What should we do about high skilled immigration and why? This is the topic of my huge new report with @LettieriDC and @cojobrien: Exceptional by Design. Quick thread on why I think you should read this report.
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Adam Ozimek✓
@ModeledBehavior
Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: https://t.co/toyjfDruRu
1K Following93K Followers125K Posts
- Adam OzimekRT @phl43: I get being pissed off and losing your cool on this website, it also happens to me, but there are some people who seem to do nothing but getting into fights and insulting people. Almost every time I see one of their tweets, they are abusing someone and, when I check their profile to see if that’s just selection bias due to the algorithm boosting this kind of tweets, all I see is more tweets of them angrily berating people.04090
- I am supporter of Flock cameras. I think it would be bad if low trust in the government caused us to get rid of them. Think about things that cause low trust in the government. Those are problems.1821397.1K
- I want to use this to illustrate a market failure here. I want to read this nationally relevant Atlanta newspaper article, and I'd be willing to pay a little. But there's zero chance I am going to subscribe. I would click for one small payment, I'm not filling out forms.Patricia Murphy @MurphyAJCGov. Brian Kemp is well known to have a copious reading habit. One day he read that Audi was looking to build a U.S. manufacturing plant and the wheels started turning. @FitzTrubey has the amazing ticktock on the many years and dozens, maybe hundreds, of people it took to bring Audi to Georgia.261329419.2K
Gov. Brian Kemp is well known to have a copious reading habit. One day he read that Audi was looking to build a U.S. manufacturing plant and the wheels started turning. @FitzTrubey has the amazing ticktock on the many years and dozens, maybe hundreds, of people it took to bring Audi to Georgia.52415764.8K- Adam OzimekRT @Fritschner: The Cheesecake Factory stuff is a really good encapsulation of conservative discourse during the Obama era for folks not old enough to have experienced it. Endless whining and mind-loss over something they wouldn’t even notice if someone else said it. Eight years of that!09150103
- In a recent NYT debate, Paul Kedrosky claimed that 80% of Anthropic revenues come from 8 companies. He claimed Meta alone makes up 10%. As Azeem Azhar pointed out, this concentration was declining over time and we'd have an answer in the S-1. The S-1 tells us: "No single customer represented more than 10% of our revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2026. Approximately 79% of our revenue came from customers outside of our top five customers for the three months ended September 30, 2026, up from approximately 64% for the three months ended March 31, 2026." So that resolves it. Concentration is below the levels Kedrosky warned of, and falling.
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Ethan Mollick @emollickGiven how out-of-nowhere it seems to many, it is astonishing that there was a small group of people who predicted with remarkable accuracy everything that is happening in AI today a decade ago (@kevinroose shows this in The AGI Chronicles). Many are now very rich and/or powerful010557.7K
Given how out-of-nowhere it seems to many, it is astonishing that there was a small group of people who predicted with remarkable accuracy everything that is happening in AI today a decade ago (@kevinroose shows this in The AGI Chronicles). Many are now very rich and/or powerful104611.2K91.2K- Adam OzimekRT @phl43: It's funny that a lot of people in the replies object that such a comparison makes no sense, on the ground that unlike South Korea Poland has no global brands, but perhaps there is a lesson here about how the discourse on development shouldn't focus so much on shiny objects!Marcin Piatkowski @mmpiatkowskiPoland 🇵🇱 and South Korea 🇰🇷: two global growth champions with two different growth models and social outcomes. Over three decades both grew fast (4.2% vs 3.7% a year per capita) and reached the same productivity (~$52/hour), but with very different R&D spending: 1.4% vs 5.1% of GDP. On social outcomes, Poland ranks #24 in world happiness vs Korea's #67, with half the suicide rate and a third of the old-age poverty (13% vs 40%) 👇 The shared challenge: among the lowest fertility rates in the world, 1.07 and 0.80. @Noahpinion @KoreaEconInst0180114
Marcin Piatkowski@mmpiatkowskiPoland 🇵🇱 and South Korea 🇰🇷: two global growth champions with two different growth models and social outcomes. Over three decades both grew fast (4.2% vs 3.7% a year per capita) and reached the same productivity (~$52/hour), but with very different R&D spending: 1.4% vs 5.1% of GDP. On social outcomes, Poland ranks #24 in world happiness vs Korea's #67, with half the suicide rate and a third of the old-age poverty (13% vs 40%) 👇 The shared challenge: among the lowest fertility rates in the world, 1.07 and 0.80. @Noahpinion @KoreaEconInst
253927885.1K- Adam OzimekRT @benjedwards: I’ve revived my Apple II Agent project from January: An Apple IIe with an Ethernet card and a custom client It links to Claude through a Mac proxy and allows conversational Apple II software creation similar to Claude Code When it’s done, it loads the new program into memory0370114
- Adam OzimekRT @emollick: Two and a half years from this.
Dan Roberts @danintheoryWe are announcing three new discoveries in mathematics, computer science, and physics about harmonic analysis, complexity theory, and quantum field theory.046093 
We are announcing three new discoveries in mathematics, computer science, and physics about harmonic analysis, complexity theory, and quantum field theory.3041.1K7.1K2.2M- Adam OzimekRT @KelseyTuoc: I think it's only moderately embarrassing for Zitron that he got this stuff wildly wrong. It's valuable to have someone making the bear case! But it's extremely frustrating that he hasn't admitted this was completely incorrect and explained where he thinks he went wrong.Jon Evans @rezendiSome entertaining highlights from 20 months ago: - "Anthropic has projected (made up) that it will make at least $12 billion in revenue in 2027" - "This company is not worth $60 billion. Anthropic has raised $14.7 billion to create an also-ran Large Language Model company" - "Anthropic, much like OpenAI, has categorically failed to productize its Large Language Model" - "Its CEO is also a sleazy conman who, like Sam Altman, continually promises that his company's AI systems will become powerful and autonomous in a way that they have never shown any possibility of becoming." - "Any investor in Anthropic needs to seriously consider what it is they're investing in. Its products are both unpopular and commoditized, and it lost $5.6 billion last year! Stop dancing around this fact! Stop it!" - "there’s a lot of demand to put AI in stuff and some demand to buy stuff with AI on it by enterprises buying software, but little evidence to suggest significant user adoption or usage, I’d argue because Large Language Models do not lend themselves to features that provide meaningful business returns." - "When a company uses the term “agent,” they are intentionally trying to be deceitful, because the term “agent” means “autonomous AI that does stuff without you touching it.” The problem with this definition is that everybody has used it to refer to “a chatbot that can do some things while connected to a database,” which is otherwise known as a chatbot." - "It isn’t working. The users aren’t there. The revenue isn’t there. The best time to stop this was two years ago, and the next best time is as soon as humanly possible. I have said that generative AI is a group delusion in the past, and I repeat that claim today." - "we are approaching the limit of what the transformer-based architecture can do, if we haven’t already reached it. No amount of beating off about test-time compute and connecting Large Language Models to other Large Language Models is going to create a new use case for this technology" - "generative AI is OpenAI. The consumer adoption of this software has completely failed, and appears to be going nowhere fast. ChatGPT is sustained entirely on deranged, specious hype drummed up by a media industry" ... and my favorite ... - "I will keep writing this stuff until I’m proven wrong."0280114
Some entertaining highlights from 20 months ago: - "Anthropic has projected (made up) that it will make at least $12 billion in revenue in 2027" - "This company is not worth $60 billion. Anthropic has raised $14.7 billion to create an also-ran Large Language Model company" - "Anthropic, much like OpenAI, has categorically failed to productize its Large Language Model" - "Its CEO is also a sleazy conman who, like Sam Altman, continually promises that his company's AI systems will become powerful and autonomous in a way that they have never shown any possibility of becoming." - "Any investor in Anthropic needs to seriously consider what it is they're investing in. Its products are both unpopular and commoditized, and it lost $5.6 billion last year! Stop dancing around this fact! Stop it!" - "there’s a lot of demand to put AI in stuff and some demand to buy stuff with AI on it by enterprises buying software, but little evidence to suggest significant user adoption or usage, I’d argue because Large Language Models do not lend themselves to features that provide meaningful business returns." - "When a company uses the term “agent,” they are intentionally trying to be deceitful, because the term “agent” means “autonomous AI that does stuff without you touching it.” The problem with this definition is that everybody has used it to refer to “a chatbot that can do some things while connected to a database,” which is otherwise known as a chatbot." - "It isn’t working. The users aren’t there. The revenue isn’t there. The best time to stop this was two years ago, and the next best time is as soon as humanly possible. I have said that generative AI is a group delusion in the past, and I repeat that claim today." - "we are approaching the limit of what the transformer-based architecture can do, if we haven’t already reached it. No amount of beating off about test-time compute and connecting Large Language Models to other Large Language Models is going to create a new use case for this technology" - "generative AI is OpenAI. The consumer adoption of this software has completely failed, and appears to be going nowhere fast. ChatGPT is sustained entirely on deranged, specious hype drummed up by a media industry" ... and my favorite ... - "I will keep writing this stuff until I’m proven wrong."2443559152K- Cheesemonger doesn't sound like a cheese expert but a cheese monster2152.9K
- Posts @ModeledBehaviorYou only monger a few things. Cheese, fish, hate, war.3271.7K
- Adam OzimekRT @GovernorShapiro: Starting next school year, a bell-to-bell cell phone ban will take effect in every single Pennsylvania classroom. We’re getting back to the basics and keeping our classrooms focused on learning.01330104
- Adam OzimekRT @ProducerCities: "Suburbs are no longer the residential islands they used to be," said Dan Potter, director of the Houston Population Research Center at the Kinder Institute. "There are 'mini-cities' popping up all around the area"030121
- Cool chartEric Basmajian @EPBResearchAI productivity gains are showing up, but only in ~15% of jobs. The three heaviest AI adopters (information, professional services, finance) went from a 2.2% productivity trend to 5.0% since 2022. The rest of the economy: 0.9% to 1.4%.00163.7K
AI productivity gains are showing up, but only in ~15% of jobs. The three heaviest AI adopters (information, professional services, finance) went from a 2.2% productivity trend to 5.0% since 2022. The rest of the economy: 0.9% to 1.4%.
471971.2K141K- Adam OzimekRT @LeoAdberg: @Bloomberg churned through three completely different guys all playing the @TheStalwart character and thought we wouldn't notice0190125
- This reminds of the old concept of “guard labor” that Samuel Bowles used to write about0022.7K
- NoBBC News (UK) @BBCNewsBefore you crank up the thermostat, try these tips to keep your house warmer for longer30355.1K
Before you crank up the thermostat, try these tips to keep your house warmer for longer32022138802K- I already loved the last two mission impossible movies but I bet they hit different now even just a year and half later as AI danger has become more real31134.3K
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