John Rapley

RT @unherd: Much of the discussion surrounding the current inflation spike focuses on the impact of Trump’s war on the price of energy. The assumption is therefore that the high prices are temporary. The OBR assumes that by 2028, the UK inflation rate will be close to the Bank of England’s 2% target once again, making this inflation shock transitory. Ahead of the mid-term elections, Trump made much the same argument: that the price surge will prove fleeting. Unfortunately, we’ve heard this before. The word “transitory” doesn’t have great currency among economists these days. The original inflation surge of 2021 was initially waved off by central bankers as a brief aberration, but here we are, in the sixth year of above-target inflation that we keep hearing is about to come down. Other than during a brief period in 2024, inflation has not returned to the 2% target Western central banks have set for it. Read more from @jarapley:

RT @unherd: Tech stocks are tumbling as AI companies struggle to justify their massive valuations. Is the boom turning into a crash? @jarapley 👇

RT @unherd: Alphabet, the owner of Google, lost half a trillion dollars in value this week. Investors fear the AI bubble is going to burst, writes @jarapley 👇

RT @unherd: Britain’s economy is proving more resilient than expected. The trouble is that the Chancellor has precious little room for manoeuvre if things go wrong, writes @jarapley 👇

RT @unherd: Andy Burnham’s conference speech was full of expensive spending pledges. Is the public ready for an upending of Britain’s financial system? @jarapley 👇

RT @unherd: Andy Burnham has signalled that the triple lock will be watered down from 2030 to fund a new social care system. But has he gone far enough? @jarapley 👇

RT @unherd: Tomorrow, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will meet to discuss AI security. But with diverging aims for the technology, the two nations are unlikely to reach an agreement on safety, writes @jarapley 👇

RT @unherd: ‘China is focused on developing practical applications using existing AI models, and then taking advantage of its global dominance in manufacturing to create marketable products.’ Read @jarapley on Beijing’s AI goals👇

RT @timwillems85: Why have long-term rates risen so much since 2020? In a new @VoxEU post, Paul Beaudry, Paolo Cavallino, and I show that about 90% of the increase for the US occurred within 3-day windows around Fed speeches and nonfarm payroll releases [1/7]

Anatomy of a rise: Monetary policy and the post-Covid surge in long-term interest rates Paul Beaudry @ubcVSE @UBC, Paolo Cavallino @BIS_org, Tim Willems @timwillems85 @bankofengland

RT @Ethan_Lou: Mark Carney made a strong debut this week, but the real story is what he left undone. The government staged a polished housewarming, and the fresh paint could not hide the structural questions beneath it. Investors and voters alike will care less about the symbolism than about whether the place is solid enough to trust. A few visible gestures are not the same as a convincing economic program. The hard tests remain: credibility, discipline, and a clear plan for growth and spending. Until those are answered, the government will look renovated on the outside but uncertain on the inside. The latest from the Globe's business commentary, by John Rapley:

RT @unherd: Yesterday’s decision by the Fed to raise interest rates was hardly a surprise. But the decision’s unanimity will be a shock to the Trump administration, writes @jarapley 👇

RT @unherd: ‘If Bessent, under pressure from Trump, challenges Warsh to a game of chicken, he will find out the hard way that the only sheriff in town is the Fed boss.’ The war over America’s monetary policy is heating up, writes @jarapley 👇

RT @SohrabAhmari: "On both days, the stadium was slow to fill and never reached full capacity." @james_billot reports from Trump's Boomer-palooza.

RT @Leena53022916: *BRILLIANT* The French made a short film about what could happen after all immigrants would follow the ‘_white, angry old man’s_’ advice to go back where they came from.*

RT @Ethan_Lou: The economy is entering a late-cycle reckoning after years of being lulled by cheap money and rising asset prices. A war-driven oil shock has joined debt, inflation and weakening confidence to create a dangerous new mix. Like a frog in boiling water, gradual deterioration has let households, businesses and governments take on too much leverage without enough alarm. Rising prices and higher borrowing costs now threaten spending, profits and financial stability at the same time. The stock market has been buoyed by easy conditions, but those gains rest on increasingly fragile foundations. The result is an apocalypse of complacency giving way to a harsh adjustment, with savings eroded and vulnerabilities finally exposed. The latest from the Globe's business commentary, by John Rapley:

RT @NTarnopolsky: 💥#Boom: UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed personally called Netanyahu 10 days before October 7 and warned Netanyahu that Hamas was preparing a massive operation. Netanyahu ignored him & didn't bother briefing Israel's security chiefs about the alarm.

RT @unherd: Get ready for the Trump Slump, by John Rapley (@jarapley) It seems unlikely that the rise in bond yields we’ve seen over the last week could continue much longer without something cracking. As debt-laden governments are forced to commit ever more of their revenues to interest payments they will have to either cut spending or raise taxes. In the US, such fiscal austerity would drain the supply of money that has kept the economy revving. That, in turn, would hit the profits of the tech companies inflating the bubble just as their access to credit dries up. In short, the scale of the recession could stand in direct proportion to the scale of the boom which preceded it, at a time western governments would be more constrained in their ability to engage in counter-cyclical policies. Read more:

RT @Ethan_Lou: Trump’s push toward war with Iran threatens to unleash far more economic damage than military gain. The most immediate danger is not on the battlefield but in financial markets. A prolonged conflict would likely drive inflation higher by raising energy costs and disrupting trade. That would also push interest rates upward as investors demand more compensation for risk and inflation. The result is a bond market shock that can ripple through the entire economy. Trump may have aimed at Iran, but the larger detonation could hit households, borrowers and investors at home. The latest from the Globe's business commentary, by John Rapley:

RT @unherd: Get ready for the Trump Slump, by John Rapley (@jarapley) If Andy Burnham faces a cold new reality, Donald Trump may become a lame duck. The odds of a Democratic sweep of Congress in the November elections, currently tilted slightly in their favour, will probably lengthen if petrol prices go back up, inflation rises and credit card costs become more burdensome. Inflation that has been running over 3% has now begun to erode the incomes of ordinary Americans, and the bottom half of the economy can be forgiven for thinking there’s already a recession. And if he doesn’t stop striking Iran, then chaos could follow: the AI bubble burst, a fall in global stock markets, and a slide into recession. Read more:

RT @unherd: Get ready for the Trump Slump, by John Rapley (@jarapley) Improbable though it may seem, a bombing raid on Iran may, like the proverbial Chinese butterfly flapping its wings and causing faraway chaos, trigger disparate distant ructions. Not only could the US’s November elections be upended, and the political honeymoon of Andy Burnham brought to a halt. The chaos could also trigger a fall in global stock markets and possibly a slide into recession. Donald Trump’s latest attempt at escalating to de-escalate in the Middle East conflict has not had the desired effect. Since the bombing began over the weekend, bond yields have been rising across the world, the price of oil has shot back up and stock markets have turned shaky. Read more: