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Anthony Salvanto
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Anthony Salvanto

@SalvantoCBS

All things on what people think and how they vote. Exec Director Elections and Surveys at CBS News.

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  1. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Democrats maintain lead in bid for a House - on pace for 229 in our model... range could reach into the 230s -but Reps do have very narrow path to hold, too. That D lead has been durable but hasn't expanded either i.e., there isn't a growing wave, at least not as of today.
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  2. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Anthony Salvanto
    RT @CBSNewsPoll: Against a backdrop of continued concern about inflation & the economy, Dems maintain a lead in a bid for a House majority. Currently on pace for 229 seats in our CBS News House model estimate, which translates voters' congressional preferences into seats. Potential range of outcomes could reach into the 230s, but Reps do still have a very narrow path to hold.
    020024
  3. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Anthony Salvanto
    RT @CBSNewsPoll: Talarico's standing is helped by more Democrats saying they'll definitely vote. That leaves the dynamic in the closing weeks very much up for grabs. If more Republicans decide to vote, it could certainly change.
    07025
  4. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Anthony Salvanto
    RT @CBSNewsPoll: Latino voters in Texas swung toward Trump in 2024, but most are now backing Democrat Talarico. They are more likely than voters overall to say higher prices have been a hardship or difficult, & most do not think Paxton has the right personal character to serve as a Senator.
    010024
  5. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Anthony Salvanto
    RT @CBSNewsPoll: Texas just has a lot more Republicans than Democrats. That means Talarico needs to do overwhelmingly well with independents and get some vote shift among GOPers, or activate enough new voters to offset that.
    063022
  6. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Texas Senate is... tight — essentially tied — and now all about...turnout.
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  7. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    This stuff is great. For detail down to the towns and precincts, reads on early vote, all of it. Super excited.
    VoteHub @VoteHub
    NEWS — VoteHub is going live on Election Night! We’re partnering with CBS News to power “The Nerd Show,” bringing our precinct results, maps, and models to a national audience. And of course, we’ll still be posting maps and analysis here nonstop, with live results on our site.
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  8. VoteHub✓@VoteHub
    NEWS — VoteHub is going live on Election Night! We’re partnering with CBS News to power “The Nerd Show,” bringing our precinct results, maps, and models to a national audience. And of course, we’ll still be posting maps and analysis here nonstop, with live results on our site.
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  9. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Yep - Join the great @CHueyBurns and me and the amazing gang at @VoteHub for all the data all the time...
    Sara Fischer Knight @sarafischer
    NEW: CBS News to launch election night "nerd show" for politics junkies
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  10. Sara Fischer Knight✓@sarafischer
    NEW: CBS News to launch election night "nerd show" for politics junkies
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  11. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    I get that people want to talk about "the polls," are they right etc. Fine. But some of what you're seeing is a simple, political story: Numbers driven by lower turnout expression from Reps. (And of course that can change.)
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  12. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    ..and my regular (well, biennial) reminder that the House is won and lost by 435 seats - not national popular vote. ...Follow polls accordingly.
    Anthony Salvanto @SalvantoCBS
    Here's our latest poll and House model: Dems maintain edge, driven by continuing concerns about prices - and turnout gap w/Rs too
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  13. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Here's our latest poll and House model: Dems maintain edge, driven by continuing concerns about prices - and turnout gap w/Rs too
    CBS News Poll @CBSNewsPoll
    Our CBS News House model estimate shows the Dems retain their edge for a narrow majority of seats & their lead in national vote preference. The advantage is driven by opposition to Trump admin policies & a Rep base that is less likely to turnout.
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  14. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    So the GOP voters who don't think there's enough admin focus on inflation are less likely to vote - these "reluctant reps" aren't crossing party lines, but may stay home... surely the key to watch in coming weeks if this changes...or doesn't.
    CBS News Poll @CBSNewsPoll
    Dissatisfaction with prices may be impacting the GOP vote. Republicans are less likely to say they'll definitely turn out than Democrats are. Reps who say the admin isn't putting enough focus on prices are less likely to say they'll definitely vote than those who think it is.
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  15. CBS News Poll✓@CBSNewsPoll
    Dissatisfaction with prices may be impacting the GOP vote. Republicans are less likely to say they'll definitely turn out than Democrats are. Reps who say the admin isn't putting enough focus on prices are less likely to say they'll definitely vote than those who think it is.
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  16. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Anthony Salvanto
    RT @CBSNewsPoll: Who's responsible for today's economy, anyway? Voters have voiced concern about the economy since the pandemic. By a wide margin today, voters see Trump policies - not former President Joe Biden's - as responsible for today's economy.
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  17. CBS News Poll✓@CBSNewsPoll
    Our CBS News House model estimate shows the Dems retain their edge for a narrow majority of seats & their lead in national vote preference. The advantage is driven by opposition to Trump admin policies & a Rep base that is less likely to turnout.
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    2151113.1K
  18. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Anthony Salvanto
    RT @CBSNewsPoll: "The economy" today means prices. When asked what they use to gauge the economy, it’s prices. Most voters feel Trump's policies are making food & grocery prices go up. And feel the admin hasn't focused enough on lowering costs. Most think the Iran war is driving up gas prices. Dems continue to draw the votes of people who say prices have been difficult or a hardship.
    06026
  19. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Anthony Salvanto
    RT @CBSNewsPoll: People think both AI companies & the government share responsibility for ensuring AI development is handled appropriately.
    03029
  20. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Could AI on its own harm humans? It's been what everyone's talking about... Turns out there *is* some concern out there in public about that...
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  21. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Posts @SalvantoCBS
    Though even more that people or countries will use AI models to bring harm...
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  22. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Posts @SalvantoCBS
    But Americans do not want to stop AI altogether, as most do think the U.S. needs to develop AI to be competitive...
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  23. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    – Cool news to share! – We're teaming up with @VoteHub here at the @cbsnews Data Desk - for the '26 elex ...Teaming up for analytics, forecasts & all the great work they do - watch this space... Release link here:
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  24. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Posts @SalvantoCBS
    And oh yeah, if you want the coolest maps? follow @lukewines of @VoteHub (we'll have plenty on air for you too)
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  25. Anthony Salvanto@SalvantoCBS
    Posts @SalvantoCBS
    And you've probably already seen @ZacharyDonnini rolling out some of that great @votehub work on the Takeout w @MajorCBS - more to come there too -
    Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini
    Had a great time with @MajorCBS on @CBSNews’ The Takeout yesterday. It looks like a blue year, but the Senate remains a tossup. Why? The battleground is red. I explained how, to hold the chamber, Republicans just simply need to prevent the bottom from falling out.
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  26. Zachary Donnini✓@ZacharyDonnini
    Had a great time with @MajorCBS on @CBSNews’ The Takeout yesterday. It looks like a blue year, but the Senate remains a tossup. Why? The battleground is red. I explained how, to hold the chamber, Republicans just simply need to prevent the bottom from falling out.
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    1626395121K
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