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Chamath Palihapitiya
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Chamath Palihapitiya✓

@chamath

Social Capital 8090 God is in the details.

1.1K Following2.5M Followers13.9K Posts
  1. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    To CEOs, CFOs, CIOs and Directors: Have you read the White House Accord on Super Intelligence? What will you do to safely deploy Super Intelligence within your Enterprise? EY and 8090 are building a new solution - KYSI (Know Your Super Intelligence) designed to create a verifiable record of AI-enabled decisions by capturing the context and evidence, and spotlighting controls, across enterprise environments. The solution helps organizations strengthen governance while keeping pace with innovation. It does this by providing: - End-to-end traceability - Policy-to-risk mapping - Auditable evidence packages Together, we are helping organizations move beyond AI experimentation toward AI they can trust, govern and scale enterprise-wide with confidence. To learn more, reach out to your EY Partner or ping us at
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  2. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    👀
    Social Capital @socialcapital
    Amazon’s long-term debt increased by ~3.4x in 1 year, to $173.1B. It borrowed $115.1B in the first 9 months of 2026 alone.
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  3. Social Capital✓@socialcapital
    Posts @socialcapital
    Amazon’s long-term debt increased by ~3.4x in 1 year, to $173.1B. It borrowed $115.1B in the first 9 months of 2026 alone.
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  5. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    I like Will’s writings - I always learn something that helps me refine my mental models.
    Will Manidis @WillManidis
    The benefits of abundant intelligence will accrue far outside of San Fransisco. Spent the last year writing about capital, sovereignty, and the coming reordering of economic power. THE COMMANDING HEIGHTS
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  6. Will Manidis✓@WillManidis
    The benefits of abundant intelligence will accrue far outside of San Fransisco. Spent the last year writing about capital, sovereignty, and the coming reordering of economic power. THE COMMANDING HEIGHTS
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    3285726.1K1.3M
  7. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    The evolution of the Amazon Prime Subscription for the modern age is at hand…
    Wall St Engine @wallstengine
    DOORDASH TO ACQUIRE INSTACART IN $17 BILLION DEAL $DASH has agreed to acquire $CART for $65 per share. Instacart shareholders can receive cash, DoorDash stock or a combination, with stock limited to 25% of the total consideration. DoorDash plans to retain Instacart's brand, app and enterprise technology products while combining DashPass and Instacart+ into a single membership. Instacart customers would gain access to over 50,000 additional stores, while combined membership savings are estimated at $100 million annually. The deal is expected to close in late 2027 or H1 2028, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.
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  8. Wall St Engine✓@wallstengine
    DOORDASH TO ACQUIRE INSTACART IN $17 BILLION DEAL $DASH has agreed to acquire $CART for $65 per share. Instacart shareholders can receive cash, DoorDash stock or a combination, with stock limited to 25% of the total consideration. DoorDash plans to retain Instacart's brand, app and enterprise technology products while combining DashPass and Instacart+ into a single membership. Instacart customers would gain access to over 50,000 additional stores, while combined membership savings are estimated at $100 million annually. The deal is expected to close in late 2027 or H1 2028, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.
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  9. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    Super interesting comparison of GPU finance and the AI buildout to airlines. I’ve seen two other people make this comparison now: 1. Ken Griffin 2. Sridhar Ramaswamy Both are very, very smart so worth learning more.
    Alex Song @alexsongis
    A lot of ink has been spilled on GPU financing lately. I spent over a decade trading ABS on Wall St, and structured over $2B+ of debt financings as an operator (including at @tryramp). Figured I'd try to make sense of this market, so I went back to a framework I knew well: aircraft ABS and aircraft engine ABS. My take: a GPU neocloud runs on airline economics, and the debt behind it looks a lot like aircraft engine ABS. The parallels: • Perishable inventory. An empty seat after the door closes is gone forever. So is an idle hour on an energized H100 rack. • 85%+ of cost is fixed (servers, 10-year rack leases, 10-14% debt service). One more hour of compute costs pennies of power. • Utilization is everything. Airlines break even around 80% load factor, a levered GPU cluster around 65-75%. The returns live in those last 25 percentage points. • NVIDIA is Boeing and Airbus rolled into one. Powered shells and grid interconnects are the new airport slots. • Wall St copied the aircraft financing playbook: take-or-pay contract plus servers in a bankruptcy-remote SPV, 70-80% LTV. Part 1 of my blog post goes into a lot more detail:
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  10. Alex Song✓@alexsongis
    A lot of ink has been spilled on GPU financing lately. I spent over a decade trading ABS on Wall St, and structured over $2B+ of debt financings as an operator (including at @tryramp). Figured I'd try to make sense of this market, so I went back to a framework I knew well: aircraft ABS and aircraft engine ABS. My take: a GPU neocloud runs on airline economics, and the debt behind it looks a lot like aircraft engine ABS. The parallels: • Perishable inventory. An empty seat after the door closes is gone forever. So is an idle hour on an energized H100 rack. • 85%+ of cost is fixed (servers, 10-year rack leases, 10-14% debt service). One more hour of compute costs pennies of power. • Utilization is everything. Airlines break even around 80% load factor, a levered GPU cluster around 65-75%. The returns live in those last 25 percentage points. • NVIDIA is Boeing and Airbus rolled into one. Powered shells and grid interconnects are the new airport slots. • Wall St copied the aircraft financing playbook: take-or-pay contract plus servers in a bankruptcy-remote SPV, 70-80% LTV. Part 1 of my blog post goes into a lot more detail:
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  11. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    Good read…
    Haircut @nodiligence
    anthropic is probably the best business in AI right now and i still wouldn’t touch it on day one. the whole thing is set up for suppliers and insiders to sell into the index buying.
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  12. Haircut✓@nodiligence
    anthropic is probably the best business in AI right now and i still wouldn’t touch it on day one. the whole thing is set up for suppliers and insiders to sell into the index buying.
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  13. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    Ant is an amazing business…
    Social Capital @socialcapital
    2 hours ago, Anthropic filed for an IPO. We went through the S-1 and broke it down in 6 charts:
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  14. Social Capital✓@socialcapital
    2 hours ago, Anthropic filed for an IPO. We went through the S-1 and broke it down in 6 charts:
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  15. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    As someone with a portfolio of energized land assets here is what I am seeing: 1. Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. Some are definitely better than others however. 2. Hyperscalers are intractable, bureaucratic organizations that take 3 months to do an NDA and want 18mo escrow periods. We built our portfolio by competing against these terms because of our speed and simplicity. The more future assets orgs like ours win, the bigger the problem for the hyperscalers downstream (see 3). 3. There are delays in the existing pipeline that will catch people off guard in 2027. Hyperacalers will (obviously) react by focusing on their own internal compute needs over any third party. If the third party is a model company, they will tell them to go through their model router where they will also take a non-trivial vig. Them telling Ant they have no compute for them (rumored in Ant’s S-1) if true is a huge tell that this is already happening. All of this is to say that it does look like there will be a lot of partially stranded compute and compute sitting in inventory in 2027 than is currently forecasted. This is bought and paid for but effectively underearning (below total cost of capital) or collecting dust. We see this as true for everyone - model companies, hyperscalers, neoclouds except ONE (you can guess which one). This dislocation will benefit two kinds of orgs: the non-bureaucratic big scalers who can build industrial scale quickly and the nimble, well capitalized players feeding them. 2027 will be a turbulent year because it will clear out a bunch of wrong/bad bets. It will also be a consolidation year for a few.
    Elon Musk @elonmusk
    @Yuchenj_UW I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers
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  16. Elon Musk✓@elonmusk
    Posts @Yuchenj_UW
    @Yuchenj_UW I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers
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  17. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    Posts @chamath
    Some more thoughts: 1. In Texas, getting mineral rights waivers are harder and take longer than ever. Case law is useful but it’s even more critical than ever to have these in place especially in West Texas where there is lots of activity. 2. East Texas is not buildable unless you’re a neocloud and can take the legal risk. Hyperscalers or foundational model companies may capitulate and come here but it will be a last resort type of thing. 3. Power pipeline is clogged everywhere. Utilities are completely overwhelmed and will ratchet their pipelining process to flush out the squatters. This will mean higher capital commitments earlier in the process for those that are real. 4. Builders don’t have the economic authority to offer local incentives to get the utility to move them up in the queue. The ultimate offtaker isn’t as aggressive as they should be to accelerate grid connections. When the builder/offtaker is the same, these conditions get much better. This is a big benefit for being a well funded IG hyperscaler. 5. Consumer pushback is still ratcheting up. Data centers are an easy target against the oligarchy who, collectively, still haven’t done enough to win society to their side.
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  18. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    Posts @chamath
    Last thought: The liquidated damages clauses of the contracts between neoclouds and their offtakers will be the final boss battle. If you don’t have experience building highly available compute, you will have outages that stress your uptime commitments. If you can’t remedy them, your offtaker will be extremely punitive. Terms that look good on paper now starts to shrivel under the LD terms of offtaker contracts. You’re already starting to see a few of these blow up - you lose your IG wrapper, a big hyperscaler dumps you etc etc. So anyone in the data center game needs to ultimately be excellent at management/uptime/maintenance. If you’re not, you may wilt when you inevitably have to manage some moment of downtime.
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  19. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    Services!
    Social Capital @socialcapital
    Worldwide spending on AI is projected to reach ~$2.7T this year. Yet, only ~1% of it is expected to go to the models themselves.
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  20. Social Capital✓@socialcapital
    Worldwide spending on AI is projected to reach ~$2.7T this year. Yet, only ~1% of it is expected to go to the models themselves.
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  21. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    Power is the binding constraint. This is why prices continue to climb so ferociously.
    Social Capital @socialcapital
    Renting Nvidia’s H100 costs 45% more than it did in December. It went on sale in 2022, and two newer generations have come out since. Yet, demand for compute is so far ahead of supply that older GPUs are getting more expensive.
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  22. Social Capital✓@socialcapital
    Renting Nvidia’s H100 costs 45% more than it did in December. It went on sale in 2022, and two newer generations have come out since. Yet, demand for compute is so far ahead of supply that older GPUs are getting more expensive.
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    2534275175K
  23. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    “We tried to get Claude to write it, but it did a poor, sloppy job and we had to spend a lot more time editing than we expected (don’t tell him we said that, just in case…). Perhaps there’s a lesson to be learned there. Claude also didn’t like our references to specific companies – one in particular. He preferred “standalone model developer”. So, our legal team would like us to point out that any reference to companies, products or individuals is illustrative and does not describe or imply their actual conduct, financial condition or intentions. It is a work of fiction, and any remaining errors are the fault of AI. As we know, AI “just does stuff sometimes” and no human should ever be held accountable for its actions. AI moves in mysterious ways.”
    Dario Perkins @darioperkins
    THE PERKINI REPORT: THE 2028 REALITY CRISIS What if the most obvious financial bubble in all of history turns out to be.... a bubble... and what if that is just really.... bearish? there were signs, there are always signs 🤣 free link: inspired by @citrini
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  24. Dario Perkins✓@darioperkins
    THE PERKINI REPORT: THE 2028 REALITY CRISIS What if the most obvious financial bubble in all of history turns out to be.... a bubble... and what if that is just really.... bearish? there were signs, there are always signs 🤣 free link: inspired by @citrini
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    911661.3K654K
  25. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    There is something ironic here: Agents seem to have the same leaks as humans when operating in groups…
    Xudong Han @Xudong07452910
    Anthropic 最近开始建议企业「少用点 Subagent」，甚至把一些专家 Agent 重新合并回主 Agent Loop。 他们在多个企业项目中发现，单 Agent + Skills 的效果经常比复杂的多 Agent 架构更好。有个客户改成单 Loop 后，运行速度甚至快了约 2 倍。 原因很容易理解。 多个 Agent 之间反复交接任务，每次都要传递和总结 Context，信息容易丢失，延迟和成本也跟着增加。 Anthropic 现在更推荐让一个主 Agent 负责规划和执行，需要时再动态加载 Skills 和 Tools，把业务流程和领域知识留在可复用的组件里。 不过文章里有个细节值得关注。 他们曾把客服系统里的 Subagent 合并，延迟确实降低了，却让一个原本能完成的任务失败了，因为主 Agent 漏掉了向物流专家确认送达时间这一步。 所以作者强调，每合并一个 Subagent，都要用端到端 Eval 验证，尤其要检查哪些原本通过的任务突然失败了。 当然，并行研究、独立验证、Context 隔离这些场景，Subagent 依然有价值。 这样看来以后设计 Multi-Agent，可能得先问问自己，每个 Subagent 真的需要独立的 Context 和执行循环吗？ Anthropic 还开源了一套迁移工具，可以帮你分析现有架构，逐步合并 Subagent，并比较改动前后的质量、成本和延迟。很推荐做 Agent 工程的朋友试试。 原文：
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  26. Xudong Han✓@Xudong07452910
    Anthropic 最近开始建议企业「少用点 Subagent」，甚至把一些专家 Agent 重新合并回主 Agent Loop。 他们在多个企业项目中发现，单 Agent + Skills 的效果经常比复杂的多 Agent 架构更好。有个客户改成单 Loop 后，运行速度甚至快了约 2 倍。 原因很容易理解。 多个 Agent 之间反复交接任务，每次都要传递和总结 Context，信息容易丢失，延迟和成本也跟着增加。 Anthropic 现在更推荐让一个主 Agent 负责规划和执行，需要时再动态加载 Skills 和 Tools，把业务流程和领域知识留在可复用的组件里。 不过文章里有个细节值得关注。 他们曾把客服系统里的 Subagent 合并，延迟确实降低了，却让一个原本能完成的任务失败了，因为主 Agent 漏掉了向物流专家确认送达时间这一步。 所以作者强调，每合并一个 Subagent，都要用端到端 Eval 验证，尤其要检查哪些原本通过的任务突然失败了。 当然，并行研究、独立验证、Context 隔离这些场景，Subagent 依然有价值。 这样看来以后设计 Multi-Agent，可能得先问问自己，每个 Subagent 真的需要独立的 Context 和执行循环吗？ Anthropic 还开源了一套迁移工具，可以帮你分析现有架构，逐步合并 Subagent，并比较改动前后的质量、成本和延迟。很推荐做 Agent 工程的朋友试试。 原文：
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  27. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    Chamath Palihapitiya
    RT @theallinpod: David Friedberg: France’s Crisis Is a Warning for America “France is a bellwether for the West. So take a look at this chart. This chart is a measure of public spending as a percent of GDP. And you can see the comparison of France's public spending as a % of GDP to the peak public spending as a % of GDP of major communist nations.” @Chamath: “So do you think France is a communist state? They spend like it.” @Jason: “Well, it's certainly been a socialist state, right?” Chamath: “Is it working?” @Friedberg: “That's my point. And I think this is such a prescient lesson for the West to look at. We all think that there's some political problem with Macron or whoever it was. The more the government spends, the worse the conditions get for its people, not the opposite, and then the people riot and revolt. Take a guess where the US is today. US public spending is roughly 36% of GDP. France today is operating its national government spending deficit is 5.4% of GDP. The US is actually 6.2% of GDP. France is, I think, probably the first to go because they're only growing their economy at half a percent while the US is growing at 2.3%. So we're still kind of hanging on because we have some degree of economic growth that's allowing us to kind of hold things together. But I would argue that we are facing the same sort of fiscal cliff which leads to this extraordinary social unrest as France. All the economic measures are aligned, we're at the same rate, we're at the same set of problems, and we're starting to see the cracks in the system. There's probably a multi-year solution.”
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  28. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    Chamath Palihapitiya
    RT @TheChiefNerd: Chamath on J-Cal Being Trump’s Press Secretary “I think you would be an incredible press secretary. The problem is that you have stupid ideas.” 🤣
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  29. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    #1 Pod!!!!
    The All-In Podcast @theallinpod
    POD UP! 🚨 -- AI Cyber Panic w/ @nikesharora -- Ken Griffin’s Bubble Warning -- The Fall of France? (0:00) Bestie intros! (0:11) Ken Griffin's AI bubble warning (8:19) Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora joins (14:24) AI Cyber panic: PHP exploits and the tumultuous year ahead (44:17) France on the brink: Riots, immigration referendum, debt crisis (1:31:49) Trump's second half strategy, Press Secretary J-Cal?
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  30. The All-In Podcast@theallinpod
    POD UP! 🚨 -- AI Cyber Panic w/ @nikesharora -- Ken Griffin’s Bubble Warning -- The Fall of France? (0:00) Bestie intros! (0:11) Ken Griffin's AI bubble warning (8:19) Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora joins (14:24) AI Cyber panic: PHP exploits and the tumultuous year ahead (44:17) France on the brink: Riots, immigration referendum, debt crisis (1:31:49) Trump's second half strategy, Press Secretary J-Cal?
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  31. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    This SpaceX paper is money good and better than most sovereign debt. Also means that everyone else except IG-grade hypers will price at 10-12% in 2027.
    Wall St Engine @wallstengine
    SpaceX $SPCX is finalizing a $40 billion debt raise at sharply higher borrowing costs than its previous financing, according to Semafor. The lowest-rated portion is expected to carry an interest rate of around 8.3%, while a safer portion backed by AI chips could price near 7.75%. The safer portion is expected to price more than 1 percentage point above where SpaceX's existing bonds trade. The deal, led by Apollo and Goldman Sachs, is expected to be finalized next week.
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  32. Wall St Engine✓@wallstengine
    SpaceX $SPCX is finalizing a $40 billion debt raise at sharply higher borrowing costs than its previous financing, according to Semafor. The lowest-rated portion is expected to carry an interest rate of around 8.3%, while a safer portion backed by AI chips could price near 7.75%. The safer portion is expected to price more than 1 percentage point above where SpaceX's existing bonds trade. The deal, led by Apollo and Goldman Sachs, is expected to be finalized next week.
    Download
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  33. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    Founders send me pitches every day. Here’s a better way: come to our hackathon! EVOLVE: 20 hours, overnight at 8090 in Redwood City, Nov 13–14. Build AI agents and tools that build software. The winning team, beyond recognition and a cool trophy gets two 1:1s with me, to help you refine a pitch or idea and then a follow-up. Use the time however you want. Ask me for advice, ask me for money or just make fun of me. All allowed if you win! Apply:
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  34. Chamath Palihapitiya✓@chamath
    stonks
    Social Capital @socialcapital
    US households now hold 48.2% of their financial assets in stocks, the highest on record. At the peak of the dot-com bubble, it was 38.7%.
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  35. Social Capital✓@socialcapital
    US households now hold 48.2% of their financial assets in stocks, the highest on record. At the peak of the dot-com bubble, it was 38.7%.
    Download
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