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PollCheck✓

@poll_checker

UK voting intention polls, seat projections & calculators. Independent tracker | Westminster • Locals

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  1. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Something fun 🚨 I've put together the story of the May 7th elections - English Locals, Holyrood and the Senedd Take a journey through 2026 - Reform took most seats in England, and won seats in Holyrood and the Senedd for the first time Labour lost 460 seats in London, while both the Greens and Reform gained London Boroughs for the first time Did you know that in 18 councils, the party with the most votes didn't win the most seats? Or that 8 seats were decided by a single vote? Scroll through the story here:
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  2. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    GB voting intention polls with the Conservatives ahead of Reform UK, by month: July: 0 of 29 August: 1 of 29 September: 4 of 29 (1 tied) October: 8 of 21 (1 tied) Average Conservative / Reform UK share: July: 20.1% / 24.8% August: 19.9% / 24.1% September: 20.1% / 23.0% October: 21.2% / 22.4%
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  3. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 32% (+2) Reform UK: 25% (+1) Conservative: 21% (-1) Greens: 8% (=) Liberal Democrats: 7% (=) SNP: 4% (+1) Others: 3% (=) Via: Deltapoll MOE: ±2.2% Field Work: 23-26 Oct changes w/ 16 - 19 Oct
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  4. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 28% (=) Conservative: 24% (+1) Reform UK: 23% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 11% (+1) Greens: 7% (-1) Restore Britain: 5% (=) SNP: 2% (-1) Others: 1% (=) Via: More in Common Field Work: 23-26 Oct changes w/ 16-19 Oct
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  5. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    PollCheck
    RT @ElectCllrsUK: We are approaching the time of the year where the 6-month rule takes effect. After 6th November 2026, any casual vacancy that occurs in a local authority, must have its by-election delayed to LE2027. This only occurs if the councillor's term would have ended in 2027. If the councillor's term ends in 2028-2031, a by-election is still held.
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  6. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Something different for a limited time - there's now some US midterm polling and forecasts on the site for those interested
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    002565
  7. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Reform are now past the point of FPTP helping them, and as in 2024 they're looking at a relatively high vote share with few seats They're currently at 21% in the tracker, and projected at 40 seats If this drops to 19-20%, they'll be projected at around 20 seats
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  8. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Lowest Reform polling from @YouGov since Jan 2025 when tracker started
    PollCheck @poll_checker
    Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 27% (=) Conservative: 22% (-1) Reform UK: 20% (-2) Liberal Democrats: 11% (=) Greens: 10% (=) Restore Britain: 4% (+1) SNP: 2% (=) Others: 2% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Via: YouGov MOE: ±2.0% Field Work: 25-26 Oct changes w/ 18-19 Oct
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  9. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 27% (=) Conservative: 22% (-1) Reform UK: 20% (-2) Liberal Democrats: 11% (=) Greens: 10% (=) Restore Britain: 4% (+1) SNP: 2% (=) Others: 2% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Via: YouGov MOE: ±2.0% Field Work: 25-26 Oct changes w/ 18-19 Oct
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  10. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Holyrood Voting Intention Constituency: SNP: 34.0% (-4) Labour: 18.0% (-1) Reform UK: 13.0% (-3) Conservative: 12.0% N/C Liberal Democrats: 9.0% (-2) Greens: 7.0% (+5) Regional: SNP: 28.0% (+1) Labour: 17.0% (+1) Greens: 15.0% (+1) Conservative: 13.0% (+1) Reform UK: 13.0% (-4) Liberal Democrats: 9.0% N/C Via: Norstat Field Work: 20 - 23 Oct changes w/ 2026
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  11. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    NEW: Scotland Westminster voting intention SNP: 32% (+2) Labour: 21% (-14) Reform UK: 15% (+8) Conservative: 13% (0) Green: 7% (+3) Lib Dem: 6% (-4) Restore Britain: 4% (new) Changes w/GE2024 Via: Norstat for The Sunday Times Fieldwork: 20 to 23 October 2026
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  12. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 27% (=) Conservative: 22% (-1) Reform UK: 20% (-2) Liberal Democrats: 11% (=) Greens: 10% (=) Via: YouGov Field Work: 25-26 Oct changes w/ 20 October
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  13. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Satisfaction with party leaders and the government (satisfied / dissatisfied, net): Kemi Badenoch: 35% / 39%, net −4 Andy Burnham: 35% / 45%, net −10 Ed Davey: 20% / 42%, net −22 Zack Polanski: 17% / 56%, net −39 Nigel Farage: 22% / 64%, net −42 The government: 23% / 66%, net −43 Via: Ipsos Political Monitor. Fieldwork 15 to 22 October 2026.
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  14. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    New Westminster MRP: Labour: 27% / 280 seats (−131) Reform UK: 24% / 130 seats (+125) Conservative: 21% / 116 seats (−5) Lib Dem: 10% / 62 seats (−10) Green: 10% / 6 seats (+2) SNP: 3% / 26 seats (+17) Plaid Cymru: 1% / 8 seats (+4) Independent: 3 seats (−2) Changes w/GE2024 Via: Good Growth Foundation MRP. Fieldwork 5 to 10 September 2026, n=10,301.
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  15. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Posts @poll_checker
    278 seats have the top two within 5 points: Labour v Reform: 108 Conservative v Reform: 71 Conservative v Labour: 41 Labour v SNP: 22 Conservative v Lib Dem: 19 Labour v Green: 3 Other contests: 14
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    001698
  16. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    If true, this would be a Labour / Reform contest, with Labour likely holding on current polling
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    Politics UK @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Rachel Reeves is rumoured to quit as an MP to "cash in" on her experience as Chancellor It comes after she "secretly met" two City companies in the last fortnight [@MillardClothier]
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  17. Politics UK✓@PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Rachel Reeves is rumoured to quit as an MP to "cash in" on her experience as Chancellor It comes after she "secretly met" two City companies in the last fortnight [@MillardClothier]
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  18. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    PollCheck projection of @Ipsos_in_the_UK poll: Labour: 359 (-52) Conservative: 147 (+26) Liberal Democrats: 50 (-22) SNP: 31 (+22) Reform UK: 25 (+20) Others: 8 (+2) Plaid Cymru: 7 (+3) Green: 4 (=) Restore Britain: 1 (new) Changes w/GE2024
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    PollCheck @poll_checker
    Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 32% (+5) Conservative: 24% (+3) Reform UK: 20% (-3) Liberal Democrats: 9% (+1) Greens: 8% (-5) Others: 6% Via: Ipsos N=1,109 Field Work: 15-22 October changes w/ 10-15 September
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  19. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 32% (+5) Conservative: 24% (+3) Reform UK: 20% (-3) Liberal Democrats: 9% (+1) Greens: 8% (-5) Others: 6% Via: Ipsos N=1,109 Field Work: 15-22 October changes w/ 10-15 September
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  20. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Approval Ratings (NET) Andy Burnham: 6% (-2) Kemi Badenoch: 0% (+1) Ed Davey: -8% (-2) Nigel Farage: -28% (-2) Zack Polanski: -31% (-2) Via: Opinium Field Work: 21-23 Oct changes w/ 7-9 Oct
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  21. PollCheck✓@poll_checker
    Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 30% (+1) Reform UK: 22% (-1) Conservative: 20% (=) Greens: 10% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 9% (=) Others: 5% (=) SNP: 3% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Via: Opinium MOE: ±2.2% Field Work: 21-23 Oct changes w/ 7-9 Oct
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