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Paul Blest
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Paul Blest

@pblest

work @moreperfectUS music @longreliefnc

2.9K Following23.1K Followers14.8K Posts
  1. Paul Blest@pblest
    New: A deep dive into the big business of welfare and means testing. Deloitte has made a fortune on error-prone eligibility systems for programs like SNAP and Medicaid. We went to Arkansas and talked to folks struggling to get help in a system designed to break them.
    More Perfect Union @MorePerfectUS
    NEW: The biggest welfare scam in the country is run by a consulting giant. Deloitte has made over $6 billion running error-prone eligibility systems that make it harder for Americans to get the healthcare and food aid they rely on. We investigated the big business of welfare.
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  2. More Perfect Union✓@MorePerfectUS
    NEW: The biggest welfare scam in the country is run by a consulting giant. Deloitte has made over $6 billion running error-prone eligibility systems that make it harder for Americans to get the healthcare and food aid they rely on. We investigated the big business of welfare.
    Download
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  3. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @PanasonicDX4500: we have finally reached the final stages of Brandonization
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    Philip Melanchthon Wegmann @PhilipWegmann
    Scoop: The White House delivered a warning to conservative groups on Thursday: We’re watching you
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  4. Philip Melanchthon Wegmann✓@PhilipWegmann
    Scoop: The White House delivered a warning to conservative groups on Thursday: We’re watching you
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  5. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @ChazNuttycombe: 🚨DATA CENTERS = ELECTORAL DEATH🚨 Two districts that were marked as Solid R in our forecasts saw huge Democratic overperformances, narrowly flipping one seat and narrowly losing another. These are districts where large data center projects are being built. KS HD-43 voted for Trump by 23 points in 2024; WV HD-18 voted for Trump by 57 points. Republican voters were absolutely outraged at the data centers and bolted to Democrats as a result. The Stratos Data Center project by Kevin O'Leary that has outraged Utahns is also why Utah Democrats are expected to greatly outperform our forecast; our forecasts performed well elsewhere in the West, but Utah proved to be a problem, and it's obvious why. In our Republican primary polling, we saw primary voters outraged with the project, and that rage transferred to the general electorate. This was especially the case in northern Utah, where voters are closer to the project. We've added a layer to our results pages where you can see the NavCast's projected margin by district for each state (data availability permitting) vs. our final forecast's projected margin, and it's just Republican death everywhere in Utah. The Economist saw this 3 weeks ahead of the election: Trump voters closer to a newly announced/built data center bolted to Democrats at much higher rates than Trump voters over 2km away. Going forward we're going to be tracking this and adding it to our forecasts in the near future so long as the issue continues to be electorally poisonous. National state legislative results:
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  6. Paul Blest@pblest
    I can think of higher numbers. 5.24 million for example
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    Kyle Becker @kylenabecker
    Big Problem With Texas Election Data — Nothing Is Adding Up
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  7. Kyle Becker✓@kylenabecker
    Big Problem With Texas Election Data — Nothing Is Adding Up
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  8. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @ashtonpittman: Just six years ago, Forrest County voters narrowly voted to keep a towering Confederate monument at the courthouse—a monument that stands opposite a monument to Vernon Dahmer. And now, they've voted for a Black U.S. senator.
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  9. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @ashtonpittman: Scott Colom, a Black Democrat, has flipped Forrest County—named for Ku Klux Klan founding grand wizard Nathan Bedford Forrest—by a 54%-44% margin. Trump won it 58%-40% in 2024. It's the county where the KKK murdered civil rights worker Vernon Dahmer.
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  10. Paul Blest@pblest
    When I posted this I thought “this seems crazy.” I wasn’t crazy enough apparently
    Paul Blest @pblest
    Where I’m at on big N.C. races and the Senate
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  11. Paul Blest@pblest
    Where I’m at on big N.C. races and the Senate
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  12. Paul Blest@pblest
    Posts @pblest
    I had McDowell on here and took him off because I figured he’d win by like 10 points. I now know it was completely impossible for two to flip and any other House Republican to be considered safe
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  13. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @Thorongil16: The only piece of data I will contribute to the Democratic Party Faction Fight is this: In the famously conservative Rio Grande Valley, House District 41 saw the congressional Dems get 35,777 votes (Pulido, Cuellar). Both ran as conservative Democrats. In the actual State House race, first-time progressive insurgent (who beat a conservative primary candidate), @JulioForRGV got 36,028, more than them. Got 361 fewer votes than Pulido in CD15 and 612 more votes in CD28. Make of that what you will.
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  14. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @ECaliberSeven: With that, barring any early retirements, the Kansas Supreme Court will remain majority Dem-appointed until *checks notes* 2047. Heck, it’s probably gonna remain 6D-1R until at earliest 2033.
    State Navigate @StateNavigate
    🚨RACE OVER🚨 Cindy Holscher (D) has defeated Ty Masterson (R) in the race for Kansas Governor Results
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  15. State Navigate✓@StateNavigate
    🚨RACE OVER🚨 Cindy Holscher (D) has defeated Ty Masterson (R) in the race for Kansas Governor Results
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  16. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @JessicaHuseman: Hell of a thing to demand states hand over voters’ personal information and require proof of citizenship, then refuse to vote yourself because you don’t want your address on the very voter rolls you think the federal government should have access to.
    FactPost @factpostnews
    Katie Miller admits she did not vote in the midterms
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  17. FactPost✓@factpostnews
    Katie Miller admits she did not vote in the midterms
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    9266145.3K2.5M
  18. Paul Blest@pblest
    The last Democrat to win this county in a presidential election was Roosevelt. The last non-Republican to win it was George Wallace
    reconstructionist_atheart @WMATASoldier
    Scott Colom appears set to win Forrest County, named after Nathan Bedford Forrest, who founded the Ku Klux Klan
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  19. reconstructionist_atheart@WMATASoldier
    Scott Colom appears set to win Forrest County, named after Nathan Bedford Forrest, who founded the Ku Klux Klan
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  20. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @dylanotes: NEW poll: A supermajority of Jewish Americans believe Israeli & AIPAC actions increase antisemitism. 80% say Israel’s actions in Gaza & the West Bank increase antisemitism in the US. 66% say AIPAC’s campaign spending against candidates critical of Israel increases antisemitism.
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  21. Paul Blest@pblest
    Same number of away wins this year too
    cynical @cynicalnyk
    Blue wave so big the Knicks won a house seat
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  22. cynical✓@cynicalnyk
    Blue wave so big the Knicks won a house seat
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  23. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @dancluchey: One of the most insane stats in an election full of them — had literally zero people showed up to vote for Talarico on Tuesday, he still would’ve won by 150k.
    BeshearStan @BeshearStan
    James Talarico received *more early votes* then Paxton received in TOTAL This race was over before it began 😭
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  24. BeshearStan✓@BeshearStan
    James Talarico received *more early votes* then Paxton received in TOTAL This race was over before it began 😭
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    3244.2K43.8K1.5M
  25. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @AsteadWH: Angie Nixon didn’t win her Democratic primary because of a weak state party. Voters chose her over a candidate who outspent her 10 to 1. Also no one outside of the national media bubble saw her through the lens of “DSA,” which is part of the reason she beat back the GOP caricature of that label, and shows the limits of this sort of analysis. Actual people chose an actual person — let’s start there
    Clipping Wings @ClippingWings
    Ezra Klein on the electoral performance of El-Sayed, Peggy Flanagan and Angie Nixon: Angie Nixon—I don't think there's any reason to look at the results and say it was a brilliant strategic move to run the DSA candidate in Florida. Sometimes people take statements about electoral performance as moral statements about the worth of a candidate or the ideas. That's crazy in my view.
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  26. Clipping Wings✓@ClippingWings
    Ezra Klein on the electoral performance of El-Sayed, Peggy Flanagan and Angie Nixon: Angie Nixon—I don't think there's any reason to look at the results and say it was a brilliant strategic move to run the DSA candidate in Florida. Sometimes people take statements about electoral performance as moral statements about the worth of a candidate or the ideas. That's crazy in my view.
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  28. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @idobadtakes: Really interesting. The conservative Indians voted against the racist French but held firm for Abbott. The rural whites abandoned Abbot over vouchers but still voted for the racist. Every R offended different Texans in their own unique way
    armin @Thorongil16
    Maps to come later. But comparing Gina Hinojosa (Gov) with Jon Rosenthal (Railroad Commissioner), really cool coalition splits. Hinojosa did better with rural whites. There were Hinojosa-Bo French voters, if you can believe it. Rosenthal did *MUCH* better with Indians and Pakistanis. Some precincts in Frisco and Sugar Land had 15-20 point ticket splits with Rosenthal-Abbott.
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  29. armin✓@Thorongil16
    Maps to come later. But comparing Gina Hinojosa (Gov) with Jon Rosenthal (Railroad Commissioner), really cool coalition splits. Hinojosa did better with rural whites. There were Hinojosa-Bo French voters, if you can believe it. Rosenthal did *MUCH* better with Indians and Pakistanis. Some precincts in Frisco and Sugar Land had 15-20 point ticket splits with Rosenthal-Abbott.
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  30. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @jherrerx: Struggling to imagine what Texas is going to look like in January. It’s like trying to picture a circular square
    Texas Tribune @TexasTribune
    Attorney General-elect Nathan Johnson says he won’t sue out-of-state doctors who mail abortion pills to Texas.
    022011
  31. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @AndrewSolender: It's actually wild how many Texas Republicans won 51-49 races. A few more points, a few more Dem ad dollars, and Texas could have been an NC-style wipeout for the GOP:
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  32. Texas Tribune✓@TexasTribune
    Attorney General-elect Nathan Johnson says he won’t sue out-of-state doctors who mail abortion pills to Texas.
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  33. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @JacobRubashkin: There’s a real irony in Republicans hoping that the late mail votes in Mississippi will rescue Cindy Hyde-Smith — just months after the RNC sued to void Mississippi’s ability to count late-arriving votes and lost at SCOTUS, 5-4.
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  34. Paul Blest@pblest
    Paul Blest
    RT @BRASILWIRE: Lula on Flávio Bolsonaro: “Jinx! Trump lost as soon as he arrived in the US”.
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