Bus riders need a place to sit." 2. "We have our seats! Yay!" 3. "Let's increase the budget for seats at bus stops!"
    Download
    2085.1K