On the subject of benchmarks, most of businesses have simple (free) benchmarks which are usually a great first start in forecasting.
Beware of data scientists throwing LSTM, Transformers and other complicated
#deeplearningmodels at the problems without first establishing simple benchmarks that are agreed with the business.
Below is a simple seasonal naive benchmark forecast on the electricity dataset that I have used in several of my Medium articles. It was produced 𝕨𝕚𝕥𝕙 𝕔𝕠𝕦𝕡𝕝𝕖 𝕠𝕗 𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕖𝕤 𝕠𝕗 𝕔𝕠𝕕𝕖 𝕦𝕤𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝔻𝕒𝕣𝕥𝕤 from Unit8 that I have extensively highlighted throughout 2021, great work by Julien Herzen and team.
What this clearly illustrates is that free out of the box forecasts are often quite good and unless
#datascientists can demonstrate that their forecasting models are better by robustly measuirng forecast value added months and often years of corporate resources should not be needlessly invested into spinning expensive deep learning models that in 99.9% cases ᴅᴏ ɴᴏᴛ ᴀɴʏ ᴠᴀʟᴜᴇ ᴛᴏ ᴍᴏꜱᴛ ᴏꜰ ᴛʜᴇ ᴄᴏᴍᴘᴀɴɪᴇꜱ.
𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐬 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐘𝐨𝐮 𝐃𝐨 𝐍𝐨𝐭 𝐍𝐞𝐞𝐝
#business #electricity #timeseries #machinelearning #forecasting #deeplearning