We May Have Found the Reason for the Democrats' Victory in Texas
“[T]he broken election system is not a bug, but a feature for corrupt Washington politicians.”
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Kyle Becker✓
@kylenabecker
Becker Brief podcaster. RedState columnist. Former: Fox News writer for #1 show. Director of Viral Media. Author of dystopian fantasy series on fallen empires.
3.7K Following683K Followers149K Posts
- Kyle BeckerRT @nedryun: This is absolutely nuts TBH.Mica Soellner @MicaSoellnerDCTRUMP backs RNC Chair Joe Gruters to continue leading party’s political arm:0130371
TRUMP backs RNC Chair Joe Gruters to continue leading party’s political arm:
72929130K- Kyle BeckerRT @BensmanTodd: Exclusive: U.S. Department of Homeland Security officials are concerned enough about the new Texas governor to order “worst-case scenario” plans, a top U.S. Customs and Border Protection official disclosed to me.”0210374
- Yeah, well, it looks like the price of gas came down AFTER the election. Because, OF COURSE, it would.
910802.4K - Houston wastes no time to unilaterally "legalize" illegal immigration. The mayor argues enforcing immigration law is making lawbreakers "afraid" they will be held accountable. This is not a "Democratic" Party, folks. It's a lawless Marxist regime.211183405.6K
- Meet Trump's new Chief of Staff: @StephenM. President Trump just shook up the White House by replacing his chief of staff Susie Wiles. Wiles confirmed Thursday night she has resigned. He just made the announcement. The next two years are going to be wild. But Trump will have another fighter by his side in the White House.
26282146.1K - Kyle BeckerRT @JKash000: Wow! In Texas, the state with the largest number of popular votes in the country, Democrats did the same thing in the 2018 midterm as they did in 2026, but we never realized it because Republicans narrowly won the House in 2018 for Texas. Midterm turnout went up from the Presidential election, but only for Dems.01801K
- Kyle BeckerRT @kylenabecker: Did the Democrats ‘Mess with Texas’? The Stunning New Election Data “But some of the most astonishing numbers came out of Texas, and the more closely you examine them, the more disturbing the picture becomes.”0488018.5K
- What I find problematic about this is the REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY. America is very diverse. There is deep and wide partisan variation, even between states. Virtually anything that was below Trump +15 in the 2024 election flipped. That holds true not just for these Senate and Governor races, but mostly for the House races. It's just a remarkable lack of variation for an election. Pretty crazy.Truth Is Freedom @TruthAnswersAllTHE 15% BAND Look at this chart. 59 races. Senate and governor. States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024. The solid lines are 2024. The dashed lines are 2026. The shaded bands are what moved. One formula fits all of it: Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024 Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024 For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side. The numbers: Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share Governor: ~86% Variation explained: 88% What makes it strange: It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero. The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races. Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853. Why seats flipped: At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped. What this means: Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere. A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out. The numbers raise the question. The ballots can answer it.311194048.6K
THE 15% BAND Look at this chart. 59 races. Senate and governor. States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024. The solid lines are 2024. The dashed lines are 2026. The shaded bands are what moved. One formula fits all of it: Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024 Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024 For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side. The numbers: Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share Governor: ~86% Variation explained: 88% What makes it strange: It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero. The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races. Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853. Why seats flipped: At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped. What this means: Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere. A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out. The numbers raise the question. The ballots can answer it.
1.2K5.7K14.8K1.5M- Posts @kylenabeckerIn other words, Democrats were equally motivated to vote against Trump in Montana as they were in Maine as they were in North Carolina as they were in Oregon as they were in Kansas as they were in Illinois... and Republican turnout seems to have been fairly constant... of course, the indies played a role (about 40% explanatory power)... the rest was just sheer consistent turnout regardless of state, campaign ads, ground game, etc., all of that was just "noise"64231.7K
- Kyle BeckerRT @kylenabecker: The Democrats got 20 milliom new votes. That’s a 40% increase from out of nowbere. This is 10 million more than in 2018. When Trump was also on the ballot. Republicans actually marginally increased turnout from 2022 and 2018. Republican voters rarely flipped this election, according to NBC News exit polls (~1%). So these are just new Dem voters “mad about Trump” that are 20% more than his last midterm. And some Dem candidates apparently outperformed Kamala Harris, including Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa. Hinojosa was actually trailing Abbott in the aggregate polling before the election. How very odd.01.4K0259K
- California is literally trying to recreate the 2008 market crash. That's what happens when you elect marxists who cosplay as "Democrats."The Assembly @InTheAssemblyBREAKING: California voters just passed Prop 37. Buyers of newly built homes can now put down 3% instead of 20%. How: the state lends you the other 17% as a second mortgage, funded by up to $25 billion in bonds. On an $800,000 home that's $24,000 down instead of $160,000.19391877.6K
- There should not be a single American voter that should do a pikachu "surprise face" when the market goes to sh*t after electing a bunch of unhinged marxists. Enjoy watching your retirement savings crumble to dust. Have fun seeing inflation skyrocket. Make sure to fist bump when energy prices stay high. All because of "Orange Man Bad." Galaxy brain stuff, kids.3413564212.9K
BREAKING: California voters just passed Prop 37. Buyers of newly built homes can now put down 3% instead of 20%. How: the state lends you the other 17% as a second mortgage, funded by up to $25 billion in bonds. On an $800,000 home that's $24,000 down instead of $160,000.2.8K77615.2K7.9M- Posts @kylenabeckerI am very tired of trying to outvote millions of emotional toddlers. Maybe I'll "vote harder" next time.812963.1K
- We need to stop thinking about these elections as Republicans versus Democrats. It's not even about conservatives versus leftists. It's about globalists versus Americans who want representative government. Our elections are broken. Until that is fixed, it's all political theater. Paper ballots. National IDs. One Election Day. Until that happens, we will be spinning our wheels to get Washington politicians to actually follow the Will of the People.33953398.8K
- This, indeed, is a very bizarre phenomenon. "Reverse coattails." Of course, that's not a thing. But it is the inverse of "coattails," because the down ballot Republicans are outdrawing the top of the ticket. Flipping unbelievable.The Lone Raccoon @FSociety_1942NORTH CAROLINA Same anomaly as Texas. Note that about 150,000 more Republicans voted for the Republican Court of Appeals seats (all 3!) than the Senate Republican (Cooper). 110,000 more voted for their Republican in the U.S. House than Cooper as well. And, like Texas, the Democrats voted more for their Senate Candidate than anyone else. Extraordinary. I suspect we cracked their code already, at least on a macro level.1926472614.9K
- There is no "Democratic Party," folks. It's the party of fraudsters, marxists, and crooks. Then again, I repeat myself.443881.7K16.5K
NORTH CAROLINA Same anomaly as Texas. Note that about 150,000 more Republicans voted for the Republican Court of Appeals seats (all 3!) than the Senate Republican (Cooper). 110,000 more voted for their Republican in the U.S. House than Cooper as well. And, like Texas, the Democrats voted more for their Senate Candidate than anyone else. Extraordinary. I suspect we cracked their code already, at least on a macro level.
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Democrats recruited a fake Dan Sullivan to defraud Alaska voters It worked
2.9K4.8K51.5K5.4M- This is where we're at in the NBgAy. Singing the Star Spangled Banner and waving a rainbow flag. Of course, the players can't stop laughing2385613.3K
- Kyle BeckerRT @RonDeSantis: Every single federal judicial vacancy needs to be filled in the lame duck session. The Senate should pull all-nighters for as long as it takes. Democrats wont confirm a single Trump judge once they take over.03K01K
- Kyle BeckerRT @kylenabecker: There you go. I knew that hardly any Republicans "flipped" for radical Democrats. These are 1.7 million new blue midterm voters in Texas that materialized as if "out of thin air." As I've said before, this isn't explained by California transplants, which are no more than 700,000 net population. H1Bs, permanent residents, and illegal aliens are not legally allowed to vote. In 2018, Trump was president and this blows that turnout away. Trump's approval rating was only slightly better in that midterm election. Gallup tracked around 40–41%, and now he sits roughly in the 38–39% range. Democrats gained a net of 41 seats, taking a 235–199 majority. They also won the national House popular vote by about 8.6 points (53.4%–44.8%). This ended eight years of Republican House control and the post-2016 GOP trifecta; Nancy Pelosi returned as Speaker. In 2026, Democrats are on track for a large majority (roughly 240–250+ seats projected). They have flipped dozens of Republican-held districts, including in deep-red territory. But in 2018, Democrats did not flip ANY major red Senate seats. They picked up only two seats: Nevada and Arizona. Republicans actually flipped four Democratic-held seats in red-leaning territory: Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and Florida. That gave them a net gain of two seats and an expanded majority. Yet, in 2026, Democrats are on track to flip SEVEN states, almost all of them Trump won. Do with that information what you will.Mark Mendlovitz @MendlovitzMarkNothing that happened in Texas jibes with the NBC exit poll. The theory of massive Republican crossover to Democrats is total BS. And this is from LIBERAL media outlet NBC.01.2K082.7K
- Kyle BeckerRT @johnddavidson: Nobody cares. Please leave us alone.Mike Pence @Mike_PenceMy thoughts on the Midterm Results: My heart breaks for our country. Despite the best efforts by so many to support Republican candidates and call conservatives back to our principles, our Republican team suffered a historic defeat. This midterm election wasn’t a rout, it was a reckoning. The American people have rejected our party’s shift toward economic populism, and our majorities in Congress and state legislatures and governorships across the country paid the price. But like most people of faith, I’m an eternal optimist. I know that with God’s help, we can save our movement—and our country—again. We can return the Republican Party to the timeless principles that have led to our greatest successes and, more important, have made America strong, prosperous and free. The conservative comeback starts today. Let’s get to work. 🇺🇸0601.1K
Nothing that happened in Texas jibes with the NBC exit poll. The theory of massive Republican crossover to Democrats is total BS. And this is from LIBERAL media outlet NBC.
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My thoughts on the Midterm Results: My heart breaks for our country. Despite the best efforts by so many to support Republican candidates and call conservatives back to our principles, our Republican team suffered a historic defeat. This midterm election wasn’t a rout, it was a reckoning. The American people have rejected our party’s shift toward economic populism, and our majorities in Congress and state legislatures and governorships across the country paid the price. But like most people of faith, I’m an eternal optimist. I know that with God’s help, we can save our movement—and our country—again. We can return the Republican Party to the timeless principles that have led to our greatest successes and, more important, have made America strong, prosperous and free. The conservative comeback starts today. Let’s get to work. 🇺🇸
7.9K4943.8K1.3M- Kyle BeckerRT @JetfanChris24: There is no world where this isn’t a touchdown. None.Chris @JetfanChris24Democrats, Republicans, don’t matter. That was an Austin Seferian-Jenkins touchdown and you’ll never convince me otherwise.014501.8K
- Ilhan Omar Addressed Her Supporters After Election Victory. What She Said is Jaw-Dropping.
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Chris@JetfanChris24Democrats, Republicans, don’t matter. That was an Austin Seferian-Jenkins touchdown and you’ll never convince me otherwise.301161.6K284K- Democrats are incapable of cutting spending. That is because their party exists to loot the taxpayers and redistribute the wealth to their cronies. That is why it is IMPOSSIBLE for the Democrats to improve affordability. It is also why every election with the radical Democrat Party feels like a zero-sum election. Democrats do not seek to improve the entire United States economic picture. That is the sum-gain approach that underlies capitalism. A market economy requires freedom of opportunity, a meritocracy, and individual rights, such as private property. The Democrat Party is fundamentally opposed to all of those things. It rigs the economy for its party clients with DEI, welfare, and other "rewards" for supporting the party. If you vote for the Democrats, you "win." If you work hard, live a good life, mind your own business, and follow the rules, you "lose." That is why we are no longer the United States of America. We are the Divided States of America.Ron DeSantis @RonDeSantisDemocrats plan to “tackle” affordability, but they will not address the reason — massive borrowing, printing and spending — we have had and continue to have inflation in the first place. If anything, they will add gas to the fire like Biden did.11371064.3K
- Kyle BeckerRT @nicksortor: 🚨 WTF?! President Trump just revealed his OWN ADVISERS told him to "STOP TALKING ABOUT THE BORDER" because "NOBODY'S INTERESTED" These people need to be FIRED. Immigration was the SOLE ISSUE Republicans won BY FAR in the election, per exit polls "I probably got elected on the border. I can't even talk about it now because people say 'nobody's interested because you fixed it.'" "My OWN people. They say nobody is interested in the border!"05.8K01.2K
Democrats plan to “tackle” affordability, but they will not address the reason — massive borrowing, printing and spending — we have had and continue to have inflation in the first place. If anything, they will add gas to the fire like Biden did.
6889806.9K102K- Kyle BeckerRT @kylenabecker: This chart is not simply explained away by the Iran War, gas prices and ICE. The radical Democrats' brand is too toxic. They are not going to shift 99% of districts in the United States. Sorry. Not happening. 1. Where were all the Iran War protests? The left loves to stage fake protests over everything from DOGE to planned parenthood cuts. Nothing? 2. Gas prices. These are about the same as late Biden. And grocery prices have steadily eased, while the economy has made some progress. 3. ICE. Trump literally ran on mass deportations. If anything, many voters want these ramped up. Thin stuff to hang this kind of Democrat shellacking on.C3 @C_3C_3I call bullshit. Out of 411 districts… 407 districts shifted Left. 4 districts did not shift Left. That’s 99%. No way.0617037.9K
- Kyle BeckerRT @kylenabecker: This is exactly the kind of stuff I'm talking about.
JKash 🍊MAGA Queen @JKash000The pattern continues all the way back to 1960!!! The raw vote count has never increased for a midterm after a Presidential election in Texas since 1960. This time, the 2026 Midterms, that happened for Democrats, and the increase was a huge 400,000. Let that sink in.06680521K - Just so we're all clear on this, Republicans did not "stay home." They turned out at about the same rate as they did the last midterm cycle. But they lost all of the House districts where Kamala Harris won. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. GOP also lost every swing district below R+5, only a few R+5 to R+10, and HALF of the R+10 to R+15. Republicans did not stay home. Only about 1% of Republicans "flipped." And they got demolished in districts where they were favored up to ten points. What an "unbelievable" victory for the Democrats.
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The pattern continues all the way back to 1960!!! The raw vote count has never increased for a midterm after a Presidential election in Texas since 1960. This time, the 2026 Midterms, that happened for Democrats, and the increase was a huge 400,000. Let that sink in.
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🚨DDHQ: Democrats have won ALL 201 House districts Kamala Harris carried in 2024, flipping EVERY Republican-held seat among them. The GOP will hold ZERO Harris-won districts.
264510338.7K- Kyle BeckerRT @mazemoore: Four days ago Tucker Carlson warned in a long post that Trump was preparing to drop nuclear bombs on Iran. His post laid out all the "details" of the plan. The post got almost 100 million views and 400k likes and was shared everywhere across social media and MSM. Carlson warned that November 7th (two days from now) was the day that Trump would be deciding to drop the bombs. He said that there was a good chance that Trump would start WWIII, which Tucker said would be "short and final" because it would be a nuclear holocaust. This is the first video that Carlson has put out since the midterms. It's almost two hours long. At no time during this video does Tucker mention the upcoming "nuclear holocaust" that he said may be coming in two days. Think about that. In this video Tucker did celebrate the end of Trump and Trumpism a bunch of times, but there was no mention of the possible upcoming nuclear holocaust that he just warned the world about in excruciating detail. I've never seen anything like this. I'm just blown away. Tucker and many others who supported Trump in 2024 have been doing this sort of incomprehensible sabotage since early 2025, way before the Iran War started. A month into Trump's second term there were big name podcasters already declaring his presidency a failure. I know a lot of them have always hated Trump but were forced to support him in 2024 because it would have killed their brands to support Kamala. She was just that bad. I also realize that it is way more profitable to attack the person in the White House than to support them. The more outlandish the attack, the more clicks. That being said, I still don't understand this psychotic, life-consuming obsession with undermining and destroying this administration. They would never do this to a Democrat president.Tucker Carlson @TuckerCarlsonThe Republican Party just imploded. Here’s why it happened and what happens next.03.1K01.7K
- The Democrat babies who threw a temper tantrum on Tuesday are waking up to a lot of broken toys 🤣
56596.4K - Posts @kylenabecker*Edit: 1% more Republicans flipped, the totals are 7% flip in 2026 and 6% flip in 202200161.6K
The Republican Party just imploded. Here’s why it happened and what happens next.4.2K4.6K29.9K3.7M- Posts @kylenabeckerThe radical Democrat brand is great, what can you do... oh, wait
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